Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Earthquake of 6.2 magnitude strikes in eastern Indonesia

JAKARTA: An earthquake of 6.2 magnitude (downgraded to 5.5R) struck in eastern Indonesia on Monday, the European monitoring agency said, but there were no immediate report of any casualties or damage.

The epicentre was 133 km northwest of the city of Kupang on Timor island, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre said.
 The map above is our location stress estimate by using our methods, not far from the epicenter.

MagnitudeMw 5.5
RegionFLORES REGION, INDONESIA
Date time2019-06-17 05:43:31.0 UTC
Location8.86 S ; 123.01 E
Depth109 km
Distances284 km W of Dili, Timor-Leste / pop: 150,000 / local time: 14:43:31.0 2019-06-17
158 km NW of Kupang, Indonesia / pop: 283,000 / local time: 13:43:31.0 2019-06-17
92 km E of Maumere, Indonesia / pop: 47,600 / local time: 13:43:31.0 2019-06-17
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Earthquake in China kills at least 12 people and leaves scores injured

Beijing -- Rescue efforts were underway on Tuesday after a pair of earthquakes in southwestern China left at least 12 people dead and 134 others injured. The Yibin city press office said on its social media account that 73 houses had collapsed.
The Chinese Ministry of Emergency Management said hundreds of firefighters arrived early Tuesday and had rescued eight trapped people.
The first quake struck on Monday evening with a magnitude of 5.9, and was followed by a second temblor of 5.2 magnitude, both at a depth of about six miles, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Aftershocks continued into Tuesday morning.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/earthquake-china-dead-injured-rescue-sichuan-province-today-latest-updates-2019-06-18/

What about our prediction here in earthquakepredict.com? Well we have first published the Chinese calendar for the month of June, shown below, which clearly show the spike on 17th June, as it happens. We also metioned the danger of this period in our predictive post here.

 Finally, LOCATION: Below we see the stress location very near the epicenter, for China in this region, and for the date of 17th June. Another very good location estimate.


Be Safe Be Good.


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There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties from the tremor, which hit 85km off northwestern Honshu island.


Japan has issued a tsunami warning after a magnitude 6.8 earthquake hit off its northwestern coast.
There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties from the strong quake on Tuesday, which struck 85 kilometres to the west of Honshu island.
The meteorological agency issued a tsunami alert for the coasts of Ishikawa, Niigata and Yamagata prefectures and warned of a wave of one metre.

The seismic centre of the quake that hit the region at 10:22pm (13:22 GMT) was off the coast of Yamagata prefecture at a depth of about 10km, the agency said.
Japan is on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire where numerous devastating earthquakes have been recorded as well as volcanic eruptions.
On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck under the Pacific Ocean resulting in a tsunami that caused widespread damage and claimed thousands of lives.
That earthquake also sent three reactors into meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant, causing Japan's worst post-World War II disaster and the most serious nuclear accident since Chernobyl in 1986.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/magnitude-68-earthquake-strikes-coast-japan-190618134012035.html



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A series of earthquakes in Fiji and Japan confirm our predictions

A series of powerful earthquakes have arrived since our last post, mostly confirming our predictions. Today we saw Japan and Fiji, we saw China and Iran, etc etc ...Good predictions, as posted here.  Be Safe Be Good!


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Sunday, June 16, 2019

Two powerful earthquakes in Tonga and Kermadec


Late last night we saw reports of two powerful earthquakes, one in Tonga of magnitude 6.1R and another of magnitude 7.2R in Kermadec Islands, of New Zealand.
This is just hours before our warning post of 12th June, about this event coming. We have no reports of any dmagesand we hope not. Be Safe be Good.

PS Below is the stress points and fibo intercects spot on the epicenter


Other posts
A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck an arc of islands off New Zealand on Sunday, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said it may cause only minor sea level changes in some coastal areas.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake hit a spot about 873 kilometres northeast of Ngunguru, New Zealand, a town of about 1,400 people. It occurred at a depth of 10 kilometres.
The area the quake struck is called the Kermadec Islands, about 800 kilometres northeast of New Zealand’s North Island.
New Zealand’s Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management cleared New Zealand of a tsunami threat moments after issuing a beach warning.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5395704/new-zealand-earthquake-islands/


he Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management has cleared New Zealand of a tsunami threat minutes after issuing a beach warning following the magnitude 7.0 earthquake near the Kermadec Islands.
The earthquake occurred in the Kermadec Islands region at 10.55am.
A Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management spokesman said there may be some strong currents but there was nothing to indicate a threat to life and safety in New Zealand.
Tidal gauges at Raoul Island, which lay between the epicentre and New Zealand, had shown good news, he said.
Raoul Island is home to a Department of Conservation (DOC) station.
A DOC spokeswoman confirmed all seven staff based on Raoul Island were safe and accounted for.
"There are no other contractors or visitors on the island," she said.
At this stage, they were unsure of any damage on the island and staff would be assessing this, she said.
The Kermadec Islands Nature Reserve and Marine Reserve is the most remote area managed by DOC and can only be visited with a special permit.The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, which made the assessment alongside GNS Science, said earlier that if a tsunami had been generated in this location it was not likely to arrive in New Zealand for at least two hours.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12240884

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Friday, June 14, 2019

6.4R in CHILE


A strong earthquake of magnitude 6.4R was reported this morning offshore Coquimbo, Chile. The epicenter was 55km West of Coquimbo at the location shown on the map. No news of damages.

