Friday, September 22, 2017

Mexico's back-to-back earthquakes, explained by a seismologist

The quake that hit Mexico City today comes less than two weeks after a magnitude 8.1 quake struck the country

The second major earthquake to strike Mexico in less than two weeks has caused catastrophic damage in the country’s capital. The magnitude 7.1 temblor started at around 1:15PM — cracking highways, collapsing buildings, and, so far, killing more than 50 people.
Less than two weeks ago on September 7th (local time), a magnitude 8.1 quake struck roughly 400 miles southeast from today’s. It’s not common to hear of such strong earthquakes happening back-to-back so close to one another, says John Bellini, a geophysicist with the US Geological Survey. “Usually you don’t have large ones in the same general region right away,” Bellini says. “But in highly [seismically] active regions of the world, it can happen.”
Mexico qualifies as highly active. The country sits at the boundary of three pieces of the Earth’s crust that fit together like a jigsaw puzzle — called tectonic plates. Today’s quake originated on a fault within the Cocos plate, which is on Mexico’s western edge. “Whether or not faults rupture depends on the kind of stress that builds up,” Bellini says. The Cocos plate scoots rapidly under the continental crust of the North American plate, which “builds up the stress and strain at a faster rate,” Bellini says. “So you’re liable to have more frequent earthquakes because of that.”
Mexico sits at the boundary of three tectonic plates: the Cocos plate, the North American plate, and the Pacific plate.
Mexico sits at the boundary of three tectonic plates: the Cocos plate, the North American plate, and the Pacific plate. 
Mexico City is especially prone to severe damage because of the ground it sits on — an ancient lakebed that quivers like jello, Bellini says. When earthquake waves pass through it, it jiggles, magnifying the vibrations. “So the reason that Mexico City seems susceptible to more damage is because of this amplification effect of the lake bed,” Bellini says.
At this point, a reasonable person might wonder whether the September 8th quake might have triggered today’s. But the epicenters of the two quakes are about 400 miles apart, and it’s unusual for such a strong aftershock to appear this long after a major quake. So it’s unlikely the two are related, Bellini says. “Usually to have something directly related, they happen within minutes of each other, whereas this has been a week and a half,” Bellini says. “But I’m sure somebody will study that to see if there’s any kind of relationship.”
There’s another coincidence, too: Today’s earthquake falls on the 32nd anniversary of the 1985 Mexico quake that left roughly 10,000 people dead. But Bellini says not to read into the timing too much. There’s no such thing as an earthquake season, and earthquakes can happen at any time: “There’s no particular time of year that earthquakes happen over another. They’re not weather related.”
Unlike most natural disasters, there’s no way to predict or forecast earthquakes. That makes preparation way more important, whether it’s through building codes or earthquake drills like the one Mexico City conducted earlier today. Though it is tempting to be lulled into complacency during seismically quiet periods, planning ahead is still the only defense for earthquakes.
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Mexico is in the worst possible place for earthquakes — here's why it keeps getting hit

If giants were playing a game of Jenga with countries as their table-tops, Mexico would be one of the last locations to get picked.
The country sits atop three of the Earth's largest tectonic plates — the North American plate, the Cocos Plate, and the Pacific Plate. Whenever these chunks of crust grind or butt up against one another, earthquakes happen. As a former lakebed, Mexico City is also home to soft soil that essentially acts as an amplifier for tremors, often making smaller earthquakes feel much larger.
On Tuesday, a deadly quake reverberated along the boundary between the Cocos and the North American plate as the southern-most plate slid beneath its northern neighbor. The 7.1-magnitude temblor, which struck about 3 miles northeast of the city of Raboso, happened less than two weeks after the country was struck by an even more powerful 8.1-magnitude quake and 32 years to the day after a deadly magnitude 8.1 quake killed more than 9,500 people in Mexico City.
Mexico is one of the most seismically active countries in the world. Over the past century, the country has seen 19 earthquakes within 155 miles of the epicenter of today's earthquake, according to the US Geological Survey. Earthquakes aren't the only local hazard, either — the region is also repeatedly subject to volcanic eruptions.
mexico city earthquake Rescue workers and volunteers search a building that collapsed after an earthquake in the Roma neighborhood of Mexico City on Tuesday. AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo
South of today's earthquake epicenter, two volcanoes — El Chichón and Volcán de Colima— erupted in 1982 and 2005, respectively. Two other active volcanoes southeast of Mexico City called Popocatépetl and Ixtaccíhuatl occasionally vent visible gas, and the former erupted most recently in 2010.
Much of Mexico City is built on a former lakebed, where soft soil has been found to intensify the effects of earthquakes. A paper published shortly after the area's 1985 earthquake found that the shaking had been amplified by as much as 500% in regions near the epicenter where the soil was the softest. Since then, the city has taken some steps to manage the risk from future quakes — such as updating building codes near the capital and launching an earthquake early warning system — but many parts of the country still suffer from a lack of safe infrastructure.
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Mumbai inundated after more than a month's worth of rain in 24 hours

