The GOES Magnetometer is spiraling so I expect by the day end we will see a nice one.
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
Early Morning Precursors
The GOES Magnetometer is spiraling so I expect by the day end we will see a nice one.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
FDL Method: 21st September 2018
- Iran [27N, 28N, 31N, 32N, 57E, 58E, 61E, 62E] expecting strong.
- Chile [36S, 73W]
- Ecuador [2S, 73W, 80.7W]
- Greece
- FIJI [16S, 178E, 177E, 178W]
- Indonesia [8S,117E,118E]
- Japan [36N, 34N, 113E, 140E, 137E, 135E]
- NEPAL [27N, 28N, 87E] small expected
- Peru [16S, 73W]
- Taiwan [24N, 121E]
- Philippines [16N, 121E]
- California [36N, 121W],[ 38N, 42N, 124W]
- Pakistan/Afghanistan
Earthquake Solomon Islands: 5.8 Quake Hits Near Gizo
The earthquake hit at a depth of about six miles, the USGS said. Magnitude 5 and 6 earthquakes are described on the Richter scale as moderate quakes with strong, sudden movements.
It was not immediately clear whether there was significant damage or injuries resulting from the earthquake, though the USGS estimated there would be a low likelihood of casualties or damage
TEC Rate today at 14:45UT
The following TEC Rate map is a little later note the time and this in my opinion reflects on FIJI. So This is another place of activity.
The next one corresponds to Solomon Islands.
FDL Method: 20th September 2018
- Greece [38N, 21E]
- Br. Columbia [51N, 126E]
- Italy [42N, 15E]
- JAPAN [ 36N, 38N, 141E]
- Mexico [16.6N, 99.7W]
- New Zealand [42S, 175E],[38S, 177E]
- Peru [17S, 72W]
- Philippines [17N, 122E]
- Solomon Islands [8.5S, 157.5E]
- Taiwan,[25N, 122E]
- Vanuatu,[17S, 168E]
- Guatemala, [17N, 92W]
- Fiji [17S, 177E]
- Chile, [32.2S, 72W]
- Iran, [36N, 51E]
- Turkey, [38N, 27E]
FDL Method: 19th September 2018
- Alaska [59N, 153W]
- Greece [34N, 35N, 25E,26E] also [40N, 25E,26E]
- Papua New Guinea, [4S, 145E, 149E, 153E, 154E]
- Taiwan [25N, 121E]
- NEPAL [27.9N,85E] If it comes (unlikely)
- California [34N, 40N, 116E, 120E, 124E]
- Iran [26N, 59E] ,[ 30N, 34N, 55E, 59E]
- Australia [34S, 115.3E]
- Italy [40N, 15E] small but peaks on 20th
- JAPAN [ 35N, 140E]
- New Zealand [40S, 175E] peaks tomorrow 20th
- Afghanistan [30N, 34N, 63E, 64E],
- Pakistan[ 26N, 63E, 64E]
- Peru [17S, 72W] peaks on 20th Sept.
- Philippines [8S, 124E]
- Solomon Islands [9S, 159.5E]
Monday, September 17, 2018
FDL Method: 18th September 2018
- Alaska
- Bosphorus
- Br. Columbia
- Chile
- Ecuador
- Greece
- Kamchatka
- Papua New Guinea
- Taiwan
Super Typhoon "Mangkhut" leaves at least 108 people dead and more than 500 000 affected in Philippines
Mangkhut is the 15th and strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines this year and one of the strongest on record.t left key agricultural areas on Luzon underwater, triggered dozens of landslides and left much of the region without communications and electricity, making damage assessment extremely difficult.Initial official estimates mention a total of 250 730 tonnes of paddy rice lost which exceeded a worst-case forecast by 60%.
Super Typhoon "Mangkhut," known in the Philippines as Ompong, made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan at 17:40 UTC on September 14 (01:40 PHT, September 15), 2018, with maximum sustained winds near 268 km/h (167 mph), making it a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The typhoon left a trail of destruction across Luzon and at least 108 people dead or missing.
Mangkhut is the 15th and strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines this year and one of the strongest on record.
It left key agricultural areas on Luzon underwater, triggered dozens of landslides and left much of the region without communications and electricity, making damage assessment extremely difficult.
Initial official estimates mention a total of 250 730 tonnes of paddy rice lost which exceeded a worst-case forecast by 60%.
As a result, the prices of vegetables in the region, Philippines bread and basket, have almost doubled.
---Strawberry and vegetable farms in La Trinidad, Benguet are seen damaged a day after the onslaught of typhoon Mangkhut/Ompong on Sunday. Ompong, the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year, wrought havoc to the livelihood of thousands in Northern Luzon.
