Thursday, December 8, 2016

KATHMANDU: 9th to 31st December 2016. Location of closeby daily stress points

As Chistmas is approaching and thinking of all my friends in Nepal, I have tried hard to improve my software as best as I could, for now, and looked at every day from tomorrow 9th December to the end of the month for earthquakes. What I did is to examine, according to my methods, where the location could be, if it was possible for an earthquake to occur every day.  Obviously this is not the case and also I have focused near Kathmandu and not far away. Therefore this does not mean that an earthquake will happen on those days because the probability is very small for most of them. The calendar is more reliable due to clustering.  But suppose if it were to happen, my method tells me the location within reason. I have put them together in an animation because it is many charts, (22). As you can see not every day the danger is near Kathmandu, but for some days Kathmandu is suspect. What does that mean then? It means to me that those spots get some extra stress and maybe the stress is not enough to give us an earthquake, or the stress is enough to give in. The calendar helps here.
At this stage, I can highlight some 'sensitive' days where it is a little more possible to get an earthquake. The days I have filtered out are: 16th-17th December,  23-25th December and 28th December and 30th December. Note the calendar shows only 23-25th, as possible, and we have seen that the calendar is more reliable as it has been tested longer. But it could be a surprise and have more events, and we simply show that IF there is it could come on the dots. I will post again as time approaches for more details but for now that is all I can do.

Clearly this kind of presentation of future information has not been done before and we are the first to do this and offer you this information for free.So be understanding that this is research and there is certainly no need to panic, do not read more than there is in it and simply be a little more careful if you are worried on a day and get on with life as usual is my opinion.

Here is the location of the this year's >5R earthquakes so far in Nepal.

Finally the Calendar which we have already seen just a few extra lines below

You can read our methodology here.
You may also like:


  1. Faults in the area are capable of magnitude 8 or greater however this is not to say it will be M8 or that there will be one at all. But IF it were to happen, the graphs are the probable daily locations

    1. Thanks Tom. Exactly. However I doubt very much if conditions are right for such magnitude this month in Nepal. Just January is worse as Saturn hovers over Nepal. We will be posting in due course. Regards