Monday, March 27, 2017

5.0R in Solomon Islands....


A couple of days early, but this part of the world is 'hot' so we may see more in a couple of days. Our prediction for the 29th was Solomon Islands (10.4S, 160.3E) very close to todays epicenter....

Magnitude

mb 5.0
RegionSOLOMON ISLANDS
Date time2017-03-27 02:41:58.6 UTC
Location11.55 S ; 161.88 E
Depth10 km
Distances315 km SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands / pop: 56,300 / local time: 13:41:58.6 2017-03-27
121 km S of Kirakira, Solomon Islands / pop: 1,200 / local time: 13:41:58.6 2017-03-27
Read more..

4.6R in Negros, Philippines! <--As predicted



This 4.6R event came in today in Philippines at location (9.53N, 122.5E). We expected this and we suggested the location...Philippines (10.3N, 124.4E, 127.3E) in our post yesterday.

Magnitude

mb 4.6
RegionNEGROS, PHILIPPINES
Date time2017-03-27 08:20:37.6 UTC
Location9.53 N ; 122.50 E
Depth8 km
Distances334 km NW of Budta, Philippines / pop: 1,274,000 / local time: 16:20:37.6 2017-03-27
176 km SW of Cebu City, Philippines / pop: 799,000 / local time: 16:20:37.6 2017-03-27
135 km S of Bacolod City, Philippines / pop: 455,000 / local time: 16:20:37.6 2017-03-27
3 km SW of Asia, Philippines / pop: 23,600 / local time: 16:20:37.6 2017-03-27
Read more..

6.2R Aleutian Islands! As expected.


We expected yesterday a strong event and it has come today. One day delay. Our methods expected a >5.5R earthquake as we warned about it.

Magnitude

Mw 6.2
RegionNEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
Date time2017-03-27 10:50:19.6 UTC
Location52.78 N ; 172.21 E
Depth15 km
Distances2521 km NE of Sapporo-shi, Japan / pop: 1,884,000 / local time: 19:50:19.6 2017-03-27
911 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy, Russian Federation / pop: 188,000 / local time: 22:50:19.6 2017-03-27
Read more..

Nuke watchdog critical as robot failures mount at Fukushima plant

The Asahi Shimbun
Some Nuclear Regulation Authority members are skeptical of continuing to send robots into reactors in the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant to collect vital data on the locations of melted nuclear fuel and radiation levels.
These regulators are increasingly calling for a new survey methodology after recent investigations utilizing robots controlled remotely generated few findings and were quickly terminated.
“We should come up with a method that will allow us to investigate in a short period of time and in a more sensible way,” said a senior member of the NRA, the government watchdog.
The suggestion followed the failure of the latest probe from March 18 to March 22 in which a robot was sent in the No. 1 reactor to ascertain the location of fuel debris, information crucial to preparing for the decommissioning.
Tokyo Electric Power Co., the operator of the plant, said on March 23 the robot was unable to deliver a camera to planned spots from where images of nuclear fuel debris could be taken.
The utility cited the piping and deposits of what looked like sand accumulating on the piping as impediments that hindered the robot surveyor's path.
The survey was designed for the robot to reach numerous locations inside the No. 1 reactor to determine the location of nuclear fuel debris and their radiation levels.
The lower part of the reactor’s containment vessel is submerged in water where deposits of fuel debris are believed to reside below the surface after melting through in the 2011 nuclear disaster, triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.
At one location, the robot succeeded in placing a camera, which is combined with a dosimeter, to a depth 0.3 meter from the containment vessel floor.
The probe measured underwater radiation levels from 3.0 to 11 sieverts per hour during the five-day survey. But it was unable to take images of the debris in the water.
TEPCO and the government hope to start removing molten nuclear fuel from 2021. But they have yet to collect information on the location, amount and condition of the melted fuel.
In a survey of the No. 2 reactor in February, a robot became stuck in deposits and other debris after traveling only 2 meters inside.
Surveyor robots for the No. 1 through No. 3 reactors have been developed by the International Research Institute for Nuclear Decommissioning since 2014, a project costing 7 billion yen ($62 million) by the end of March 2018.
It takes time to develop such multifunctional robots, but the surveys centering around the robots so far have failed to produce meaningful results.
No survey has been conducted at the No. 3 reactor.
(This article was written by Kohei Tomida and Masanobu Higashiyama.)


http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201703240064.html
Read more..

