Monday, October 16, 2017

Jupiter-Mercury-Sun-Earth-Uranus Alignment


We are approaching the alignment of Jupiter-Mercury-Sun-Earth-Uranus Alignment as shown above, which will influence earthquakes on Earth. It is likely to be around the 19th October. Usually either one of the most quiet periods or one of the most active.
We will keep an eye. Be Safe B Good,...... EP.


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Sunday, October 15, 2017

Various Precursor Signals

The Kp index shown below has hit 5 and this indicates stronger some activity is due in a few days.
 I expect nearer 19th October.
The  Station A and K indices show the fluctuations in the magnetic field, tied to specific geographic locations.  The indices have a range from 0 to 9 and are directly related to the maximum amount of fluctuation (relative to a quiet day) in the geomagnetic field over a three-hour interval.


Below we see Schumann Resonances, spiking a little but this does not look serious to me yet. Overall then, today I would say the expectations are not great for major events.




The GOES magnetometer products are an integral part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) space weather operations, providing information on the general level of geomagnetic activity and permitting detection of magnetic storms and substorms. In addition, these measurements will be used to validate large-scale space environment models that will be added to SWPC operations in the future.
Historically, the data have been presented in the E (earthward), P (parallel) and N (normal) coordinate system where:
Hp:  magnetic field vector component, points northward, perpendicular to the orbit plane which for a zero degree inclination orbit is parallel to Earth's spin axis.
He:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and Hn and points earthward.
Hn:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and He and points eastward.
Ht:  the total field.
The GOES 3-day Hp plot shows the 1-minute averaged parallel component of the magnetic field in nanoTeslas (nT), currently measured at GOES-13 (~75 degrees west geographic longitude) and GOES-15 (~135 degrees west geographic longitude). The longitudes can vary, so for any particular case it is important to check the satellite location. A diurnal variation is observed in these data as a result of magnetospheric currents systems that, at geosynchronous orbit, produce a stronger magnetic field on the dayside of Earth and weaker magnetic fields on the nightside. If these data drop to near zero, or less, when the satellite is on the dayside, it may be due to a compression of the Earth's magnetopause into the geosynchronous orbit boundaries, exposing satellites to negative and/or highly variable magnetic fields. On the nightside, the smaller field values indicate strong currents in the magnetotail that are often associated with the stretching and subsequent release of energy in Earths tail. This is one signature of a “substorm” that results in aurora at Earth’s high latitudes and energetic particle injections in the vicinity of geosynchronous orbit.
Noon and midnight local time at the satellite are plotted as N and M. Default scaling is 0 to 200 nanoTesla. Non-default scaling to include infrequent extreme values is labeled in red to emphasize the change in scale.


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The morning Earthquake Review

Good Day to you all!
We have 6 hours in the day today on 15th October 2017, and we will examine the earthquakes so far. It is a day before Mercury becomes Apogee which is tomorrow. At the same time, geocentrically,  Mercury is opposite Uranus, and Mars opposite Chiron, are the major daily aspects, as can be seen in the chart below. Above we see the events which took place already, for example we show only the strongest events, >4 R. We see Japan lit first, Chile, Greece, Mexico, and Kuril Islands. The day is young, and we wish you a peaceful day.
Be Safe Be Good,
EP




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Saturday, October 14, 2017

15th October 2017 FDL coordinates


  1. British Columbia (52.3N, 121.4W)
  2. China (31.4N, 87.6E)
  3. Fiji possible
  4. Greece possible (37.3N, 22.3E, 27.3E)
  5. Japan (37.3N, 142.3)
  6. Kamchatka (52.3N, 157.26E)
  7. Nepal (27.3N, 28.5N, 87.3E) (27.3N, 88.3E)
  8. N. Zealand (37.3S, 172.37E, 177.3E)
  9. PNG (7.2S, 142.3E, 147.2E, 151.4E)
  10. Philippines (7.2N, 122.3E, 127.3E)
  11. Taiwan (22.3N, 121.2E)
  12. Alaska (61.4N, 148.4W)
  13. California (37.3N, 122.3W)
  14. Argentina (27.5S< 67.26W)
You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer
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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Schumann Resonances abound


This morning we see the Schumann Resonances spiking up in a manner that hint strongly for activity today as well. We saw yesterday some strong stuff, So lets see whats in stock for today. Be Safe Be Good.  EP


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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

California: Carbon Monoxide Hot Spots


California at 38.6N, 122.4W has 14,000ppbv concentration of CO. This is unusually high. From the image it seems we have a cluster around it.