MagnitudeMw 6.4
RegionOFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
Date time2019-06-14 00:19:10.3 UTC
Location30.04 S ; 71.90 W
Depth2 km
Distances397 km N of Santiago, Chile / pop: 4,838,000 / local time: 20:19:10.3 2019-06-13
64 km W of La Serena, Chile / pop: 155,000 / local time: 20:19:10.3 2019-06-13
55 km W of Coquimbo, Chile / pop: 162,000 / local time: 20:19:10.3 2019-06-13

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Thursday, June 13, 2019

5.2R in Tonga <--Spot on


Expected from yesterday as can be seen in the TONGA Calendar below, but within our expectation window this 5.2R earthquake has come today in the Tonga Region. See the calendar below. Se also our SPOT ON spot coordinate of expected earthquake with accuracy location of 30km! (21S, 174W) Spot on!





Magnitudemb 5.2
RegionTONGA
Date time2019-06-13 07:33:59.5 UTC
Location21.00 S ; 174.14 W
Depth10 km
Distances111 km E of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 20:33:59.5 2019-06-13
92 km NE of ‘Ohonua, Tonga / pop: 1,300 / local time: 20:33:59.5 2019-06-13


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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

16th and 19th June events



The first significant alignment approaching is on 16th June, where the above figure shows Jupiter Moon Earth and  Sun coming up to an alignment.


The second date is  on June 19th where we see a worth noting alignment in the skies. We have Mars Mercury Earth and Moon aligned as shown in the above Figure. On both dates we can have some powerful earthquakes on earth. Thos alignments are independently confirmed by examing the Global Calendar we produce. We reproduce it here below.
The calendar shows that from 17th June to 20th June we have strong possibilities for powerful events. So it agrees and independently reinforces the alignments referred above. To see which countries are prone, we need to see every calendar individually, and check on those periods which ones have strong peaks.
One of the countries which may be affected is Japan on 19th June, Mexico on 17th June, 16th to 18th Taiwan is vulnerable. 19th-20th we have Fiji and Indonesia. On 16th June we have Papua New Guinea and Iran. On 20th we have California. On 16th we see Solomon Islands as vulnerable. Other countries may be vulnerable and one has to exhaustively study all the calendars.
Be Safe be Good


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5.2R in Pakistan <--Spot on


A 5.2R strong earthquake was reported this morning in Pakistan. This was expected as can be seen by the monthly calendar below with peak on 12th. Also we show below a map with the expected stresses in the region and the encircled stress point is exactly within less than a degree the epicenter. Great call.




Magnitudemb 5.2
RegionPAKISTAN
Date time2019-06-12 03:10:28.5 UTC
Location34.66 N ; 72.99 E
Depth46 km
Distances104 km N of Islamabad, Pakistan / pop: 602,000 / local time: 08:10:28.5 2019-06-12
41 km NW of Mānsehra, Pakistan / pop: 66,500 / local time: 08:10:28.5 2019-06-12
32 km NW of Baffa, Pakistan / pop: 14,100 / local time: 08:10:28.5 2019-06-12

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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

This Is What Will Happen To Our Sun After It Dies

A solar flare from our Sun, which ejects matter out away from our parent star and into the Solar System, is dwarfed in terms of 'mass loss' by nuclear fusion, which has reduced the Sun's mass by a total of 0.03% of its starting value: a loss equivalent to the mass of Saturn. E=mc^2, when you think about it, showcases how energetic this is, as the mass of Saturn multiplied by the speed of light (a large constant) squared leads to a tremendous amount of energy produced. Our Sun has about another 5-7 billion years of fusing hydrogen into helium, but there's much more to come after that.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory / GSFC
One of the most profound rules in all the Universe is that nothing lasts forever. With gravitational, electromagnetic and nuclear forces all acting on matter, practically everything we observe to exist today will face changes in the future. Even the stars, the most enormous collections that transform nuclear fuel in the cosmos, will someday all burn out, including our Sun.
But this does not mean that stellar death — when stars run out of nuclear fuel — is actually the end for a star like our Sun. Quite to the contrary, there are a number of fascinating things in store for all stars once they've died that first, most obvious death. Although it's true that our Sun's fuel is finite and we fully expect it to undergo a "typical" stellar death, this death is not the end. Not for our Sun, and not for any Sun-like stars. Here's what comes next.
The (modern) Morgan–Keenan spectral classification system, with the temperature range of each star class shown above it, in kelvin. Our Sun is a G-class star, producing light with an effective temperature of around 5800 K, which humans are well-adapted to during the day. The most massive stars are brighter, hotter and bluer, but you only need about 8% the mass of the Sun to begin fusing hydrogen into helium at all, which is something that M-class red dwarfs can do just as well, so long as they achieve critical core temperatures above about 4 million K.
The (modern) Morgan–Keenan spectral classification system, with the temperature range of each star class shown above it, in kelvin. Our Sun is a G-class star, producing light with an effective temperature of around 5800 K, which humans are well-adapted to during the day. The most massive stars are brighter, hotter and bluer, but you only need about 8% the mass of the Sun to begin fusing hydrogen into helium at all, which is something that M-class red dwarfs can do just as well, so long as they achieve critical core temperatures above about 4 million K.
Wikimedia Commons user LucasVB, additions by E. Siegel