'Quake-Weather 29th March 2017': A Global Earthquake Review

In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

Using our methods we can deduce that for 29th March 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
March 29th is supposed to be a fairly strong day as far as eartquake activity likely to be of  similar or increased intensity compared to 28th March.   Notable Geocentric Aspects are Mercury semisquare Neptune, Mercury trine Saturn, and Heliocentric Jupiter Square Pluto, Earth quincunx Neptune and Mercury square Uranus
The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

AMERICAS:

  • Ecuador: Seems to be peaking on 26th March. .Possible places here are (4.2S, 79.2W)
  • California, . This could show small on (40.5N, 124.2W, (34.2N, 118.2W)
  • Chile,   (19.3S, 70.5W), (28.25S,70.5W)
  • Mexico (16.5N, 100.5W)
  • Peru (17.1S, 70.5W)
EUROPE:
  • Greece (35.5N,28.2E), (34.2N, 25.3E)
  • France (49.2N, -1.34W)

ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.
  • Indonesia:  (10.5S, 118.2E)
  • Tonga (22.5S, 175.5E)
  • Vanuatu (17.1S, 168E)
  • Solomon Islands (10.4S, 160.3E)
  • Japan (34.5N, 139E)

Read more..

Sunday, March 26, 2017

'Quake-Weather 28th March 2017': A Global Earthquake Review

In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

Using our methods we can deduce that for 28th March 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
March 28th is supposed to be a fairly strong day as far as eartquake activity likely to be of  similar or reduced intensity compared to 27th March.   Notable Geocentric Aspects areMoon conj. Sun, Venus quincunx N Node and Heliocentric Jupiter Square Pluto.
The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

AMERICAS:

  • Ecuador: Seems to be peaking on 26th March. .Possible places here are (4.2S, 79.2W)
  • California, . This could show small on (40.5N, 124.2W, (34.2N, 118.2W)
  • Chile, shows a  peak on 26th March. This could  be delayed events at locations  (19.3S, 70.3W), (22.2S, 70.3W), (25.4S, 70.3W)
  • British Columbia (51.4N, 126.5W)
EUROPE:
  • Bosphorus (40.4N,28.3E)
  • Romania (45.4N, 25.4E)

ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.
  • Nepal: A possible small event could appear at (28.3N, 85.4E)
  • Bangladesh (22.4N, 91.2E), (25.4N, 91.2E)
  • Indonesia:  (4.2S, 124.2E)
  • Tajikistan : 40.5N, 70.3E)
  • Japan:  (34.1N, 139.2E), (36.5N, 141E)
  • Philippines (10.3N, 124.4E)
  • Iran, (36.5N, 51.3E) 
  • Taiwan (25.4N, 121.2E) 
  • PNG (4.2S, 150.3E, 151.3E)
  • China (40.4N,100.4E)
Read more..