According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Mangkhut left a total of 591 769 people affected from the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Metro Manila.The NDRRMC said a total of 229 areas were flooded in the Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, and Calabarzon as of Sunday. Of this, floods in 35 areas already subsided.
About 79 homes were also totally wrecked while 372 were partially damaged in the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and CAR.
The official death toll has reached 65 early Monday, September 17. However, emergency workers in CAR later recovered 43 bodies of illegal gold miners who were taking shelter in a bunkhouse when they were hit by a massive landslide. This rose the death toll to 108 and the number is still expected to rise as some estimates suggest there were more than 70 miners in the area. Some estimated there were more than 100 miners at the site.
The government declared seven provinces and cities under a state of calamity.
Mangkhut has since moved on to southern China where officials evacuated more than 2.4 million people from Guangdong province. The typhoon caused extensive damage and major flooding, leaving at least 4 people dead and more than 100 injured.
Schumann Resonances today 17th September 2018
Schumann Resonances are spiking again. Are we ready? in a few hours we should get one or two 5.5R or so. Time will tell.
Be Safe Be Good.
Sunday, September 16, 2018
What is it like to be in a Typhoon? (Video clip)
Super Typhoon Mangkhut Hit Hong Kong. No words are needed!
FDL Method: 17th September 2018
- China
- California
- Ecuador
- Fiji
- Indonesia
- Japan
- Peru
- Iran
- France
Kilometers-long Earth cracks dry up rivers, wells, and deplete groundwater reserves in Kerala, India
A series of issues including soaring mercury level, unprecedented dip in water level of rivers, sudden drying-up of wells, depletion of groundwater reserves and mass perishing of earthworms have caused widespread concern in various parts of Kerala after the devastating deluge last month.
The flood-battered Wayanand district, known for its rich biodiversity, recently experienced an unprecedented mass die-off of earthworms, causing concern among farmers who attributed it to the rapid drying up of earth and change in soil structure.
Many rivers including Periyar, Bharathapuzha, Pampa and Kabani, which were overflowing during the deadly rains, are now drying up and their water level has decreased abnormally. Besides, wells are also drying up and groundwater reserves diminish at an alarmign rate in many districts.
The dramatic monsoon floods have altered the topography of the land in many places, probably causing kilometres-long cracks especially in high range areas of Idukki and Wayanad.
After floods, drought conditions have been predicted by experts in many districts of the southern state.
http://strangesounds.org/2018/09/kilometers-long-earth-cracks-swallow-up-water-in-rivers-wells-and-groundwater-reserves-in-kerala-india.html
Magnitude 5.6 earthquake hits Walpole, in WA’s Great Southern
A MAGNITUDE 5.6 earthquake has been recorded in Walpole, in WA’s Great Southern.
Tremors were felt as far north as Perth.
Residents in Walpole felt their buildings rumble but authorities are saying no damage has been reported yet.
Geoscience Australia said the earthquake had a preliminary magnitude of 5.6 and struck at an extremely shallow depth, just below the surface. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) puts the magnitude slightly lower, at 5.3.
Shaking was felt across the region, including in places such as Albany, Denmark, Bunbury, Mandurah, Russelton, Rockingham, and Perth. There were no immediate reports of serious damage.
“I ran outside. Definitely unsettling with the shaking and everything rattling,” one person in Albany told EMSC. A resident in Bunbury described the feeling as “pulsing,” rather than swaying.
There is no threat of a tsunami, according to the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre.
Sunday’s earthquake was one of the strongest to hit mainland Australia in recent years. Australia was rattled by several earthquakes in 2016, including a 6.0 that struck the central region but caused no serious damage.
Geoscience Australia said the earthquake had a preliminary magnitude of 5.6 and struck at an extremely shallow depth, just below the surface. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) puts the magnitude slightly lower, at 5.3.
Shaking was felt across the region, including in places such as Albany, Denmark, Bunbury, Mandurah, Russelton, Rockingham, and Perth. There were no immediate reports of serious damage.
“I ran outside. Definitely unsettling with the shaking and everything rattling,” one person in Albany told EMSC. A resident in Bunbury described the feeling as “pulsing,” rather than swaying.
There is no threat of a tsunami, according to the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre.
Sunday’s earthquake was one of the strongest to hit mainland Australia in recent years. Australia was rattled by several earthquakes in 2016, including a 6.0 that struck the central region but caused no serious damage.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/magnitude-56-earthquake-hits-walpole-in-was-great-southern-ng-b88962187z
https://bnonews.com/site/index.php/2018/09/earthquake-hits-western-australia-felt-in-perth-and-albany/
https://bnonews.com/site/index.php/2018/09/earthquake-hits-western-australia-felt-in-perth-and-albany/
Morning Review: 16th September 2018
Be Safe Be Good!