Less than a month after Mumbai was flooded by unusually high rainfall that killed many people, the metropolis has again experienced near-record rainfall that caused widespread flooding on Wednesday, September 20, 2017. It is the second wettest September day in IMD's over 100-year recorded history. At least 5 people have been killed.
Between 08:30 Tuesday and 08:30 Wednesday, the Santacruz weather station, representative of Mumbai and its suburbs, recorded 303.7 mm (11.95 inches), and Colaba, representative of south Mumbai, recorded 210 mm (8.26 inches) of rain, the highest for south Mumbai this monsoon, according to data collected by India Meteorological Department and reported by the Hindustan Times.
The city was just 14.5 mm (0.57 inches) short of the all-time high 24-hour September rainfall of 318.2 mm (12.52 inches) recorded on September 12, 1981. The last days’ rainfall was also the highest in a decade since September 4, 2012, when the city received 185.3 mm (7.29 inches) rain. Mumbai’s average rainfall for September is 312.3mm (12.29 inches).
Met officials said the city has recorded 536.4 mm (21.1 inches) in September. The total rainfall this season is at 2879.5 mm (113.36 inches) as against the annual average of 2258 mm (88.89 inches).
As reported by the Hindustan Times, waterlogging was reported in Borivali, Sion, Hindmata in Dadar, Goregaon, Andheri, Kandivali, Malad, Kharghar, Mankhurd, and Bhandup.
Suburban train services, the city’s lifeline, on all three lines were suspended on Tuesday night. Though the services resumed on Wednesday, many trains were suspended due to flooded tracks while several others were running late, officials said.
56 flights have been diverted to different airports and nearly 180 canceled on Tuesday and Wednesday as Mumbai's main runway was blocked when a SpiceJet aircraft skidded off the runway and got stuck in the mud. Airport services were restored Wednesday night.
At least five people have been killed in Palghar district. "They drowned in nullahs and rivers in separate incidents," a senior district administration official said.
Bad weather across the region is expected to be over by the end of the weekend.
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4.5R in Kamchatka

4.5R in Kamchatka is another late event by a day but the coordinates we predicted were (52.2N, 159.4E) are pretty close to the epicenter.


mb 4.5
Date time2017-09-22 05:04:04.6 UTC
Location54.79 N ; 159.50 E
Depth131 km
Distances1852 km NE of Sapporo-shi, Japan / pop: 1,884,000 / local time: 14:04:04.6 2017-09-22
202 km N of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russian Federation / pop: 188,000 / local time: 17:04:04.6 2017-09-22
137 km S of Esso, Russian Federation / pop: 2,000 / local time: 17:04:04.6 2017-09-22
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5.5R in Gulf of California.

This 5.5R in the Gulf of California, we expected yesterday, arrived late as far as we are concerned. Fo our yesterday predictions for Mexico we gave two locations one of which was (20.2N, 106.2W) This is closest to the one we are reporting today.


Mw 5.5
Date time2017-09-22 05:33:46.0 UTC
Location23.60 N ; 108.47 W
Depth2 km
Distances621 km NW of Guadalajara, Mexico / pop: 1,641,000 / local time: 00:33:46.0 2017-09-22
197 km E of La Paz, Mexico / pop: 172,000 / local time: 23:33:46.0 2017-09-21
138 km SW of El Dorado, Mexico / pop: 14,200 / local time: 23:33:46.0 2017-09-21
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Videoclip of ground motion during the 7.1R earthquake in Mexico.