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6.7R in Bouvet Island Region!


This is a relatively rare event, a most powerful 6.7R in Bouvet Island Regions as shown in the map above.

Magnitude

Mw 6.7
RegionBOUVET ISLAND REGION
Date time2017-10-10 18:53:37.5 UTC
Location54.12 S ; 8.29 E
Depth33 km
Distances3161 km SW of Maseru, Lesotho / pop: 119,000 / local time: 20:53:37.5 2017-10-10
3553 km S of Pretoria, South Africa / pop: 1,620,000 / local time: 20:53:37.5 2017-10-10
3581 km S of Windhoek, Namibia / pop: 269,000 / local time: 20:53:37.5 2017-10-10
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6.3R in TARAPACA, CHILE!


6.3 R has been registered in Chile! This was at the location shown 77km from Arica.

Magnitude

Mw 6.3
RegionTARAPACA, CHILE
Date time2017-10-10 06:32:19.9 UTC
Location18.63 S ; 69.59 W
Depth80 km
Distances281 km SW of La Paz, Bolivia, Plurinational State of / pop: 813,000 / local time: 02:32:19.9 2017-10-10
77 km E of Arica, Chile / pop: 186,000 / local time: 03:32:19.9 2017-10-10
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Monday, October 9, 2017

4.6R in Taiwan

4.6R in Taiwan as predicted, at the location shown on the map above
Magnitude

Mw 4.6
RegionTAIWAN REGION
Date time2017-10-08 23:29:50.9 UTC
Location22.43 N ; 121.43 E
Depth10 km
Distances117 km E of Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 1,520,000 / local time: 07:29:50.9 2017-10-09
47 km SE of Taitung City, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 111,000 / local time: 07:29:50.9 2017-10-09
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Sunday, October 8, 2017

6.1R in TONGA!

We were expecting a 5-6R today and here it is. We also said Fiji, and this is on between Fiji and Tonga, so not bad at all.

Magnitude

Mw 6.1
RegionTONGA
Date time2017-10-08 14:04:41.6 UTC
Location19.01 S ; 175.95 W
Depth10 km
Distances248 km N of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 03:04:41.6 2017-10-09
189 km NW of Pangai, Tonga / pop: 1,800 / local time: 03:04:41.6 2017-10-09
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Twelve years ago today: October 8 earthquake: Tragedy struck.

PESHAWAR: The 12th memorial of the devastating 2005 earthquake, which left nearly 100,000 people killed and hundreds of thousands homeless besides destroying the basic infrastructure, is being observed in the region on Sunday.
The day started with special prayers for the victims of the quake in mosques and at their graves followed by a one minute silence at 8am in remembrance of martyrs of the quake.
The main function of the day will be held at uppar ada presided over by President Azad Jammu and Kashmir Sardar Muhammad Masood Khan and participated by acting Prime Minister Raja Nasar Ahmad Khan to high light the significance of the day.
The memorial activities were started on Saturday with a walk organized by State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) led by Secretary of SDMA Zaheer Quraishi aimed to create awareness among the masses about precautionary measures to meet any catastrophe or disaster.

Kashmiri earthquake survivors seen carrying their children, suffering from pneumonia and acute diarrhoea, to a hospital in Muzaffarabad, December 4, 2006. REUTERS
The walk was participated by a large number of people belonging to civil society, government officials, traders and others holding banners about preparatory measures to deal such situations and renewal of enthusiasm to restart life.
The activity was followed by a candle lightening activity at Noluchi bridge, built after the quake and considered as a symbol of reaffirmation and reconstruction after devastation in the town, to remember the movement and people who left their loved ones during the quake.