In order to be considered a true star, and not a failed star (like a brown dwarf) or some corpse (like a white dwarf or neutron star), you have to be capable of fusing hydrogen into helium. When a cloud of gas collapses to potentially form a new star, it has a lot of gravitational potential energy in its diffuse state, which gets converted into kinetic (thermal) energy when it collapses. This collapse heats up the matter, and if it gets hot and dense enough, nuclear fusion will begin.
After many generations of studying stars, including where they do and don't form, we now know they have to reach an internal temperature of about 4 million K to begin fusing hydrogen into helium, and that requires at least ~8% the mass of our Sun, or about 70 times the mass of Jupiter. Being at least that massive is the minimum requirement for becoming a star at all.Once that mass/temperature threshold is crossed, the star begins fusing hydrogen into helium, and will encounter one of three different fates. These fates are determines solely by the star's mass, which in turn determines the maximum temperature that will be reached in the core. All stars begin fusing hydrogen into helium, but what comes next is temperature-dependent. In particular:
  • If your star is too low in mass, it will fuse hydrogen into helium only, and will never get hot enough to fuse helium into carbon. A purely helium composition is the fate of all M-class (red dwarf) stars, below about 40% the Sun's mass. This describes the majority of stars in the Universe (by number).
  • If your star is like the Sun, it will contract down to higher temperatures when the core runs out of hydrogen, beginning helium fusion (into carbon) when the star swells into a red giant. It will end composed of carbon and oxygen, with the lighter (outer) hydrogen and helium layers blown off. This occurs for all stars between about 40% and 800% the Sun's mass.
  • If your star is more than 8 times the mass of the Sun, it will not only fuse hydrogen into helium and helium into carbon, but will initiate carbon fusion later on, leading to oxygen fusion, silicon fusion, and eventually, a spectacular death by supernova.
When the most massive stars die, their outer layers, enriched with heavy elements from the result of nuclear fusion and neutron capture, are blown off into the interstellar medium, where they can help future generations of starsby providing them with the raw ingredients for rocky planets and, potentially, life. Our Sun would need to be about eight times as massive to have a shot at this fate, which is well out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
When the most massive stars die, their outer layers, enriched with heavy elements from the result of nuclear fusion and neutron capture, are blown off into the interstellar medium, where they can help future generations of starsby providing them with the raw ingredients for rocky planets and, potentially, life. Our Sun would need to be about eight times as massive to have a shot at this fate, which is well out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
NASA, ESA, J. Hester, A. Loll (ASU)
These are the most conventional fates of stars, and by far the three most common. The stars that are massive enough to go supernova are rare: only about 0.1-0.2% of all stars are this massive, and they will leave behind either neutron star or black hole remnants.
The stars that are lowest in mass are the most common star in the Universe, making up somewhere between 75-80% of all stars, and are also the longest-lived. With lifetimes that range from perhaps 150 billion to over 100 trillion years, not a single one has run out of fuel in our 13.8 billion year old Universe. When they do, they will form white dwarf stars made entirely out of helium.
But Sun-like stars, which comprise about a quarter of all stars, experience a fascinating death cycle when they run out of helium in their core. They transform into a planetary nebula/white dwarf duo in a spectacular, but slow, death process.
The planetary nebula NGC 6369's blue-green ring marks the location where energetic ultraviolet light has stripped electrons from oxygen atoms in the gas. Our Sun, being a single star that rotates on the slow end of stars, is very likely going to wind up looking akin to this nebula after perhaps another 7 billion years.
The planetary nebula NGC 6369's blue-green ring marks the location where energetic ultraviolet light has stripped electrons from oxygen atoms in the gas. Our Sun, being a single star that rotates on the slow end of stars, is very likely going to wind up looking akin to this nebula after perhaps another 7 billion years.
NASA and The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)
During the red giant phase, Mercury and Venus will certainly be engulfed by the Sun, while Earth may or may not, depending on certain processes that have yet to be fully worked out. The icy worlds beyond Neptune will likely melt and sublimate, and are unlikely to survive the death of our star.
Once the Sun's outer layers are returned to the interstellar medium, all that remains will be a few charred corpses of worlds orbiting the white dwarf remnant of our Sun. The core, largely composed of carbon and oxygen, will total about 50% the mass of our present Sun, but will only be approximately the physical size of Earth.
When lower-mass, Sun-like stars run out of fuel, they blow off their outer layers in a planetary nebula, but the center contracts down to form a white dwarf, which takes a very long time to fade to darkness. The planetary nebula our Sun will generate should fade away completely, with only the white dwarf and our remnant planets left, after approximately 9.5 billion years. On occasion, objects will be tidally torn apart, adding dusty rings to what remains of our Solar System, but they will be transient.