Ground motion during the magnitude 7.1 Puebla, Mexico earthquake


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Two Mexico City earthquakes exactly 32 years apart. Two very different responses

At 22 million people, metropolitan Mexico City is the largest urban area in our hemisphere. As the capital of New Spain, it governed a massive empire, stretching from the Philippines to Utah. The symbol of the eagle and the snake, which is at the center of our flag and on the seal of the city of Los Angeles (on the lower left corner), commemorates its founding. It is a modern-day megalopolis with pyramids, cathedrals, skyscrapers, huge parks and frantic urban blight. Uber’s biggest urban market is a mecca for foodies and culture.
It is also in the center of a geological mosh pit.
On Sept. 19, 1985, an earthquake registering 8.1 on the Richter scale struck Mexico City. Partly because of inadequate building codes, the death toll reached upward of 20,000 people. Electricity, telephones, the airport, the subway — all were down for several days.
The government’s failure was especially glaring. Insular and out of touch after 56 years of single-party rule, then-President Miguel de la Madrid responded testily to offers of international help by declaring, “We are self-sufficient.” We were not, but we tried to be. In collective shock at the lack of response from their government, Mexicans self-organized. We coordinated massive relief efforts that saved many thousands of lives, and we rebuilt astonishingly fast.
 'One thing that has not changed: the awe-inspiring selflessness and generosity that Mexicans show in crises.'
In 2000, when de la Madrid’s Institutional Revolutionary Party finally handed power over to the opposition, newly elected President Vicente Fox would declare that modern democracy in Mexico was the product of civil society finding its strength after the 1985 earthquake.
Exactly 32 years later, on Sept. 19, 2017, a combination trepidatory (up-and-down) and oscillatory (side-to-side) 7.1 earthquake hit, 12 days after a nearby oscillatory 8.2 quake. The Richter scale measures energy released, not the violence of the quake, which has more to do with location, depth and geological characteristics of the affected area. So the 7.1 felt 10 times worse than the 8.2. You’ve seen the videos shot around the city by stunned citizens — and they are terrible.
But unlike in 1985, government, civil society and the building codes are much more resilient. Electricity, telephones, the airport, the subway — all are functioning. In what has to be one of the great coincidences of the decade, two hours before the earthquake struck, the city performed its annual seismic drill. (It takes place on the anniversary of the 1985 quake.) We have an earthquake early warning system mounted on each of the city’s 15,000 CCTV cameras. Up to 90 seconds’ warning can make the difference between deaths in the hundreds or the thousands.
Thirty-two years ago, the federal government turned away help that already had arrived at the Mexico City airport (including a Swiss canine unit trained to find bodies after an avalanche — a transferable skill. My father, the ambassador to Switzerland at the time, managed to get them into the city despite official disapproval.). This time, the Mexican tax authorities are waving import duties on international goods sent to help emergency efforts. Cellphone service is available, and Wi-Fi hot spots are free. Uber is shuttling volunteers to rescue operations. Amazon Mexico teamed up with the Red Cross to create a massive relief “wish list” so good Samaritans can donate directly. Google Maps has helped us identify the location of collapsed buildings so we can channel aid there.
In his weekly column, Mexican journalist Leo Zuckermann declared himself twice as proud today as he was in 1985 to be a Chilango, as we Mexico City residents call ourselves. He’s proud to see how all of our efforts, and billions of dollars, have paid off in earthquake preparedness. But he’s also proud to see evidence of other seismic changes.
Since 1985, we have built what is arguably the most sophisticated electoral system in the world. We have gone from being a country dependent on petrodollars to one that is a major manufacturing powerhouse, with a diversified economy that is among the biggest in the world.
One thing that has not changed: the awe-inspiring selflessness and generosity that Mexicans show in crises. It was the driving force behind the civilian activism that would transform the country in the 1980s and 1990s. And it is evident today, even (perhaps especially) among the more than half of the population that hadn’t been born in 1985. That is particularly relevant now, when egotism is not only ubiquitous, but often celebrated. Not here. Not today.
Of course there’s more work to be done. There always is. But if we created a democracy from the rubble of 1985, we can strengthen that democracy from the rubble of 2017, ending corruption and impunity in the same way that we ended single-party rule.
As the dust settles, the signs are good.
Agustín Barrios Gómez is a former federal congressman for Mexico City and president of the Mexico Image Foundation. @AgustinBarriosG
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Entire towns in Mexico flattened as scale of earthquake damage emerges

Thousands of left homeless in towns and communities outside Mexico City as official rescue and relief efforts struggle to cope with the widespread destruction

