Sunday, September 22, 2019

4.4R in Nepal

A 4.4R in Nepal has been reported this minutes ago. 51km East of Pokhara. Belw is the crossed lines where we predicted the stresses, close enough. Nepal from today for the next a day and a little more is activated, as can be seen from the calendar of the month, see blog.

MagnitudeM 4.4
Date time2019-09-22 16:16:30.0 UTC
Location28.25 N ; 84.49 E
Depth10 km
Distances102 km NW of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,443,000 / local time: 22:01:30.0 2019-09-22
51 km E of Pokhara, Nepal / pop: 200,000 / local time: 22:01:30.0 2019-09-22

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P-Alert Strong Motion Network

 Taiwan is one of the leading countries in the development ofearthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Two types of EEW systems are in operation globally. One type is an onsite EEW system, which determines earthquake information from initial P-waves and predicts the most severe ground shaking of the S-wave trains that arrive immediately afterwards. The other type is a regional EEW system, which is also referred to as a front-detection EEW system. A regional EEW system considers that the speed of signal communication is much faster than the propagation of a seismic wave. Thus, instruments are installed in the earthquake source region and give an early warning to distant cities. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) has been the major agency that has been developing the EEW system in Taiwan since 1993. The National Taiwan University (NTU) also commenced developing the EEW system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) in 2010 with the support of the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). A total of 600 stations were deployed and configured in 2018. A P-Alert system can provide earthquake information within approximately 15 seconds of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide an early warning for cities that are located at a distance greater than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the P-Alert system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning sound once the incoming P-waves are greater than a certain threshold. It can provide a lead time of two to three seconds before the time of peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the regions that are close to the epicenter. A high resolution shaking map was produced within one to two minutes after the earthquake occurred via the P-Alert system. The high shaking regions of the shaking map can indicate the locations of damage and casualties and help to estimate damage. The earthquake rupture direction is potentially identifiable according to the delicate shaking map and the strong motion records of the P-Alert system.

In the past decade, progress has been made towards implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan, Taiwan, and Mexico (e.g. Nakamura 1988; Espinosa-Aranda et al. 1995; Wu et al. 1998; Wu … Teng 2002; Odaka et al. 2003; Horiuchi et al. 2005, 2006a). Two approaches have been adopted: (1) regional warning and (2) Onsite warning. The first approach is the traditional seismological method in which data from a seismic network are used to locate an earthquake, determine the magnitude, and estimate the ground motion in the region involved. In (2), the beginning part of the ground motion (mainly P wave) observed at a site is used to predict the ensuing ground motion (mainly S and surface waves) at the same site. In this case, it is not necessary to locate the event and estimate the magnitude, although in some systems the hypocentre and magnitude are also determined in order to estimate the strength of ground shaking in the region (Nakamura 1988; Odaka et al. 2003).
The regional approach is more comprehensive, but usually takes a longer time and cannot provide early warnings at distances close to the epicentre. The early warning system in Taiwan is a typical example. The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) uses a regional warning system that requires an average of 22 s to determine earthquake parameters with magnitude uncertainties of ±0.25. It provides a warning for areas beyond about 70 km from the epicentre. Taiwan's system has been in operation since 2002 with almost no false alarms and successfully reported many M >; 6 events (Wu … Teng 2002; Wu et al. 2006a). With the advancement of new methodology and more dense seismic networks, regional systems are beginning to be able to provide early warnings to areas close to the epicentre (Tsukada … Ohtake 2002; Kamigaichi 2004; Horiuchi et al. 2005).


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Saturday, September 21, 2019

Albania earthquake: Cars crushed and people run into streets after 5.6 tremor

About 50 people were injured by falling items or debris as Albania was hit by its strongest quake in decades

Homes collapsed, terrified residents ran into the streets and about 50 people were hurt as Albania was rocked by its strongest earthquake in 30 years.