When lower-mass, Sun-like stars run out of fuel, they blow off their outer layers in a planetary nebula, but the center contracts down to form a white dwarf, which takes a very long time to fade to darkness. The planetary nebula our Sun will generate should fade away completely, with only the white dwarf and our remnant planets left, after approximately 9.5 billion years. On occasion, objects will be tidally torn apart, adding dusty rings to what remains of our Solar System, but they will be transient.
Mark Garlick / University of Warwick
This white dwarf star will remain hot for an extremely long time. Heat is an amount of energy that gets trapped inside any object, but can only be radiated away through its surface. Imagine taking half the energy in a star like our Sun, then compressing that energy down into an even smaller volume. What will happen?
It will heat up. If you take gas in a cylinder and compress it rapidly, it heats up: this is how a piston in your combustion engine works. The red giant stars that give rise to white dwarfs are actually much cooler than the dwarf itself. During the contraction phase, temperatures increase from as low as 3,000 K (for a red giant) to up to about 20,000 K (for a white dwarf). This type of heating is due to adiabatic compression, and explains why these dwarf stars are so hot.
When our Sun runs out of fuel, it will become a red giant, followed by a planetary nebula with a white dwarf at the center. The Cat's Eye nebula is a visually spectacular example of this potential fate, with the intricate, layered, asymmetrical shape of this particular one suggesting a binary companion. At the center, a young white dwarf heats up as it contracts, reaching temperatures tens of thousands of Kelvin hotter than the red giant that spawned it.
When our Sun runs out of fuel, it will become a red giant, followed by a planetary nebula with a white dwarf at the center. The Cat's Eye nebula is a visually spectacular example of this potential fate, with the intricate, layered, asymmetrical shape of this particular one suggesting a binary companion. At the center, a young white dwarf heats up as it contracts, reaching temperatures tens of thousands of Kelvin hotter than the red giant that spawned it.
NASA, ESA, HEIC, and The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA); Acknowledgment: R. Corradi (Isaac Newton Group of Telescopes, Spain) and Z. Tsvetanov (NASA)
But now, it's got to cool down, and it can only radiate away through its small, tiny, Earth-sized surface. If you were to form a white dwarf right now, at 20,000 K, and give it 13.8 billion years to cool down (the present age of the Universe), it would cool down by a whopping 40 K: to 19,960 K.
We've got a terribly long time to wait if we want our Sun to cool down to the point where it becomes invisible. However, once our Sun has run out of fuel, the Universe will happily provide ample amounts of time. Sure, all the galaxies in the Local Group will merge together; all the galaxies beyond will accelerate away due to dark energy; star formation will slow to a trickle and the lowest-mass red dwarfs will burn through their fuel. Still, our white dwarf will continue to cool.
An accurate size/color comparison of a white dwarf (L), Earth reflecting our Sun's light (middle), and a black dwarf (R). When white dwarfs finally radiate the last of their energy away, they will all eventually become black dwarfs. The degeneracy pressure between the electrons within the white/black dwarf, however, will always be great enough, so long as it doesn't accrue too much mass, to prevent it from collapsing further. This is the fate of our Sun after an estimated 10^15 years.
An accurate size/color comparison of a white dwarf (L), Earth reflecting our Sun's light (middle), and a black dwarf (R). When white dwarfs finally radiate the last of their energy away, they will all eventually become black dwarfs. The degeneracy pressure between the electrons within the white/black dwarf, however, will always be great enough, so long as it doesn't accrue too much mass, to prevent it from collapsing further. This is the fate of our Sun after an estimated 10^15 years.
BBC / GCSE (L) / SunflowerCosmos (R)
At last, after somewhere between 100 trillion and 1 quadrillion years (1014 to 1015 years) have passed, the white dwarf that our Sun will become will fade out of the visible part of the spectrum and cool down to just a few degrees above absolute zero. Now known as a black dwarf, this ball of carbon and oxygen in space will simply zip through whatever becomes of our galaxy, along with over a trillion other stars and stellar corpses left over from our Local Group.
But that isn't truly the end for our Sun, either. There are three possible fates that await it, depending on how lucky (or unlucky) we get.
When a large number of gravitational interactions between star systems occur, one star can receive a large enough kick to be ejected from whatever structure it's a part of. We observe runaway stars in the Milky Way even today; once they're gone, they'll never return. This is estimated to occur for our Sun at some point between 10^17 to 10^19 years from now, depending on the density of stellar corpses in what our Local Group becomes.
When a large number of gravitational interactions between star systems occur, one star can receive a large enough kick to be ejected from whatever structure it's a part of. We observe runaway stars in the Milky Way even today; once they're gone, they'll never return. This is estimated to occur for our Sun at some point between 10^17 to 10^19 years from now, depending on the density of stellar corpses in what our Local Group becomes.
J. Walsh and Z. Levay, ESA/NASA
1.) Completely unlucky. About half of all stellar corpses in the galaxy — in most galaxies — originate as singlet star systems, much like our own Sun. While multi-star systems are common, with approximately 50% of all known stars found in binary or trinary (or even richer) systems, our Sun is the only star in our own Solar System.