Hopes that rescuers will find more survivors trapped beneath collapsed buildings in central Mexico were fading on Thursday, as the scale of the devastation wreaked by the country’s deadliest earthquake for a generation started to become clear.
The death toll from Tuesday’s 7.1 magnitude quake rose to 273, including 137 in the capital, and was almost certainly set to rise as rescue workers continue to search the precarious ruins amid the threat of aftershocks, collapsing rubble and gas leaks.
Parts of Mexico City – which is built on a drained lakebed – were devastated in the quake which struck 32 years to the day after the country’s deadliest earthquake killed thousands and laid waste to the capital.
But details of the destruction outside the capital are only now starting to emerge, with reports of entire towns flattened and thousands of people left homeless.
Directly south of Mexico City in Morelos state, the death toll stands at 73. The damage was especially acute in the municipality of Jojutla, where houses were reduced to rubble.

“Jojutla is damaged badly, but there are communities that have suffered the same or worse,” said Óscar Cruz, a spokesman with the local Catholic diocese, who added all 89 Catholic parishes in the state suffered damage. “What’s tragic is that the damage is worst in the poorest pueblos.”

The office of president Enrique Peña Nieto said there were also 73 deaths in Morelos state, 43 in Puebla, 13 in the State of Mexico, six in Guerrero and one in Oaxaca.
In Puebla state, authorities have declared a state of “extraordinary emergency” in 112 municipalities – equivalent to 51% of the region.
At least 1,700 homes have been declared uninhabitable and should be demolished over coming months, according to the state governor. The number could well rise after experts finish more exhaustive inspections.
In Metepec, a quaint colonial town, almost every house and business has suffered structural damage, raising fears among residents that the rebuild could take years.
Calls for urgent help and supplies in towns and communities outside the capital continue to be posted on social networks as official rescue and relief efforts struggle to cope with the widespread destruction.
Hopes that survivors could still be found were boosted by round-the-clock coverage of the navy-led search for a 12-year-old girl believed to be trapped under a collapsed school in the south of Mexico City.
In the hours after the quake struck, 11 children were rescued from the Enrique Rebsámen school, but 21 children and five adults have been found dead so far. For two days, the country was captivated by the story of the girl, identified as Frida Sofía, as TV networks and authorities repeatedly reported that her rescue was imminent.
But as the hours passed without progress, confusion and anger mounted amid contradictory reports from the scene; critics accused the country’s main broadcasters of peddling false hope and neglecting the rest of the quake’s victims.
On Thursday the navy announced that in fact there was no child under the rubble, but the rescue mission would continue as an adult survivor could still be trapped.
There was also growing anger at alleged attempts by the armed forces, which have taken over many of the rescue operations initially led by volunteers, and had started to raze collapsed buildings less than 72 hours after the earthquake – prompting fears that they could destroy buildings where survivors remained trapped.

Rescue services and volunteers search for victims under the debris of the Mexico City school that collapsed in the earthquake. Photograph: Jose Mendez/EPA
In the trendy La Roma neighbourhood, the navy reportedly shut down a rescue operation in an office block on Thursday morning in order to start bulldozing the unstable structure from which 24 survivors had been pulled free.
The sobbing mother of one young woman trapped inside told Televisa “I will not let the navy bulldoze this building when my daughter and other people are still trapped inside and could be alive.”
Reports of clashes between volunteer rescue workers and the armed forces are also surfacing across the capital.
“The army has a history of imposing brutal triage rules for natural disasters which dates back to the 1985 earthquake,” said public policy analyst Rodolfo Soriano Nuñez. “They might get away with this arrogant approach in Oaxaca or Chiapas, but not in Mexico City.”
As cracks started to show in what has been until now lauded as a unified national response, extraordinary tales of survival continue to lift spirits.
Ashley Skoch, 29, was lying in bed watching TV on the sixth floor of a seven-storey apartment block in La Condesa that was toppled by the tremor.
Skoch, from Seattle, arrived in the city a few hours before the earthquake struck to visit a friend who had lived in the building for two years. She jumped up and ducked at the foot of the bed as the walls began to crack and the building “slid down like a layer cake”, she told the Guardian. It almost certainly saved her life.

“When I came to, my head was bleeding, a giant pillar had fallen onto the bed but I wasn’t trapped and could move my body. I was in shock but I put on my pants, grabbed my backpack and laptop and got myself out of the rubble and sat down.”
Nearby construction workers rushed to the scene of the collapsed building and used a crane to lift her to the ground. By this time, Skoch could barely stand, so a man carried her down the road and tried to stop the bleeding until an ambulance arrived and took her to a clinic, from where she was able to contact her friend. Skoch sustained a compound fracture to the spine, but should make a full recovery.
“I feel lucky, but can’t make sense of why I survived when so many others died or are still missing.”
Read more..