Cars were crushed by falling bricks in the capital Tirana - where two tremors were felt in quick succession - and buildings were badly damaged in the coastal town of Durres, close to the epicentre.
Residents told of scenes of "panic" and "chaos" as the 5.6 magnitude tremor - also felt in Italy and Greece - shook homes, knocked items off shelves, cut power and telephone service, and damaged a football stadium during a match.
Durres resident Franko Gjordeni, whose flat and belongings were damaged, told Mirror Online: "My apartment was about to collapse the second time.
"It was a miracle my building withstood that. These buildings are not made to survive this kind of earthquake."
The moderate tremor hit at about 4pm local time and was centred about 20 miles west of the capital Tirana, but it was felt across the Adriatic Sea in Italy, in neighbouring countries such as Greece and as far east as Bulgaria.
Local reports said about 50 people - including many children - were injured by falling items or debris when the tremor hit at a depth of about six miles.
Dozens of homes reportedly collapsed in Helmes, about six miles from the capital, where bricks fell from a building and crushed cars at the geology department at the University of Tirana.
People posted photos of large cracks that made it appear like blocks of flats had been split in half.
Other photos showed people crying or hugging in the streets after fleeing their homes.
Mr Gjordeni, 21, said "chaos was spreading in the streets" as panicked locals gathered outside fearing strong aftershocks.
He shared photos showing tea cups and glassware that fell off a TV stand and shattered on the floor, and images of dozens of residents gathered in a car park after fleeing their homes.
He added: "When the first one hit people were a bit scared but still stayed at there homes, when the second one hit everyone rushed outside.
"I even saw people tripping on the stairs trying to get outside as soon as possible.
"It's not like this is an every day thing, that's why when the first time the earthquake hit people just disregarded it."
Carolyn Perry, a British lecturer who lives in Durres, said she stood in a doorway as the quake shook her building and knocked out power.
The Londoner, who takes tour groups around archaeological and historic sites in Albania, told Mirror Online: "I knew what it was immediately as we had a weaker quake last year, but this one went on for what seemed like quite a few seconds.
"I went to stand in a doorway to be safe and could hear the glasses clinking in my cabinet.
"The apartment block was really moving - I’m on the fifth floor.
"I could hear people going down the stairs and so as soon as it stopped I grabbed a torch - the building had temporarily lost power - and made my way out.
"Quite a few people were outside on the pavement, but everyone was calm.
"We then had a small aftershock, so people moved further from the tall buildings for a few minutes. Most people are back inside now."
Selman Stermasi Stadium in Tirana was damaged during a football match and large stones tumbled down Kavaje Rock - where Caesar is said to have fought Pompey during a civil war in 48BC - as it suffered a partial collapse.
Twitter users told how they were left shaken following the earthquake.
One woman wrote: "These earthquakes in Albania need to stop.
"We have 3 months in this condition. Lol this one was terrifying."
Another woman added: "I could have done without the 5.8 earthquake this afternoon.
"Residents all out in the street now, waiting to see (or should I say feel) if there are more aftershocks before we go back inside."
A man wrote: "Omfg! Just experienced an earthquake twice in Tirana, Albania!
"The whole ground and walls were shaking.
"It says online that its magnitude was 5.6 and more aftershocks to be expected."
And another man added: "My 7th floor appartment in Tirana was swinging left and right for like 20 seconds.
"Quite some panic around town. Reportedly the biggest earthquake in Albania in 30 years."
In the aftermath, Prime Minister Edi Rama cancelled his trip to the UN General Assembly in New York and was on his way back to Albania to assess the damage.
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A double 5.8R in Albania

A double  5.8R earthquake has just been reported in Albania. The epicenter is hsown in the map above. It is 6km North of Durres. We have no further news yet.

Below we show the stress points for the region above. The Two black dots left and right on Albania, are on exactly latitude of the epicenter so it is like a couple for foces creating vibrations. The longitude can be refined with the lines drawn here created a certain node which as it happens is on the epicenter now exactly.... see below.