The earthquake left a trail of death and destruction, primarily in Azad Kashmir and Hazara division of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The 7.6 quake had killed more than 90,000 people and dislocated over 3.5 million.
Most of the victims were from poor families living in small and dilapidated houses and buildings. Old mud houses caved in when the earthquake struck. Broken walls or collapsed roofs were reported from numerous villages in most of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The earthquake left a trail of death and destruction-APP
Panicked people came out of their houses, offices, markets, schools and other buildings as the powerful tremors continued for almost a minute. The aftershocks unnerved the people as they feared the buildings would collapse at any moment.
Most buildings were vacated immediately and people were seen standing on roads, streets and in lawns for an unusually long time.
The epicentre of the earthquake was where the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates collided and was only 19 kilometres away from the capital of AJK, Muzaffarabad.
The devastating earthquake, which continued for almost 45 seconds, caused massive destruction in the region.

Science behind the devastating earthquake

Geologists conclude that the subcontinent was once an island near Australia 65 million years ago. A massive earthquake caused it to collide with Asia, which created great mountain ranges such as the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush. The confluence of these three mountain ranges is a place named Jaglot in Gilgit-Baltistan, where the River Indus and Gilgit meet. Some part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir is considered part of Central Asia, while the rest is considered part of the subcontinent. This was why the Neelum valley was largely spared from the destruction in the 2005 earthquake. In fact, not even a single house collapsed on the northern side of the valley. Apart from a few landslides – which cut off communication between the valley and the rest of the country – no major damage was caused.
The capital of AJK, Muzaffarabad is located on the crossing of two fault lines. In the north, a fault line named Himalayan Thrust is located while on the western side, Main Boundary Thrust is located. The 2005 earthquake occurred on the Himalayan Thrust and the epicentre of the quake lay only 19 kilometres northwest of the city.
Geologists say that ever since the confluence of the tectonic plates, both are moving towards each other, causing energy to be generated and when the energy finds its releasing point, it causes an earthquake. However, it is not necessary that an earthquake is only caused due to the release of this energy. Other factors could also affect the phenomenon.
In the 2005 earthquake, only five percent energy caused by the collision of the tectonic plates was released, and the geologist had warned about it in the past. However, their warnings fell on deaf ears. If the houses in the affected areas had been constructed according to modern earthquake-proof techniques, then the death toll could have been a lot lower.
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OCTOBER 2017: Jupiter-Mercury-Sun-Earth-Uranus Alignment

On October 17th this year, we see the imperfect but troublesome alignment of a series of planets bound to cause some earthquakes on Earth. We see from the figure below Jupiter -Mercury-Sun-Earth and Uranus to try to align. The imperfect alignment means we may see increased activity before or after this date. We hope to have more on this in due course. Be Safe be Good! EP.



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Saturday, October 7, 2017

MERCURY OPPOSITE EARTH: Tomorrow 8th October 2017

Tomorrow is 8th October 2017, and there is ONE Major Heliocentric aspect with is bound to cause a 5R-6R event. We have MERCURY opposite EARTH. At the same time not as perfect we see MARS-VENUS-EARTH getting slowly into alignment, as can be seen below. This last aspect cannot be picked up from the chart above which is for aspects looking from the SUN.

Countries which may have some stress are Alaska, (peaks 9th), Chile, Fiji shows increasing tendence to the 10th October, Japan, Pakistan/Afghanistan, Taiwan.




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CALIFORNIA: October-November-December 2017--- FDL Method

Based on our published FDL Technique, we here apply it and test it as a predicting tool for determining the dates of earthquakes. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.
Just to show you the power of our techniques, which allow predictions of dates and coordinates of epicenters, we simply here give you the results of our methods for the next 3 months! No other method to our knowledge offers coordinate as well as LONG TERM precision as our own FDL and variants. We can do easily a year AHEAD! There are of course improvements to be made, but we find on a daily basis plenty of evidence of its potential.