Thursday, September 21, 2017

4.0R in Maynmar-INDIA Border

A 4.6R earthquake arrived this afternoon, was expected tomorrow in this area, but it has come early as far as we are concerned.
Our prediction was for(24.3N, 90.2E), not the best in one direction very good in the other. Register to receive our data.


ML 4.0
Date time2017-09-21 16:34:36.0 UTC
Location25.00 N ; 94.60 E
Depth74 km
Distances368 km NW of Mandalay, Myanmar / pop: 1,209,000 / local time: 23:04:36.0 2017-09-21
69 km E of Imphāl, India / pop: 224,000 / local time: 22:04:36.0 2017-09-21
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4.6R in PNG <----Spot on coordinates

A 4.6R event in Papua New Guinea, important to us because we expected this at location
(5.3S, 151.3E), superb accuracy. The difference is (0.13N, 0.68E) degrees, or 76km apart. We can do better, but it is not the priority now.


mb 4.6
Date time2017-09-21 14:10:19.0 UTC
Location5.43 S ; 150.62 E
Depth138 km
Distances584 km NE of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 00:10:19.0 2017-09-22
55 km E of Kimbe, Papua New Guinea / pop: 18,900 / local time: 00:10:19.0 2017-09-22
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22nd September planetary aspects

Tomorrow's aspects in the sky are getting harsher as we can see from the chart above.
Prominent here we have Jupiter Square Mercury , with Mercury Trining  Earth. So Jupiter's perturbation on Mercury is being transfered to Earth. Jupiter and the Earth are quincunx and therefore Jupiter is sending both ways direct and via Mercury hard time on the Earth. Add to that Mars. Well Mars is quincunx to Earth too, so we cant say this is useful or calming influence. Add finally the fact that we are just leaving the nasty square to Saturn, and I expect therefore to see some hard action upon us by the planets involved.

We have seen the earth being hard treated by ouside influences, for us the humans on earth geocentrically we also see some important aspects, including this one, of Jupiter opposite Uranus! However nice Jupiter can be, this time is not nice! Opposite Uranus for us is simply trouble. Trouble which is triggered by our faithful Moon! Yes even the Moon faithful as it is, always near us, this time is triggering Jupiter, to unlease on us. I know I know it reminds us in our lives the other half, faithful as they are, who instead of difusing situations they aggrevate them. Here the Moon does trigger this and possibly a 6-7R is possible.

Be Safe Be Good!

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Schumann Resonances Today

Schumann Resonacestoday look excited, here we see the amplitude of the 4 frequencies. Below we see the actual frequencies where we see a drop in frequencies at the same time as we see the above amplitude change.

It looks like we are not going to have a quiet afternoon. ?

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4.6R in NEPAL <--As Predicted

A 4.6R has just been reported in NEPAL, 47km from Kodari. The magnitude is small and I hope my friends to be safe. Our prediction coordinates sent to those registered were (28.2N, 84.3E) not too bad.


ML 4.6
Date time2017-09-21 07:19:30.0 UTC
Location27.62 N ; 86.25 E
Depth10 km
Distances92 km E of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,443,000 / local time: 13:04:30.0 2017-09-21
47 km SE of Kodāri, Nepal / pop: 1,600 / local time: 13:04:30.0 2017-09-21
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Mexico earthquake: Race to find survivors under collapsed school

Rescuers are racing against the clock to reach survivors trapped under the rubble of a school in Mexico City which collapsed during Tuesday's earthquake.
One of them, a 13-year-old girl, is believed to be sheltering under a table, officials told the BBC.
At least 21 children and five adults died when the primary school collapsed and many others are missing.
The school was one of dozens of buildings toppled by the quake. So far 230 people are known to have died.
President Enrique Peña Nieto has declared three days of mourning for the victims.
As rescue operations continued for a second night, attention was focused on the Enrique Rébsamen primary school, in Mexico City's southern Coapa district.
With anxious parents gathered outside awaiting news of missing children, civil protection volunteer Enrique Gardia announced that a thermal scanner had detected survivors trapped between slabs of concrete.
"They are alive! Alive!" he shouted.
"Someone hit a wall several times in one place, and in another there was a response to light signals with a lamp," he added.
One mother, standing nearby waiting for news of her seven-year-old daughter, told reporters: "No-one can possibly imagine the pain I'm in right now."
On Wednesday, a trapped girl was detected after she moved her hand amid the debris. Details of the child and her condition have not been given but rescuers have passed food and water down to her.
Waiting crowds were frequently hushed as workers listened for sounds of life under the rubble.
More than 500 members of the army and navy together with 200 police officers and volunteers have been working at the site.
Mexico City authorities kept hopes alive on Wednesday, saying 52 people had been rescued so far from collapsed buildings.