Finally this text below is addendum which shows that another fairly strong earthquake came at strength 4.7R following the two originals. This shows it this excitation has now tailing off.

Magnitudemb 5.8
Date time2019-09-21 14:04:25.0 UTC
Location41.37 N ; 19.42 E
Depth10 km
Distances34 km W of Tirana, Albania / pop: 375,000 / local time: 16:04:25.0 2019-09-21
6 km N of Durrës, Albania / pop: 123,000 / local time: 16:04:25.0 2019-09-21

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4.8R in Central Mongolia and analysis

It is not often I see not I concentrate in Mongolia the truth is, but today looking at the events Mongolia has had a 4.8R and it is the highest magnitude of this day so far. So this got my attention.
The epicenter as you can see from the above map it is 59 km  NE of Mandalgovi. No knewsif some people felt of it. However i run my software to see todays stress points in the region of Mongolia.
The map below we see the current stress points in black dots. The one near the earthquake is shown in the circle below. It seems it is in latitude off by a single degree approx, spot on the other coordinate.
We tried further to refine this so running the fibonacci tools below ontop of the stress points and we have see now the encircled cross is exactly spot on the epicenter advertised.  Pleased that our tools are doing very well. Unfortunately we do not have Mongolia as region on its own to have a calendar chart, but the stress map is good.

Magnitudemb 4.8
Date time2019-09-21 02:41:09.7 UTC
Location46.14 N ; 106.81 E
Depth10 km
Distances197 km S of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia / pop: 845,000 / local time: 10:41:09.7 2019-09-21
59 km NE of Mandalgovĭ, Mongolia / pop: 15,500 / local time: 10:41:09.7 2019-09-21

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4.0R in Nepal

A 4.0R earthquake has been reported in Nepal this morning, at an epicenter55km North of Bharatpur.

MagnitudeM 4.0
Date time2019-09-21 00:34:30.0 UTC
Location28.15 N ; 84.61 E
Depth10 km
Distances86 km NW of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,443,000 / local time: 06:19:30.0 2019-09-21
64 km E of Pokhara, Nepal / pop: 200,000 / local time: 06:19:30.0 2019-09-21
55 km N of Bharatpur, Nepal / pop: 108,000 / local time: 06:19:30.0 2019-09-21

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Friday, September 20, 2019

5.4R in Vanuatu

This just reported 5.5R in Vanuatu, as shown in the map above, when we run the stress points of the region we show them in the map below.
We can see close one degree away is shown in the map below.

Magnitudemb 5.4
Date time2019-09-20 18:20:07.4 UTC
Location17.40 S ; 167.01 E
Depth10 km
Distances144 km W of Port-Vila, Vanuatu / pop: 36,000 / local time: 05:20:07.4 2019-09-21
543 km N of Nouméa, New Caledonia / pop: 93,100 / local time: 05:20:07.4 2019-09-21
1166 km SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands / pop: 56,300 / local time: 05:20:07.4 2019-09-21

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Four earthquakes in succession have emerged this morning in TONGA! A;; ranging fom5.0R to 5.4R as can be seen in the list above.
 What is amazing is also the the expectation of some earthquake in Tonga Region as can be seen by the calendar below for todate.

Looking at the following chart

What is also important that we explain  the 4 events by looking at the decliation of the planets. Here we have Jupiter square Neptune retro, but also we have Node, Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto all made a >5R earthquake. top of that Neptune Heliocentrically is opposite to Mars, via Sun....Amazing
Be Safe Be Good.

Magnitudemb 5.4
Date time2019-09-20 05:28:25.4 UTC
Location18.27 S ; 172.10 W
Depth10 km
Distances454 km NE of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 18:28:25.4 2019-09-20
203 km E of Neiafu, Tonga / pop: 4,400 / local time: 18:28:25.4 2019-09-20
You can read about our methodology here.


Our new ANDROID APP is now on Google Play

You can download it free from
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