Nepal Red Cross distributes more than NRs. 58.3 million as second tranche payments for over 385 earthquake victim home reconstructions

Nepal Red Cross distributes more than NRs. 58.3 million as second tranche payments for over 385 earthquake victim home reconstructions
The Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS) has disbursed second tranche payments of NRs. 1,50,000 each to 389 households. These Red Cross-supported homes all passed government technical inspection for the second tranche after the government second tranche distribution guidelines were released in January 2017. Nepal Red Cross Society is also providing technical and financial support to over 6,000 more families to help them achieve reconstruction goals. In addition, NRCS has started to disburse the third tranche from Ramechhap district.
The Red Cross is providing families with full technical and NRs. 3,00,000 financial rebuilding support packages in accordance with government policies. Over 6,350 households have already collected their first tranche payments of NRs. 50,000 from NRCS, totaling over NRs. 318 million.
“I had no trouble getting the second tranche,” says Purna Bahadur Gurung from Thulogaun VDC, Rasuwa District. His home recently passed the technical inspection by government engineers and he was able to collect the second tranche from the Red Cross. He particularly appreciates the technical team of engineers and architects the Red Cross supported to be stationed in the area, which made it easy for Purna Bahadur Gurung and his neighbours to receive free technical drawings and seek advice to ensure homes met post-earthquake building standards. “I made my house according to their drawings and measurements. Whenever I was confused about something, I’d call the technical team, and they’d come the same day,” says Purna Bahadur. “I think it is good that the technical team is here. If you don’t understand something, they explain it. If you build according to technical advice, it will pass the inspection for the next tranche.”
Maina Singh Tamang from Kaule VDC, Nuwakot District participated in a Red Cross-funded mason training. He is one of over 4,200 masons trained and certified under NRCS’ earthquake recovery program. “Since I took the one-week training, there’s been a big change in the way I work,” says Maina Singh, who is working on his own home as well as leading construction on several others. “Before we used to try to work as quickly as possible and with whatever materials we could find. Now even if we’re still working with stone, I’m building in ways that make it safer to prevent collapse. If there are any issues the engineers visit and teach us what to do better.”
Nepal Red Cross Society is one of the largest non-government partners in homeowner-driven post-earthquake home reconstruction. However, safer housing is just one part of NRCS’ integrated earthquake recovery programs. NRCS has activities all 14 districts that were classified as ‘most affected’ by the April 2015 earthquake. Other activities include:
  • Helping communities restore and improve drinking water systems and promoting hygiene;
  • Improving community access to better livelihoods through trainings, small livelihoods grants, irrigation systems, and cash-for-work opportunities;
  • Reconstructing health facilities and supporting local-level health programs including immunization, open defecation free initiatives, and psychosocial support.

    http://reliefweb.int/report/nepal/nepal-red-cross-distributes-more-nrs-583-million-second-tranche-payments-over-385
Read more..

China is Nepal's trusted development partner: PM Dahal

KATHMANDU - Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' has said China has been Nepal's reliable and trusted partner for development. 

Nepal-China partnership goes beyond the economic and social spheres, he added. 

Addressing a program on 'Nepal-China Relations: Prospects for Growth and Prosperity' organized by Beijing Foreign Studies University in China on Sunday, he said the spontaneous assistance rendered by the Chinese government and people in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake in 2015 won the hearts of Nepali people. 

Similarly, the Prime Minister said the generous pledge made by China for Nepal’s post-disaster reconstruction testifies to our cordial friendship. 

China’s support and goodwill in helping the development pursuits of Nepal have been outstanding. 

Lauding the Chinese take off in the economic front, he said, "While China makes incredible progress in every sphere, we, as a country with a least developed economy, suffer from several bottlenecks. 

In our pursuit to dismantle those hurdles, we have begun with the consolidation of political progress and now, our focus is on economic development. Our country, endowed as it is with both human and natural resources, has tremendous potentials for development." 

Prime Minister Prachanda thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping for the One Belt One Road initiative which, he said, offers tremendous opportunities for collaboration and partnership. "Looking back, some of you may be aware, Nepal used to be an important thoroughfare in the ancient silk route. 

It was a vibrant trade entrépot that connected parts of Central Asia with South Asia," he stressed. 

He reiterated that Nepal adheres to One-China policy. "We are committed to not allowing hostile activities against China on our soil," he said, adding that Nepal and China have cooperated with each other on many areas and at various levels -bilateral, regional and global. 