Image caption Thousands of volunteers have turned out to support search and rescue operations

Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera said 39 buildings in the capital had crumbled and search teams were scouring nearly all of them for survivors.
President Peña Nieto, visiting the damaged city of Jojutla in Morelos state, appealed for citizens to help rescue operations.
"It is important for people to be part of this group effort," he said.
Most of the victims of the 7.1 magnitude earthquake died in the capital, according to government figures:
Meanwhile, police have stepped up patrols in areas hit by the quake to prevent vandalism and looting.
Schools in the affected states have suspended classes until Monday and all professional football fixtures have been cancelled for the weekend.
Offers of help have come from around the world.
El Salvador and Chile pledged aid while Israel said it would sending a team of rescue specialists.
The White House said President Donald Trump had called Mr Peña Nieto and offered search and rescue teams.
Mexico is no stranger to earthquakes and earlier this month an 8.1 magnitude tremor in the south left at least 90 people dead.
Tuesday's tremor struck shortly after many people had taken part in an earthquake drill on the 32nd anniversary of a major quake that killed thousands in the capital.
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Earthquake leaves 11 dead, including baby, after church collapses during baptism

Mourners hold a wake for 11 family members who were killed inside the Santiago Apostol church during the 7.1 earthquake.

ATZALA, Mexico — A child’s baptism turned into tragedy when the roof of a church collapsed as a powerful earthquake shook central Mexico. Eleven members of a family died, including the 2-month-old girl being christened.
The only survivors were the girl’s father, the priest and the priest’s assistant, the Archdiocese of Puebla said Wednesday. At least four minors were among the dead.
“It was a scene of horror, sadness with most of the people inside the church dying,” priest’s assistant Lorenzo Sanchez told The Associated Press.
Sanchez said those who survived moved to the edges of the church when the swaying started while those who died didn’t have time to do so.
“One of the things they taught us is to stick to the firm walls of our church, which is old and its structure a bit deteriorated,” he said.

Modal Trigger
The Santiago Apostol church which collapsed during the 7.1 earthquake in the town of Atzala in Puebla state, Mexico.AP
When the ground stopped shaking, people called for help using loudspeakers and residents of nearby communities quickly arrived in Atzala with shovels, pickaxes and chains to haul away rubble.
They dug for hours through the crumbling remains of the Santiago Apostol church but found the 11 relatives had died.
Covered in dust and exhausted, the rescuers laid the bodies out on the same street where a party was meant to be held after the baptism. They covered them with canvas to protect them from the rain.
Family members of the dead traveled overnight from other states to attend Wednesday’s wake in Puebla, the state capital where mourners said a final goodbye to their loved ones.
Each coffin had a name attached: Florencio, Fidela, Aurelia, Manuela, Maria de Jesus, Carmen, Samuel, Azucena, Feliciana, Susana and Elideth — the girl who was to be baptized.
Tuesday’s magnitude 7.1 quake was centered in Puebla state, where it killed more than 40 people. Across Mexico it killed more than 200 people.
In Mexico City, rescue efforts continued Wednesday at a primary and secondary school where 25 bodies had been found and a young girl was located alive amid the rubble.
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5.0R in Tonga <---As Predicted

Turning into this morning's events, the first arrival is this 5.0R in Tonga.
We have been expecting it at coordinates (20.2S, 174.2W).  Not bad at all for prediction.


mb 5.0
Date time2017-09-21 00:05:20.9 UTC
Location18.33 S ; 175.34 W
Depth223 km
Distances311 km N of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 13:05:20.9 2017-09-21
148 km W of Neiafu, Tonga / pop: 4,400 / local time: 13:05:20.9 2017-09-21
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INDONESIA: 5.7R <---As Expected

 We expected the event as sent to our subscribers and our prediction was for (5.2S, 117.3E)

A strong 5.7R earthquake came in late yesterday in Java Indonesia as shown in the above map.