This is hugely important for the future, because it makes it extraordinarily unlikely that our Sun will merge with a companion, or to swallow a companion or be swallowed by another companion. We'd be defying the odds if we merged with another star or stellar corpse out there. Assuming that we don't get lucky, all our Sun's corpse will see in the future is countless gravitational interactions with the other masses, which ought to culminate in what's left of our Solar System getting ejected from the galaxy after approximately 1017 to 1019 years.
Two different ways to make a Type Ia supernova: the accretion scenario (L) and the merger scenario (R). Without a binary companion, our Sun could never go supernova by accreting matter, but we could potentially merge with another white dwarf in the galaxy, which could lead us to revitalize in a Type Ia supernova explosion after all.
Two different ways to make a Type Ia supernova: the accretion scenario (L) and the merger scenario (R). Without a binary companion, our Sun could never go supernova by accreting matter, but we could potentially merge with another white dwarf in the galaxy, which could lead us to revitalize in a Type Ia supernova explosion after all.
NASA / CXC / M. Weiss
2.) Lucky enough to revitalize. You might think, for good reason, that once the white dwarf that our Sun becomes cools off, there's no chance for it to ever shine again. But there are many ways for our Sun to get a new lease on life, and to emit its own powerful radiation once again. To do so, all it needs is a new source of matter. If, even in the distant future, our Sun:
  • merges with a red dwarf star or a brown dwarf,
  • accumulates hydrogen gas from a molecular cloud or gaseous planet,
  • or runs into another stellar corpse,
it can ignite nuclear fusion once again. The first scenario will result in at least many millions of years of hydrogen burning; the second will lead to a burst of fusion known as a nova; the last will lead to a runaway supernova explosion, destroying both stellar corpses. If we experience an event like this before we get ejected, our cosmic luck will be on display for everyone remaining in our galaxy to witness.
The nova of the star GK Persei, shown here in an X-ray (blue), radio (pink), and optical (yellow) composite, is a great example of what we can see using the best telescopes of our current generation. When a white dwarf accretes enough matter, nuclear fusion can spike on its surface, creating a temporary brilliant flare known as a nova. If our Sun's corpse collides with a gas cloud or a clump of hydrogen (such as a rouge gas giant planet), it could go nova even after becoming a black dwarf.
The nova of the star GK Persei, shown here in an X-ray (blue), radio (pink), and optical (yellow) composite, is a great example of what we can see using the best telescopes of our current generation. When a white dwarf accretes enough matter, nuclear fusion can spike on its surface, creating a temporary brilliant flare known as a nova. If our Sun's corpse collides with a gas cloud or a clump of hydrogen (such as a rouge gas giant planet), it could go nova even after becoming a black dwarf.
X-ray: NASA/CXC/RIKEN/D.Takei et al; Optical: NASA/STScI; Radio: NRAO/VLA
3.) Super lucky, where we'll get devoured by a black hole. In the outskirts of our galaxy, some 25,000 light-years from the supermassive black hole occupying our galactic center, only the small black holes formed from individual stars exist. They have the smallest cross-sectional area of any massive object in the Universe. As far as galactic targets go, these stellar-mass black holes are some of the hardest objects to hit.
But occasionally, they do get hit. Small black holes, when they encounter matter, accelerate and funnel it into an accretion flow, where some fraction of the matter gets devoured and added to the black hole's mass, but most of it gets ejected in the form of jets and other debris. These active, low-mass black holes are known as microquasars when they flare up, and they're very real phenomena.
Although it's exceedingly unlikely to happen to us, someone's got to win the cosmic lottery, and those who do will become black hole food for their final act.
When a star or stellar corpse passes too close to a black hole, the tidal forces from this concentrated mass are capable of completely destroying the object by tearing it apart. Although a small fraction of the matter will be devoured by the black hole, most of it will simply accelerate and be ejected back into space.
When a star or stellar corpse passes too close to a black hole, the tidal forces from this concentrated mass are capable of completely destroying the object by tearing it apart. Although a small fraction of the matter will be devoured by the black hole, most of it will simply accelerate and be ejected back into space.
Illustration: NASA/CXC/M.Weiss; X-ray (top): NASA/CXC/MPE/S.Komossa et al. (L); Optical: ESO/MPE/S.Komossa (R)
Almost every object in the Universe has a large set of possibilities as far as what's going to happen to it in the far future, and it's incredibly difficult to determine a single object's fate given the chaotic environment of our corner of the cosmos. But by knowing the physics behind the objects we have, and understanding what the probabilities and timescales for each type of object is, we can better estimate what anyone's fate should be.
For our Sun, we're going to become a white dwarf after less than another 10 billion years, will fade to a black dwarf after ~1014-1015 years, and will get ejected from the galaxy after 1017-1019 years. At least, that's the most probable path. But mergers, gas accumulation, collisions, or even getting devoured are all possibilities too, and they'll happen to someone, even if it's probably not us. Our future may not yet be written, but we'd be smart to bet on a bright one for trillions of years to come!
Astrophysicist and author Ethan Siegel is the founder and primary writer of Starts With A Bang! His books, Treknology and Beyond The Galaxy, are available wherever books are sold.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/06/11/this-is-what-will-happen-to-our-sun-after-it-dies/?fbclid=IwAR0L-5uNb-qu76IcBDtvMknNsGAo6drMnr_073PQmrHTeFx--BKjPtY9-JU#421addae23e2
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Saturday, June 8, 2019