Addressing the professors, scholars, and academicians at the University, Prime Minister Prachanda underscored that it is not only geography, but markets that have connected us; not only history, destiny has connected us; and not only our past, the prospect of prosperous future has connected us. 

According to the PM, modern success story could be realized with success story of connectivity; of development; of mobility; and of shared prosperity.

Nepal has already signed a MoU on Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, we are in the final stage of concluding the extended MoU, he reminded on the occasion. 

Also, he underscored that Nepal and China have multiple avenues for partnership and expressed commitment to fully implementing the agreements and understandings reached in the past. 

Our engagement in the Asian Infrastructure Bank is a case in point. Similarly, Nepal has become a Dialogue Partner of Shanghai Cooperation Organization since last year, he noted. 

On Sunday itself, PM Dahal inaugurated the Centre for Nepali Studies at this University.

http://www.annapurnapost.com/annanote/news/5861/China-is-Nepal%27s-trusted-development-partner:-PM-Dahal
Read more..

'Quake-Weather 27th March 2017': A Global Earthquake Review

In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

Using our methods we can deduce that for 27th March 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
March 27th is supposed to be a strong day as far as eartquake activity likely to be of  increased intensity compared to 26th March.   Notable Geocentric Aspects are Mars sextile Neptune, Mars sesquisquare SaturnMercury Semisextile Chiron and Heliocentric Jupiter Square Pluto, Mercury trine Neptune, Jupiter square Pluto.
The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

AMERICAS:

  • Ecuador: Seems to be peaking on 26th March. .Possible places here are (4.2S, 79.2W)
  •  California, . This could show small on (40.3N, 124.2W, (37.3N, 122.2W)
  • Chile, shows a  peak on 26th March. This could  be delayed events at locations  (19.3S, 70.3W), (22.2S, 70.3W), (25.4S, 70.3W)
  • Mexico strong event(s) are possible here at (19.2N, 100.5W), (22.5N, 100.5W), (25.3N, 109.3W)
EUROPE:
  • Greece: Possible on (37.3N, 22.1E).
  • France: 49.3N, 3.8W)
  • Turkey (37.3N, 37.3E)
  • Russia (52.3N, 37.3E), (52.3N, 52.3E)

ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.
  • S. Korea: (37.3N, 127.3E)
  •  Indonesia: Expecting on 24th and as usual early events are possible in this active part of the world. (10.3S, 127.3E)
  • Japan: Japan enters a period which according to our methods peaks on 26th, but this gradual increase is likely to show a series of events before the 26th. (37.3N, 142.2E)
  • New Zealand: (40.3S, 175.4E), (37.3S, 175.4E)  if not on 26th, delayed strong event is due.
  • Australia (37.3S, 142.3E) (possible)
  • Philippines (10.3N, 124.4E, 127.3E) peak shows on 28th March
  • Iran, (37.3N, 52.3E)  Possible strong event here
  • Tonga (22.5S, 175.3E)   Tonga is possible as well for a fair event.
Read more..

3.1R in N California!



Three hours late and spot on coordinates a small event offshore N California.


Magnitude

ML 3.1
RegionOFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Date time2017-03-26 03:18:16.5 UTC
Location40.31 N ; 124.55 W
Depth19 km
Distances892 km NW of Los Angeles, United States / pop: 3,793,000 / local time: 20:18:16.5 2017-03-25
326 km NW of Sacramento, United States / pop: 467,000 / local time: 20:18:16.5 2017-03-25
64 km SW of Eureka, United States / pop: 27,200 / local time: 20:18:16.5 2017-03-25
38 km SW of Ferndale, United States / pop: 1,400 / local time: 20:18:16.5 2017-03-25
Read more..

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Strong event tomorrow??


According to our Global Calendar we expect to see a strong earthquake tomorrow. So far we have see earthquake events <5.5R over the last few days. The signal on 26th March as shown above seems to be of some concern.


Read more..