Saturday, September 15, 2018
A storm surge four storeys high wind gusts 330 kmh (an incredible 205mh) Super Typhoon Mangkhut slams into the northern Philippines
Super Typhoon Mangkhut slammed into the northern Philippines on Saturday (Sept 15) with violent winds and torrential rains, as authorities warned millions in its path of potentially heavy destruction.
The massive storm, which forecasters have called the strongest typhoon this year, blew down trees, tore off roofs and knocked out power when it made landfall on the island of Luzon in the pre-dawn darkness.
As it barrelled west toward China across the disaster-prone archipelago, the storm's gusts strengthened up to 330 kilometres per hour but its sustained winds had weakened to 185kmh.
"As much as possible, stay indoors," Chris Perez, a forecaster for the state weather service, warned the roughly four million people in the path of the storm after it landed at 1.40am.
An average of 20 typhoons and storms lash the Philippines each year, killing hundreds of people. Thousands of people fled their homes in high-risk areas ahead of the storm's arrival because of major flooding and landslide risks.
Authorities hiked the storm alert on Friday to its second-highest level in northern Luzon provinces and mobilised rescue teams.
The elevated warning level carried risks of "very heavy" damage to communities hit by the typhoon and a storm surge that was forecast to hit six meters in some areas, the weather service said. Residents had started lashing down their roofs and gathering supplies days before the arrival of the storm.
"Among all the typhoons this year, this one ( Mangkhut) is the strongest," Japan Meteorological Agency forecaster Hiroshi Ishihara told AFP on Friday.
"This is a violent typhoon.
It has the strongest sustained wind (among the typhoons of this year)."
After blasting the Philippines, Mangkhut is predicted to hurtle towards China's heavily populated southern coast this weekend.
"They (authorities) said this typhoon is twice as strong as the last typhoon, that's why we are terrified," Myrna Parallag, 53, told AFP after fleeing her home in the northern Philippines.
"We learned our lesson last time. The water reached our roof," she said, referring to when her family rode out a typhoon at home in 2016.
The country's deadliest on record is Super Typhoon Haiyan, which left more than 7,350 people dead or missing across the central Philippines in November 2013.
Poor communities reliant on fishing are some of the most vulnerable to fierce typhoon winds and the storm surges that pound the coast.
"The rains will be strong and the winds are no joke... We may have a storm surge that could reach four storeys high," Michael Conag, a spokesman for local civil defence authorities, told AFP.
The storm is not forecast to directly hit Hong Kong, but forecasters say the city will be lashed by Mangkhut's wind and rain.
The Hong Kong Observatory warned that the massive typhoon will pose a "severe threat" to China's southern coast before moving on to northern Vietnam.
FDL Method: 16th September 2018
- Rhodes
- California
- Ecuador
- Fiji
- Indonesia
- Mexico
- Philippines
- Vanuatu
Friday, September 14, 2018
Some Economics of Hurricanes
As Hurricane Florence slams into the southeastern United States, here are a few posts from the past on the economics of hurricanes and other natural disasters.
"Economics and Natural Disasters" (November 2, 2012)
This blog was written as Hurricane Sandy hit the US in 2012. Among a number of other articles, in this blog I mention how David Stromberg laid out the economic arguments about natural disasters in "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid," appearing in the Summer 2007 issue of my own Journal of Economic Perspectives. Stromberg described how the basic framework for economic analysis of natural disasters emerged from correspondence between Voltaire and Rousseau in 1755 (footnotes and citations omitted):
"[I]n 1755 an earthquake devastated Lisbon, which was then Europe’s fourth-largest city. At the first quake, fissures five meters wide appeared in the city center. The waves of the subsequent tsunami engulfed the harbor and downtown. Fires raged for days in areas unaffected by the tsunami. An estimated 60,000 people were killed, out of a Lisbon population of 275,000. In a letter to Voltaire dated August 18, 1756, Jean-Jacques Rousseau notes that while the earthquake was an act of nature, previous acts of men, like housing construction and urban residence patterns, set the stage for the high death toll. Rousseau wrote: “Without departing from your subject of Lisbon, admit, for example, that nature did not construct twenty thousand houses of six to seven stories there, and that if the inhabitants of this great city had been more equally spread out and more lightly lodged, the damage would have been much less and perhaps of no account.”
"Following Rousseau’s line of thought, disaster risk analysts distinguish three factors contributing to a disaster: the triggering natural hazard event (such as the earthquake striking in the Atlantic Ocean outside Portugal); the population exposed to the event (such as the 275,000 citizens of Lisbon); and the vulnerability of that population (higher for the people in seven-story buildings)."