A seismologist present at the discovery of plate tectonics

As a young seismologist in the 1960s, Lynn Sykes made crucial observations of earthquakes under the ocean floors that helped solidify the theory of plate tectonics—the foundation of modern geology. Later, hoping to apply his discoveries to saving lives, he helped identify zones prone to great earthquakes, particularly along coastlines. He also went on to assess the risks that earthquakes pose to nuclear power plants, and to advance the use of seismology to detect nuclear-bomb tests.
In his 2017 book Silencing the Bomb, Sykes described his lifelong quest to turn back the clock on nuclear proliferation. In a new memoir, Plate Tectonics and Great Earthquakes: 50 Years of Earth-Shaking Events, Sykes takes readers on a scientific and personal journey through the rest of his work, carried out over more than five decades at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
We spoke with Sykes about what influenced his career, what he encountered along the way, and unanswered questions that researchers today face.
Why did you become a seismologist?
As an undergraduate in the late 1950s, I was very interested in geophysics, the application of physics and geology to the study of the earth. I narrowed my field to earthquakes when I applied to graduate school. I visited Lamont, where seismologist Jack Oliver spent a lot of time with me on a Saturday morning. I decided to work with him.
Plate tectonics is basically the unifying theory about how the Earth works. In 100 words or fewer, what is it?
The outer 100 miles of the earth is composed of about 15 plates of strong, rigid rock that move with respect to one another, much like cakes of ice on a river. They are underlain by rock called the asthenosphere, which is close to the melting point, the gliding layer of plate tectonics. Most earth deformation, earthquakes and volcanoes occur at the boundaries of plates, where they either move apart from one another as along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, converge as along island arcs and deep sea trenches like Japan, or slide by one another as along California's San Andreas fault.
In the book, you say you were once a plate-tectonics skeptic. What changed your mind?
Wrong question–I was never a plate-tectonics skeptic, but I was a continental drift skeptic. As an undergraduate I was told that bright young scientists should not work on vague, incorrect ideas like continental drift. That theory was proposed by Alfred Wegener more than 100 years ago. From 1920 to the 1960s, most earth scientists in North America, including me, believed drift did not occur. I became a convert to continental drift and sea-floor spreading one day in late spring 1966, when I obtained my first mechanism solutions of earthquakes along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. They agreed with Tuzo Wilson's hypothesis of transform faulting along huge fracture zones that displace segments of ridges. My finding showed that the Mid-Atlantic Ridge was growing along its ridge crests and that continents on the two sides of the Atlantic were moving apart. I went on in 1968 with colleagues Jack Oliver and Bryan Isacks to show how plate motion was occurring where one plate plunges beneath another at subduction zones like the Aleutians, Japan and Tonga.
What percentage of plate tectonics do we truly understand? Are we now down to just cleaning up details, or are there still big remaining mysteries?
Most present-day motions of the earth's plates are well understood. We have known since the 1960s that plate motion is very concentrated in the oceans, but more diffuse [elsewhere], especially in Asia. We still don't understand that diffuse motion very well. When in the earth's history plate tectonics started is still widely debated.
In part due to your work, we can now pinpoint places where big earthquakes are likely to happen. But we still can't predict when, or how big. Why not?
I have worked for several decades on long-term earthquake prediction on a time scale of 10 to 20 years. Great earthquakes cannot occur at the same place in a short amount of time. The pressures or stresses released suddenly in a great shock must be slowly built back up by plate motion. Using rates of plate motion and time intervals between past great shocks helps estimate better the times of occurrence of future great earthquakes.
You've explored the risks posed by nuclear power plants in seismic zones, from Japan's Fukushima to New York's Indian Point, right near your house. What have you learned?
Fukushima was largely a human-induced disaster, in that officials in Japan did not believe it could happen, and did not take steps to lessen or reduce the damage that followed the 2011 giant earthquake and tsunami. Similarly, officials of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in the U.S. have learned few lessons from the Fukushima disaster. They continue to insist that U.S. reactors are safe, and do not respond to reasonable critics.
What are you working on now?
Understanding the occurrence, or lack thereof, of great earthquakes at a large number of subduction zones around the world. On a different topic, I continue to work on ways to lessen the chances of nuclear war.

https://phys.org/news/2019-06-seismologist-discovery-plate-tectonics.html?fbclid=IwAR2dbCfp4hpYn6pqJYLWzbJHs1GFAhV7BdqZAwg1qBIPpZW0ERUozOkoggc
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Friday, June 7, 2019

