Friday, October 23, 2015

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (>6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for >6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using planetary alignment seeds. © (2015) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Authors: A. C. Boucouvalas ; M. Gkasios ; N. T. Tselikas ; G. Drakatos

See the full journal article here

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  1. A C Boucouvalas A Keskempes, N Tselikas, Leading Time Domain Seismic Precursors” 2nd International Conf. on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation 2014, 7-10 April 2014 Paphos, Cyprus.

    AC Boucouvalas, A Keskempes, N Tselikas “ Seismicity map tools for earthquake studies”. General Assembly 2014 of the European Geosciences Union, (EGU) 27 April-2 May 2014, Vienna, Austria.

    AC Boucouvalas, A. Keskempes, N Tselikas “Deterministic Precursors for Earthquake Location” ECEES2014 Istanbul Turkey, 25-29 August 2014.

    A.C. Boucouvalas*, M. Gkasios, NT Tselikas, G. Drakatos
    Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas Method for Earthquake Prediction.
    Third International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment 2015, 16-19 March 2015, Cyprus

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