"Natural Disasters: Insurance Costs vs. Deaths" (April 16, 2015)
This blog post looked at the lists of the most destructive natural disasters that are published regularly by Swiss Re. I discussed why it is that the disasters with the greatest losses to property are often different than the disasters with the greatest loss of life. I wrote:
[T]he effects of a given natural disaster on people and property will depend to a substantial extent on what happens before and after the event. Are most of the people living in structures that comply with an appropriate building code? Have civil engineers thought about issues like flood protection? Is there an early warning system so that people have as much advance warning of the disaster as possible? How resilient is the infrastucture for electricity, communications, and transportation in the face of the disaster? Was there an advance plan before the disaster on how support services would be mobilized?
In countries with high levels of per capita income, many of these investments are already in place, and so natural disasters have the highest costs in terms of property, but relatively lower costs in terms of life. In countries with low levels of per capita income, these investments in health and safety are often not in place, and much of the property that is in place is uninsured. Thus, a 7.0 earthquake hits Haiti in 2010, and 225,000 die. A 9.0 earthquake/tsunami combination hits Japan in 2011--and remember, earthquakes are measured on a base-10 exponential scale, so a 9.0 earthquake has 100 times the shaking power of a 7.0 quake--and less than one-tenth as many people die as in Haiti.
For example, in the the most recent version, see pp. 48-49 in this 2018 report, the most costly natural disaster from 1970-2017 in terms of insured losses was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with $82 billion in losses. But biggest natural disaster over that time in terms of lives lost was 300,000 dead from storms and flooding in Bangladesh in 1970. The 1,836 lives lost in Katrina don't make the top-40 list of most lives lost in a natural disaster from 1970-2017.
"The New Orleans Economy Since Katrina" (October 25, 2013)
In describing the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, I wrote:
"According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, in the July 2005 the population of the New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner metropolitan area was area at a shade over 1.3 million, essentially unchanged since 2000. By the July 2006 count, dropped to 978,000. The population has rebuilt slowly since then, up to nearly 1.2 million by July 2009, but remains below the pre-storm level. What about the economy of New Orleans? As I'll try to explain, it's a story with twists and turns, but perhaps without any clear policy implication."
One of the sources I mentioned in the blog quotes Michael Hecht, president of the largest economic development agency in the region, to this effect: “New Orleans was like a morbidly obese person who finally had a heart attack that was strong enough to scare them, but not strong enough to kill them ... Katrina laid bare that this was a city and a region that had been in slow, decadent decline, probably since the ’60s ...”
I also mention an insight about natural disasters and housing markets from Jacob Vigdor in "The Economic Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina,"which appeared in the Fall 2008 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. I wrote:
When a city is declining, low-quality housing can become quite inexpensive. The result is that those with low incomes find it hard to leave the city, because although their prospects for earning income aren't good, their cost of housing is low, and moving to some other area with a higher cost of housing seems like a high-risk choice. But Hurricane Katrina blasted the New Orleans housing stock. Vigdor wrote: `The 2000 Census counted just over 215,000 housing units in the city of New Orleans. By 2006, the estimated number of units had declined to 106,000, of which more than 32,000 were vacant. Although these vacant units appeared intact from the exterior, most of them undoubtedly required significant interior rehabilitation prior to occupation. Hurricane Katrina thus rendered two-thirds of the city’s housing stock uninhabitable, at least in the short term.' To be sure, a substantial amount of this housing stock was eventually refurbished. But some of the cycle of low-income people living in low-cost housing was diminished, partly because a number of those low-income people ended up relocated in other cities, and partly because much of the refurbished housing was no longer as inexpensive as it had previously been.
A version of this article first appeared on Conversable Economist.
https://www.bbntimes.com/en/global-economy/some-economics-of-hurricanes
6.0R in Papua INDONESIA
A powerful 6.0R has been reported in Papua Indonesia, 63km deep epicenter, 197km from Abepura.
| Magnitude | mb 6.0 |
| Region | PAPUA, INDONESIA |
| Date time | 2018-09-14 15:50:17.8 UTC |
| Location | 2.84 S ; 138.82 E |
| Depth | 63 km |
| Distances | 1178 km NW of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 01:50:17.8 2018-09-15
212 km W of Jayapura, Indonesia / pop: 135,000 / local time: 00:50:17.8 2018-09-15 197 km W of Abepura, Indonesia / pop: 62,300 / local time: 00:50:17.8 2018-09-15 |
INDIA: OLR Maps
Papua New Guinea: OLR
Anomalous OLR is another precursor often used around, as it is easily available. It has to do with the outgoing long wave radiation emitted from the surface of the earth. Of course they use satellites for mapping it. Here we show you the OLR anomalies in the region of Papua New Guinea over the last 10 days or so. From that some research shows that one can approximately predict when an event can occur. We can see, when the lines are dense and compressed there we have increased potential for an event some days later.
Solomon Islands: OLR
KAMCHATKA OLR