Mount Etna Is Erupting Right Now And It's Putting On A Spectacular Show

Mount Etna is gifting the world with a new eruption, and as is par for the course for this decidedly strange mountain of fantastic fiery fountains, it’s putting on a breathtaking show. The photographs, taken by Boris Behncke, a volcanologist at the Etna Observatory (and someone who lives in the shadow of this Sicilian stratovolcano), speak for themselves. Footage obtained by several news networks, including ABC News, is proving to be equally resplendent stuff.
Here’s a quick rundown of what’s going on at Etna right now, and how it fits with the recent history of the volcano.
So, what’s happening?
As Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) explains on a recent blog post, the nascent eruption began on the night of May 29. Starting off by producing a thick column of ash rising from the New Southeast Crater, it gave way on May 30 to a far more lava-heavy display in the area, featuring two fissures blenching out lava.
The use of the word “belching” is probably more scientifically pertinent than you think. In somewhat crude terms, this sort of eruption involves a collection of gas escaping from the magma within the volcano’s conduit, a roughly vertical pipe that’s a bit like a volcano’s oesophagus. If it can’t quickly bubble out of the magma and sneak into the atmosphere, perhaps because the magma is a little more gloopy than it otherwise could be, this gas tends to gather together and form a large slug-like gassy mass. When this slug reaches the top of the conduit, it bursts forth from the volcano’s vent or fissure (one of several, in this case), sending blobs and flecks of lava skywards with it.
See? This eruption style is the volcanic equivalent of a burp, perhaps with a little bit of, um, extra stomach material being brought along for the ride. This is technically known as a Strombolian eruption style, named after Stromboli, another beautiful and reliably hyperactive Italian volcano found within the volcanic Aeolian Islands, which are all just north of Etna itself.
Sometimes this style can create fountains of lava tens of even hundreds of metres high; in this case, the volcanic burps appear to be a little minor but frequent, causing hyperactive spattering landing on the volcano’s slopes and onto a couple of lava flows.
As the blog post notes, as of the morning of May 31, a northern lava flow stretched out toward the Valle del Bove, a rather sizeable horseshoe-shaped pit on Etna’s eastern flanks. As it did so, the lava turned eastwards, and managed to stretch out at a distance of around 2,000 metres (nearly 6,600 feet). The second lava flow is more southerly; it’s sneaking along the inside of the Valle del Bove’s western wall. As of May 31, it’s about 3,000 metres (9,850 feet) long.
Interestingly, this southern flow is being fed from a crack right near the fissures that produced another substantial lava-rich eruption last December. Those fissures are pretty much brand-new: they emerged on Christmas Eve after 130 tremors at the volcano back then seemed to suggest magma was making its way to the surface.
Although Etna has been active for some time, this eruption was significant as it was the first flank (side) eruption, not summit eruption, at Etna for more than a decade. According to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program, this paroxysm was part of a prolonged volcanic sequence that began all the way back in September 2013.
Already bored with those December 2018 lava flows, this new river of lava is already partly burying them.
Where on Etna is this eruption taking place?
Although it varies from eruption to eruption, summit eruptions tend to be a little less dangerous to people who live on Etna’s considerably massive slopes than flank eruptions. If you have a prolific lava flow, one at the summit is less likely to make it far downslope, whereas a flank eruption stands a better chance. An explosion flank eruption, which could cause a cascade of lava outpourings, landslides and perhaps even pyroclastic flows, is a real risk, so anytime there’s signs of a flank eruption those at the INGV can, rather understandably, get a little anxious.
As Behncke points out in a recent tweet, this eruption is “sub-terminal.” This means that although it’s not taking place at the summit craters themselves, it’s pretty close to them, around 3,000 metres (9,850 feet) elevation. It’s only another 350 metres (1,150 feet) or so to the top.
Is this normal for Etna?
Definitely. Although a little unpredictable, Etna has been erupting in some form or another for years now. Back just this February, for example, ash clouds were seen rising skyward from a series of small blasts from the so-called Roof of the Mediterranean.
Here, you can see some minor ash emissions from Etna’s Northeast Crater on February 19, 2019. (Marco Restivo/Barcroft Images/Barcroft Media via Getty Images) Here, you can see some minor ash emissions from Etna’s Northeast Crater on February 19, 2019. (Marco Restivo/Barcroft Images/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
Here, you can see some minor ash emissions from Etna’s Northeast Crater on February 19, 2019. (Marco Restivo/Barcroft Images/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
Getty
So there’s nothing to worry about then?
Right. All indications are, then, that this eruption poses no threat to any of the million or so people that call Etna’s flanks home. If you’re planning to visit Sicily in the near future, then worry not, you’re perfectly safe from Etna’s fireworks show.
Saying that, Etna certainly has and will again someday pose a threat: thanks to its strange and enigmatic magmatic plumbing system, this volcano can engage in a myriad of eruption styles, from quick-moving lava cascades to sudden, explosive magma-water blasts, some of which can be somewhat difficult to foresee.
Loading video On top of all that, it’s (very, very slowly) sliding into the Ionian Sea, which could one day lead to a major flank collapse. This could not only trigger a violent eruption but also a megatsunami that could find its way across to the eastern Mediterranean and devastate its shores. Don’t panic, though – there’s zero evidence that this, or any sort of major eruption, is “imminent” or “due” in any sense of the word.
It’s good to know then that researchers from all over the world, including the INGV, are keeping a very close eye on it. If something wicked is afoot with this tricksy volcano, don’t worry, they’ll be the first to let everyone know.
I want to know more about Etna’s volcanic past!
Well that’s lucky, because I’ve got you covered: scroll down to the appropriate section on this article about the December 2018 flank eruption.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinandrews/2019/05/31/mount-etna-is-erupting-right-now-and-its-putting-on-a-spectacular-show/amp/?fbclid=IwAR0VhF8NMZyznj7lVqJeP1qTXy0QWEu6zfWsz_XuiKNAoUKjjhkM8Y4zJzQ
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Football field-sized asteroid could hit Earth this year

An enormous asteroid with a diameter wider than a football field has a roughly one in 7,000 chance of hitting the Earth later this year. However, it’s nothing to lose sleep over.
Known as asteroid 2006 QV89, the space rock, which has a diameter of 164 feet, could potentially hit the planet on Sept. 9, 2019, according to a list of the most concerning space objects compiled by the European Space Agency. The ESA has 2006 QV89 ranked fourth on its top ten list.
According to current modeling, it’s likely that 2006 QV89, which is on the risk list but not the priority list, will pass Earth at a distance of more than 4.2 million miles. The ESA does note that the likelihood of its model being off is less than one-hundredth of one percent.
The space rock was discovered on Aug. 29, 2006, by the Catalina Sky Survey.
Although extremely rare, asteroids have hit the planet previously and caused significant damage.
In 1908, there was an enormous explosion near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in Yeniseysk Governorate, Russia, that flattened roughly 770 square miles of forest, likely due to a meteorite. It is now known as the Tunguska event.
Over 100 years later, in an occurrence now known as the Chelyabinsk Event, a meteor entered the Earth’s atmosphere on Feb. 15, 2013, over Russia and crashed. The damage from the explosion caused the damage to more than 7,200 buildings and resulted in nearly 1,500 injuries, though none of them were fatal.
NASA has recently expanded its planetary defense protocols, including last year’s unveiling of a bold new plan to protect Earth.
Last June, NASA unveiled a 20-page plan that details the steps the US should take to be better prepared for near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets that come within 30 million miles of the planet.
Lindley Johnson, the space agency’s planetary defense officer, said at the time that the country “already has significant scientific, technical and operational capabilities” to help with NEOs, but implementing the new plan would “greatly increase our nation’s readiness and work with international partners to effectively respond should a new potential asteroid impact be detected.”
In addition to enhancing NEO detection, tracking and characterizing capabilities and improving modeling prediction, the plan also aims to develop technologies for deflecting NEOs, increasing international cooperation and establishing new NEO impact emergency procedures and action protocols.
According to a 2018 report put together by Planetary.org, there are more than 18,000 NEOs.
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Tuesday, June 4, 2019

5.6R in Taiwan <--Spot on

A strong 5.6R earthquake was reported today in Taiwan. The epicenter is shown in the map above. It was 54km east from the city of Taitung. Below we show you the stress map of the region calculated for today.The Green dots are the calculated stress points. We see the lower right dot is only 1 degree off in latitude. Not bad! Our expectation was high also for today because of the calendar below, where we see peaks for 3-4th June.