For October we observe that there is a Medium* probability to have an earthquake >=4R in the region of California on 12th 23rd and 28th October 2017. Other dates  are possible as you can see from the calendar below:


(Note the scales are not Richeter nor logarithmic).
The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)




You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer
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NEPAL: October 2017 --- FDL Method


Based on our published FDL research techniques, we here apply them as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of earthquakes. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram we can see Nepal Earthquake Predictions for the period of October 2017.

For this period we observe that there is a High* probability to have an earthquake >= 4R in Nepal on October 21st-26th 2017 other dates are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)

You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer


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Global earthquake ALERT: California told to prepare for 'BIG ONE' after Mexico tremors

THE SERIES of large earthquakes that brought death and destruction to Mexico last month may have triggered a chain reaction of tremors on the global scale. Mexico was rattled last month when the biggest earthquake in more than a century, measuring 8.1 on the Richer Scale, struck off its southern coast, killing 90.

Then, just over a week later, Mexico City was virtually flattened by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that reduced entire communities to rubble and killed 300. In the following days a swarm of tremors greater than magnitude 5.0 continued to blight the nation. These tremors were thought to be “aftershocks”, when stress is transferred from one fault line to another close by. Natural disaster specialist Dr Simon Day told Daily Star Online similar aftershocks may have caused the record magnitude 8.1 quake through a process known as “stress triggering”. earthquake warning GETTY TREMOR THREAT: The earthquakes in Mexico may have global consequences, experts believe Mexico City devastated by 7.1 magnitude earthquake – dozens dead Devastation has hit Mexico City as a massive earthquake collapsed buildings and killed dozens 1 / 15 People remove debris of a building which AFP/Getty Images People remove debris of a building which People remove debris of a building which Picture of debris of the facade of a bui 7.1 earthquake shakes Mexico's capital Picture of debris of the facade of a bui He said: “For several months leading to the big 8.1 earthquake, there was a sequence of smaller earthquakes on a zone further south. “This may have stressed the deep fault zone that produced the 8.1 earthquake. “That then stressed the fault zone in the part of the slab further north that produced the 7.1 earthquake a week later." Dr Day, of University College London, said research shows this process could continue in the coming weeks and months, causing small and large earthquakes on neighbouring fault lines. mexico earthquake USGS POWERFUL: A map shows the epicentre of the magnitude 8.1 earthquake in Mexico Then, just over a week later, Mexico City was virtually flattened by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that reduced entire communities to rubble and killed 300.
In the following days a swarm of tremors greater than magnitude 5.0 continued to blight the nation.
These tremors were thought to be “aftershocks”, when stress is transferred from one fault line to another close by.
Natural disaster specialist Dr Simon Day told Daily Star Online similar aftershocks may have caused the record magnitude 8.1 quake through a process known as “stress triggering”.



earthquake warning GETTY
TREMOR THREAT: The earthquakes in Mexico may have global consequences, experts believe
He said: “For several months leading to the big 8.1 earthquake, there was a sequence of smaller earthquakes on a zone further south.
“This may have stressed the deep fault zone that produced the 8.1 earthquake.
“That then stressed the fault zone in the part of the slab further north that produced the 7.1 earthquake a week later."
Dr Day, of University College London, said research shows this process could continue in the coming weeks and months, causing small and large earthquakes on neighbouring fault lines.
mexico earthquake USGS
POWERFUL: A map shows the epicentre of the magnitude 8.1 earthquake in Mexico
 
 
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/650352/mexico-earthquake-california-warning-prepare-global-chain-reaction 
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5.1R shakes Ecuador


A 5.1R earthquake shakes Ecuador 6km North f Palora! This was registered at the location shown on the maps above.