Mw 5.7
Date time2017-09-20 23:59:25.0 UTC
Location6.12 S ; 112.97 E
Depth600 km
Distances127 km N of Surabaya, Indonesia / pop: 2,375,000 / local time: 06:59:25.0 2017-09-21
106 km N of Bangkalan, Indonesia / pop: 62,200 / local time: 07:59:25.0 2017-09-21 

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5.6R in PAPUA NEW GUINEA <-----'Exact' Prediction

An earthquake of magnitude 5.6R has been reported in Papua New Guinea at the location shown on the map above. We were expecting this on the day and what is more interesting to us here is the accuracy of our prediction.
Subscribers have received our prediction coordinates and for this event were (5.2S, 147.3E). The accuracy is (0.08 N,  0.56E) in degrees. This is approximately 65km from the epicenter. This by the way is not the best we have achieved. It is a result which approaches our target distance error.


Mw 5.6
Date time2017-09-20 22:13:36.2 UTC
Location5.12 S ; 147.86 E
Depth15 km
Distances484 km N of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 08:13:36.2 2017-09-21
202 km NE of Lae, Papua New Guinea / pop: 76,300 / local time: 08:13:36.2 2017-09-21
164 km N of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea / pop: 1,100 / local time: 08:13:36.2 2017-09-21
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Wednesday, September 20, 2017

6.4R in Vanuatu!

A powerful 6.4R has been reported in Vanuatu!


Mw 6.4
Date time2017-09-20 20:09:49.4 UTC
Location18.73 S ; 169.05 E
Depth187 km
Distances134 km SE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu / pop: 36,000 / local time: 07:09:49.4 2017-09-21
94 km N of Isangel, Vanuatu / pop: 1,500 / local time: 07:09:49.4 2017-09-21
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Early arrival 6.2R in Japan <---As predicted

A 6.2R has been reported this afternoon off Honshu Japan. We were expecting this tomorrow (we have sent this to our subscribers) at (37.4N, 142.2E) a couple degrees off in one direction. Not too bad.


Mw 6.2
Date time2017-09-20 16:37:15.1 UTC
Location37.96 N ; 144.61 E
Depth2 km
Distances330 km E of Sendai-shi, Japan / pop: 1,038,000 / local time: 01:37:15.1 2017-09-21
278 km SE of Kamaishi, Japan / pop: 43,200 / local time: 01:37:15.1 2017-09-21
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5.3R in Taiwan <--spot on

A 5.3R earthquake has been reported in Taiwan this afternoon. We expected this today at coordinates (24.3N, 122.2E). Excellent accuracy for our means. (This is the fifth coordinate prediction for the day).


Mw 5.3
Date time2017-09-20 14:29:55.8 UTC
Location23.32 N ; 121.85 E
Depth20 km
Distances150 km SE of Taichung, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 1,041,000 / local time: 22:29:55.8 2017-09-20
77 km S of Hualian, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 351,000 / local time: 22:29:55.8 2017-09-20
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What to expect in September Equinox 2017.

We are fast approaching the Sequinox time, in two days. September Equinox is on 22nd September 2017.
A quick check we see this is usually a very active period with earthquakes.
Here is a check going back 10 years.

22 Sept. 2017 ----------to be seen
22 Sept, 2016 ----->23rd Sept. 6.4R in Philippines and 6.3R in Japan
23 Sept. 2015----->24th Sept. 6.6R Indonesia AND 6.1R in Solomon Islands
23 Sept. 2014 ------>24th Sept. 6.2R in Argentina
22 Sept. 2013 -----> 21st Sept. 6.1R in Flores Sea, and on 24th Sept. 7.7R in Pakistan
22 Sept. 2012 ------> 22nd Sept.,   5.6R in Tonga
23 Sept. 2011 ------>22nd Sept.    6.5R in Tonga
23 Sept. 2010 ------>22nd Sept. 5.9R in Peru
23 Sept 2009 ------->23rd Sept. 6.0R in Macquirie Isl, and on 24th Sept. 6.4R in Mexico
22 Sept 2008 -------->24th Sept 6.3R in Mexico, and on 22nd Sept. 5.6R in Japan
23 Sept. 2007 -------->23rd Sept. 5.8R in Indonesia

Well it is pretty clear to me what to expect. from now to a day after the equinox. Do you agree?

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