4.5R in Mexico! <---As predicted

We have repeatedly said that predictions can last at least a day ahead, and this  4.5R in Oaxaca  demonstrates again that it happens. The prediction location was as follows:........Mexico, shows a small peak on 24th March. This could show the usual 4-4.5R tomorrow. Keep an eye on (16.6N, 95.9W, 99.88W)  (27.3N, 110.87W)

Magnitude

M 4.5
RegionOAXACA, MEXICO
Date time2017-03-25 12:18:52.0 UTC
Location16.45 N ; 98.25 W
Depth30 km
Distances288 km S of Puebla de Zaragoza, Mexico / pop: 1,591,000 / local time: 06:18:52.0 2017-03-25
176 km W of Oaxaca de Juárez, Mexico / pop: 263,000 / local time: 06:18:52.0 2017-03-25
18 km E of Cuajinicuilapa, Mexico / pop: 9,400 / local time: 06:18:52.0 2017-03-25
Read more..

3.5R in Oklahoma ! <-----As Predicted!


The expected for today earthquake, in fact two small events, have arrived and this 3.5R is the strongest, in OKLAHOMA. We predicted coordinates Oklahoma: Another possible place here is at (35N, 99.9W), (35N, 95.2W) is off by a degree or so.

Magnitude

mb 3.5
RegionOKLAHOMA
Date time2017-03-25 11:05:34.4 UTC
Location36.27 N ; 97.57 W
Depth4 km
Distances393 km N of Dallas, United States / pop: 1,198,000 / local time: 06:05:34.4 2017-03-25
89 km N of Oklahoma City, United States / pop: 580,000 / local time: 06:05:34.4 2017-03-25
25 km W of Perry, United States / pop: 5,200 / local time: 06:05:34.4 2017-03-25
Read more..

5.2R in PNG!


A 5.2R earthquake was reported this morning in PNG!

Magnitude

Mw 5.2
RegionEASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
Date time2017-03-25 09:07:47.2 UTC
Location5.18 S ; 145.44 E
Depth100 km
Distances509 km N of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 19:07:47.2 2017-03-25
40 km W of Madang, Papua New Guinea / pop: 27,500 / local time: 19:07:47.2 2017-03-25
Read more..

Warning Wellington could split into seven 'islands' if severe earthquake strikes

Wellington could be split into seven separate "islands" if a magnitude 7.5 earthquake strikes the city, town disaster planners have said.
Wellington disaster planners are preparing for the possibility of a split in fears a rupture along the Wellington Falt will cause severe damage to roads and water links.
There are fears a severe quake would leave central, eastern and southern suburbs cut off from the rest of the Welington region.
The seven "islands" wouldn't be separated by water, but infrastructure, main roads, medical assistance and water access could see some suburbs out of action for four months.hey are estimating up to 150 people could lose their lives while another 700 could face serious injury.
Health board members were briefed on the matter and told medical staff would be overwhelmed and working from remote locations would be a possibility if a split occurred.
The "seven islands" description was born from Civil Defence following the magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura quake.
According to GNS Science, the Wellington Fault last ruptured between 170 and 370 years ago and there is a 10 per cent chance it could happen again before the year 2100.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/34790183/warning-wellington-could-split-into-seven-islands-if-severe-earthquake-strikes/#page1
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Japanese Earthquake Simulators Shake You Out Of Complacency