Magnitude

Mw 5.1
RegionECUADOR
Date time2017-10-07 09:26:13.4 UTC
Location1.65 S ; 77.93 W
Depth148 km
Distances170 km SE of Quito, Ecuador / pop: 1,400,000 / local time: 04:26:13.4 2017-10-07
21 km S of Puyo, Ecuador / pop: 24,900 / local time: 04:26:13.4 2017-10-07
6 km N of Palora, Ecuador / pop: 6,500 / local time: 04:26:13.4 2017-10-07
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Nine earthquakes recorded in southern Spain in just one day

SPAIN’S National Geographic Institute (IGN) has registered nine earthquakes in just 24 hours in Andalucia in southern Spain.
The initial quake, centred on the town of El Saucejo in the province of Sevilla had a magnitude of 4.2 on the Richter scale.
The epicentre was detected at a depth of eleven kilometres.
Several smaller aftershocks followed with magnitudes ranging between 1.5 and 2.8, at  depths between 11 and 12 kilometres.
There are no reports of injuries or damage.
The seismic activity comes in the same week that Malaga province experienced four small earthquakes in less than 24 hours when the villages of Campillos, Colmenar and Teba experienced a combined total of four small earthquakes.

Each year, between 1,200 and 1,400 tremors are recorded in the Iberian peninsula.
The last deadly quake in Spain was in  May 2011 when eleven people died and more than 400 were injured after two 5.4 and 4.5 quakes  caused extensive damage in the town of Lorca, in Murcia.
On November 1, 1755, an 8.5-magnitude quake that originated southwest of Cape St. Vincent created a 15-metre tsunami that hit Western Europe and northern Africa, making it the greatest quake-related tragedy ever recorded in Spain, according to the IGN.This event went down in history as the Lisbon earthquake because of the destruction it caused to the Portuguese capital, where an estimated 15,000 people lost their lives, but the Spanish provinces of Huelva and Cádiz were also affected.

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/3.0.15/news/on-euro-weekly-news/spain-news-in-english/145926-nine-earthquakes-recorded-in-southern-spain-in-one-day
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Do earthquakes have a ‘tell’?

Researchers have long had good reason to believe that earthquakes are inherently unpredictable. But a new finding from Northwestern University might be a seismic shift for that old way of thinking.
An interdisciplinary team recently discovered that “slow earthquakes,” which release energy over a period of hours to months, could potentially lead to nearby “regular earthquakes.” The finding could help seismologists better forecast some strong earthquakes set to occur within a certain window of time, enabling warnings and other preparations that may save lives.
“While the build-up of stress in the Earth’s crust is largely predictable, stress release via regular earthquakes is more chaotic in nature, which makes it challenging to predict when they might occur,” said Kevin Chao, a data science scholar in the Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems. “But in recent years, more and more research has found that large earthquakes in subduction zones are often preceded by foreshocks and slow earthquakes.”
Supported by the National Science Foundation, the research was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. Chao, who is also a member of Northwestern’s Center for Optimization and Statistical Learning, served as the paper’s first author. Suzan van der Lee, a professor of earth and planetary sciences in Northwestern’s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences, also contributed to the work.
Chao and his colleagues began their work several years ago by turning to a region within Taiwan, home to approximately 100 seismic stations that have continuously recorded ground motion for years. It was there the team noticed deep tremors, a type of slow earthquake that typically recurs in days- or weeks-long cycles.
“Deep tremor is very sensitive to small stress changes,” Chao said. “So, we decided to use them as stress meters to monitor local variations in stress build-up and release before and after large earthquakes.”
To detect and monitor this deep tremor activity, Chao’s team developed a sophisticated set of algorithms and applied it to data from 10 seismic stations in Taiwan. They discovered that deep tremor started to change its behavior about two months before the occurrence of a 6.4-magnitude earthquake in March 2010 in southern Taiwan. The tremor’s duration, for example, increased by two-fold before this event and continued to increase afterwards.
Although deep tremor was first reported in 2002, scientists have not found many cases in which behavior changed before large earthquakes. “After the 6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred, we noticed a potential to study deep tremor near the event,” Chao said. “We identified the increase in tremor duration three weeks before the earthquake, but we initially could not draw conclusions because tremor rates increase all the time and for different reasons.
But three years after the 6.4-magnitude, Chao and his colleagues noticed that their observations of tremor activity coincided with nearby a GPS recording, which indicated a flip in the direction of ground motion near tremor sources.
By combining data from earth observatories, such as GPS and seismic stations, with statistics and a series of algorithms, the team showed that changes in deep tremor patterns could signal an impending earthquake nearby. To further test the finding, Chao examined four additional earthquakes and discovered that similar precursory patterns did exist. He and Van der Lee hope that this work will inspire more data-driven research in the seismology field.
“Much more data analysis of these tiny but fascinating tremor signals is necessary,” he said, “before mid- to short-term earthquake forecasting become reliable.”
Northwestern University
 