Magnitudemb 5.6
RegionTAIWAN REGION
Date time2019-06-04 09:46:18.2 UTC
Location22.87 N ; 121.66 E
Depth10 km
Distances141 km E of Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 1,520,000 / local time: 17:46:18.2 2019-06-04
123 km S of Hualian, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 351,000 / local time: 17:46:18.2 2019-06-04
54 km E of Taitung City, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 111,000 / local time: 17:46:18.2 2019-06-04



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6.4R in Japan


Early this morning there has bee n report for a 6.4R earthquake in the region of Izu Islands in Japan. As shown in the map this is far away from the main islands some 650km from Shizuoka-shi. From the Japan Calendar as shown below, it is just a day off as 3rd is a fair peak to expect an event. The last map below is also the stress map of the region according to our methods showing the nearest to the epicenter, which is just a degree off in one direction, exact in the other.



MagnitudeMw 6.4
RegionIZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
Date time2019-06-04 04:39:17.6 UTC
Location29.09 N ; 139.21 E
Depth440 km
Distances706 km S of Yokohama-shi, Japan / pop: 3,575,000 / local time: 13:39:17.6 2019-06-04
657 km S of Shizuoka-shi, Japan / pop: 702,000 / local time: 13:39:17.6 2019-06-04


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Monday, June 3, 2019

Some thoughts



4.5R and above in this region, for time period of 2019. Sometimes this kind of convergence is possible. It certainly needs more work to be done.

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Sunday, June 2, 2019

4.6R in Turkey

A 4.6R earthquake has just been reported in Turkey at the location shown in the map above. It is 8km South of Hendek, in Turkey, 155km from Instabul. The map below shows the stress points in small pink dots on Turkey. Using our methods we can see the subsidiary danger locations and the red dot is the one near the epicenter. Less then a degree we have declination in one dimesion. Not bad, although this is about just over a day than the expected day, so this is early.




Magnitudemb 4.6
RegionWESTERN TURKEY
Date time2019-06-02 13:08:47.7 UTC
Location40.73 N ; 30.75 E
Depth7 km
Distances155 km E of İstanbul, Turkey / pop: 11,175,000 / local time: 16:08:47.7 2019-06-02
30 km E of Adapazarı, Turkey / pop: 287,000 / local time: 16:08:47.7 2019-06-02
8 km S of Hendek, Turkey / pop: 35,300 / local time: 16:08:47.7 2019-06-02


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VANUATU: June 2019 using FDL

Using our published FDL method, we use it as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of additional stresses exerted in a region which may lead to earthquakes or not.. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram we can see Vanuatu Stress Calendar for the period of June 2019.

For this period we can observe that there is a Higher* probability to have an event >4R if the stresses coincide on faults. For example in Vanuatu on  7th,  25th and 30th  June 2019 are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

(Note the scales are not Richeter nor logarithmic they are dates of increased probability).
The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)



You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer

Our new ANDROID APP is now on Google Play

You can download it free from
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mcom.bloggerapiapp&hl=en&
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TURKEY: June 2019 using FDL

Using our published FDL method, we use it as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of additional stresses exerted in a region which may lead to earthquakes or not.. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram we can see Turkey Stress Calendar for the period of June 2019.

For this period we can observe that there is a Higher* probability to have an event >4R if the stresses coincide on faults. For example in Turkey on 4-6th, 11th, 18th, 24th and 30th  June 2019 are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

(Note the scales are not Richeter nor logarithmic they are dates of increased probability).
The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)


You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer

Our new ANDROID APP is now on Google Play

You can download it free from
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mcom.bloggerapiapp&hl=en&
Read more..

TAIWAN: June 2019 using FDL

Using our published FDL method, we use it as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of additional stresses exerted in a region which may lead to earthquakes or not.. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram we can see Taiwan Stress Calendar for the period of June 2019.

For this period we can observe that there is a Higher* probability to have an event >4R if the stresses coincide on faults. For example in Taiwan on  3rd-6th, 16th-18th, and 27th  June 2019 are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

(Note the scales are not Richeter nor logarithmic they are dates of increased probability).
The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)


You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer

Our new ANDROID APP is now on Google Play

You can download it free from
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mcom.bloggerapiapp&hl=en&
Read more..

Solomon Islands: FDL for June 2019

Using our published FDL method, we use it as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of additional stresses exerted in a region which may lead to earthquakes or not.. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram we can see Solomon Islands Stress Calendar for the period of June 2019.

For this period we can observe that there is a Higher* probability to have an event >4R if the stresses coincide on faults. For example in Solomon Islands on  1st, 8th, 12th and 16th June 2019 are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

(Note the scales are not Richeter nor logarithmic they are dates of increased probability).
The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)


You can read about our methodology here.

Disclaimer

Our new ANDROID APP is now on Google Play

You can download it free from
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mcom.bloggerapiapp&hl=en&
Read more..

5.9R in Tonga



Tonga has just a few minutes ago had a 5.9R in their region, as shown in the top map. Not unusual nor an earthshattering event for their region which experiences at least this level. Just above the map shows today's stress points in this are and it is spot on in one coordinate, off by 2 degrees in the other. Did we expect this event? Yes see the Tonga calendar we expected it yesterday so within the tolerance window. Not bad.

MagnitudeMw 5.9
RegionTONGA
Date time2019-06-02 10:36:41.1 UTC
Location21.59 S ; 174.43 W
Depth80 km
Distances95 km SE of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 23:36:41.1 2019-06-02
61 km SE of ‘Ohonua, Tonga / pop: 1,300 / local time: 23:36:41.1 2019-06-02

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