http://gearsofbiz.com/do-earthquakes-have-a-tell/106953
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Alfonso Cuaron launches campaign for Mexico earthquake relief

Filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron has launched a multi-platform campaign called Mexico Rises, to provide relief to communities in Mexico impacted by the massive September 19earthquake. Reportedly, the Oscar-winning director's production company, Esperanto Filmoj, has backed the funds. "The devastating earthquakes in Mexico have elicited a deeply moving response from the Mexican people. In the history of our community, we have never been so informed, united, and connected as we are right now.


"Citizens have taken this matter into their own hands and have selflessly and tirelessly worked together to come to the aid of their neighbours. Following their inspiring lead, I'm compelled to take action and join them to help begin the reconstruction of our beautiful country as it starts to recover from these tragic events," Cuaron said in a statement.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/english/hollywood/news/alfonso-cuaron-launches-campaign-for-mexico-earthquake-relief/articleshow/60982329.cms
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Watch: Is Mexico's breathing pavement hiding monsters beneath?

Is Mexico hiding human subterranean creatures or gory monsters underneath its high rises? Locals are claiming that to be true. Your childhood nightmares might just come true with the boogeyman creeping out of the cracks of the pavements. Locals are gathering around to watch this freaky phenomenon. National Geographic's recently uploaded video is already a rage on Twitter having garnered over 2K likes.
Morelos in Mexico is witnessing this crazy phenomenon and people simply cannot get over it. The cracked tarmac in the video can be seen moving up and down as if breathing heavily. It looks like as if monsters are trying to break through the pavements or maybe some extraterrestrial creatures? Remember that scene from Steven Spielberg's 2005 science fiction thriller War of the Worlds, where Tom Cruise witnesses a massive "Tripod" war machine emerge from the ground?

Sadly, science always comes up with brilliant findings putting an unfortunate end to our fantasy world.
The breathing pavements were spotted after Mexico faced the most destructive earthquake in September 2017. The phenomenon according to National Geographic was first spotted by local resident Rigoberto Lechuga Silva on September 19, minutes after the 7.1 M earthquake rippled the city. He first noticed a trembling lamp post and took out his phone to record the whole incident without further delay. Silva posted his video on YouTube which was then shared by various other social media platforms.

Geophysicist Mika McKinnon, in a Tweet, confirmed that liquefaction was the primary cause of the phenomenon. She stated that Mexico City was built on a watery terrain and in the 14CE  the Aztec city of Tenochtitlan was built on an island which stood in the heart of the region. The area was later drained by the Spanish that led the sediments to settle down beneath the city. The sediments are still saturated by pockets of air and water.
Seismic waves rising from earthquakes make the sedimentary particles flow as liquid, in a process known as liquefaction. Susan Hough, a USGS seismologist told National Geographic that the heaving of the asphalt beneath is causing the liquefaction.
"During large earthquakes, you can get sandy soils venting to the surface in pulses," she said. "The twist here is that you have pavement over the ground."
After the 2011 earthquake, Japan too witnessed a similar incident of a breathing pavement. San Francisco too is susceptible to the process of liquefaction, according to a USGS report.
The process of liquefaction in big cities is extremely dangerous. It weakens the soil upon which the tall city structures are built, triggering landslides and leading to collapse of buildings or the ground, thus unleashing your most feared demons.  
http://www.ibtimes.sg/watch-monsters-den-beneath-mexicos-breathing-pavement-17643




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Megathrust earthquake' could kill thousands

Scientists have warned a "megathrust" earthquake could release 2000 times more energy than the 2011 Christchurch earthquake that killed 185 people.
The risk comes from the Hikurangi subduction zone, a fault that runs along East Coast where the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates collide.
A megathrust earthquake could kill thousands. Photo / GNS
A megathrust earthquake could kill thousands. Photo / GNS
Scientists are discussing the risks it poses at a summit in Napier this week.
They say it could trigger a massive 8.4 magnitude quake, that would cripple the lower North Island.

GNS Scientist Dr Laura Wallace told TVNZ the area had "the potential to produce the world's largest earthquake and tsunamis".
Marcus Hayes-Jones from Napier Civil Defence said he "can't emphasise how serious" New Zealand must take this "genuine risk".
In 2015 scientists uncovered evidence that two major "megathrust" earthquakes that triggered both the 2011 Japanese and 2004 Boxing Day tsunamis hit central New Zealand in the past 1000 years.
The breakthrough discovery had confirmed the risk this type of earthquake, more powerful and potentially destructive than normal quakes, poses to New Zealand.
GNS Science earthquake risk analyst Nick Horspool said if a Japanese-style quake of the same magnitude were to hit central New Zealand, thousands of people could be killed and tens of billions of dollars lost.
'Megathrust earthquakes' triggered both the 2011 Japanese and 2004 Boxing Day tsunamis.
'Megathrust earthquakes' triggered both the 2011 Japanese and 2004 Boxing Day tsunamis.
Horspool estimated the potential impact using a computer model.
"If it was a magnitude 9, we'd have really strong shaking the whole way up the East Coast of the North Island and even the top of the South Island - intensities near [to] what was experienced in Christchurch.
"There would be widespread damage, damage to buildings and infrastructure, and following that you would then have a tsunami."
He said the tsunami would devastate the coastal areas and cause further destruction to buildings and infrastructure.
The exact number of casualties would depend on how many people were able to self-evacuate.
"Because it's going to be a large, strong shaking... then 10 minutes later there will be the tsunami coming."
Horspool said in the event of a tsunami, wooden buildings were probably more vulnerable than concrete ones.
"We don't have direct evidence from New Zealand events... but what was seen in Japan was that the wood buildings were a lot more vulnerable than the multi-storey concrete buildings."
A
A "megathrust" earthquake could release 2000 times more energy than the 2011 Christchurch earthquake that killed 185 people.
A combination of elevation above sea level and distance from shore defined the extent of tsunami-prone areas.
Subduction quakes are different from normal earthquakes in that they occur on the under the surface of the upper plate - where two tectonic plates meet - instead of on faults within the upper plate.
They have the potential to be bigger in magnitude than fault ruptures closer to the surface, tend to affect larger areas, and are more likely to trigger a tsunami.
The study's lead author, Kate Clark from GNS Science, said the findings were significant as they helped to further understand earthquake and tsunami hazards in the lower North Island and upper South Island.
"Subduction earthquakes are not a 'new' risk for New Zealand, as we have always assumed they can occur, and they are accounted for in our seismic hazard models," she said.
"This study is significant in that it confirms that risk."
Although the evidence from just two earthquakes was still not enough to calculate when the next subduction earthquake would occur, or its exact magnitude, she said: "It [was] most likely to be greater than magnitude 7."
Scientists have previously found evidence of subduction earthquakes occurring under Hawkes Bay, but this was the first time they had found direct geological evidence that the southern part of the Hikurangi Margin could rupture in an earthquake.
They identified the quakes from sediment cores extracted from Big Lagoon, a large coastal lake east of Blenheim.
The older of the two earthquakes identified at Big Lagoon also triggered a three-metre-high tsunami that travelled inland about 360m.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11930695
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