Big earthquakes happen infrequently enough in the Northwest that people can be lulled into complacency. That’s not the case in Japan.
Most large Japanese cities have at least one disaster training center, where people can learn in realistic simulators what to do in an earthquake, typhoon or fire. Leaders from the Pacific Northwest who have seen these centers say it’s a concept worth copying.
Both the Nankai Trough near Tokyo and the Cascadia subduction zone offshore the Pacific Northwest can dish up magnitude 9.0 quakes. Sitting in an earthquake simulator can give you a taste of how terrifying The Big One could be.
Kenji Hode runs a public training center for the Tokyo Fire Department at a neighborhood fire station in Tokyo. He said memorable simulator experiences and regular drills saved lives during the devastating earthquake and tsunami in 2011 in northeastern Japan.
Preparing for a big quake
"If you have no knowledge about the threat of the shake and the earthquake, then once it occurs people will obviously panic,” Hode said. “So therefore by getting knowledge about what the threat would be, and how the shake would be and how to protect your own safety, then you can respond."
Every disaster training center in Japan is a little bit different. There are more than 60 scattered across the country in nearly every large city. They vary from veritable disaster theme parks to interactive museum style or serious education centers.
At Hode's facility, a sturdy table rests on a dining room-sized platform that can be programmed to shake in all directions, mimicking any kind of earthquake. When it was my group's turn in the simulator, the first jolt sent everyone at the table to cower underneath. Then disconcertingly, the table giving us shelter started sliding from the extended, violent shaking. Adding to the realism, a soundtrack of crashing objects and projected pictures from the last big rip.


Visitors to Hode's training center can also practice escaping a smoke-filled building and extinguishing household fires. Another location in Tokyo allows visitors to don foul weather gear and experience a simulated typhoon.
Hode said the Tokyo Fire Department operates three of what it calls Life Safety Learning Centers, all of them free and open to the public. His location in the dense Ikebukuro neighborhood receives 70,000-75,000 visitors per year. Hode estimated about one quarter of the annual total are foreigners, often sent for training by the multinational companies they work for in Tokyo. School groups account for about 60 percent of the annual visitation.
‘Japan cannot escape from earthquakes’
In the city of Kobe, visitors immerse themselves in re-created scenes of an actual earthquake. The magnitude 7.3 quake struck the region in 1995, killing 6,434 people. A tour of Kobe's earthquake museum and disaster reduction institute starts with a widescreen movie that shows buildings collapse, an elevated highway topple, and cars and trains crashing. Strobe lights and a soundtrack loud enough to make the floor rumble heighten the sensory assault. Visitors exit the theater into life size dioramas of the destruction followed by a sobering second film about the aftermath and recovery.
A third theater plays a 3-D documentary short about the March 2011 tsunami which struck the Japanese coastline well north of Kobe.
Retiree Nanami Yoshimoto lived through the Kobe quake, officially known as the Great Hanjin-Awaji Earthquake. She said family friends lost their lives. Even though it happened more than 20 years ago, the images and memories still make her choke up.
"It was so strong,” Yoshimoto said with a trembling voice. “At first, I had a headache. I can't endure watching the old film."
Yoshimoto said as many as 2,000-3,000 students a day from all over Japan pass through this center. She said a desire to pass on hard lessons learned drove her to volunteer as a docent and guide.
"Japan cannot escape from earthquakes, so we have to tell our experience to new generations,” Yoshimoto said
Yoshimoto lingered in a large museum section devoted to preparedness tips. Photos and displays show why it is a good idea to secure furnishings which could tip over and to keep a flashlight and radio near your bed.
Bringing preparedness to the Northwest
Yet another Japanese disaster prevention center wowed Bill Stafford during an international study mission to Fukuoka nearly a decade ago. Stafford directed the Trade Development Alliance of Greater Seattle at the time. He is now retired.
"We look for ideas on these trips that you can borrow -- best practices aren't always in the United States -- and bring home,” Stafford said.
After Stafford saw children dragging their parents on a Sunday to ride Fukuoka's earthquake simulator, practice escaping a smoke filled room and spray a fire extinguisher at a virtual fire, he waxed poetic, or more precisely, quoted the English poet John Keats, "Nothing ever becomes real until it is experienced."
During an interview in Seattle this week, Stafford recalled how Puget Sound movers and shakers quickly raised more than $100,000 for a feasibility study to bring the concept to the Pacific Northwest. The study identified a suitable setting at the Pacific Science Center at Seattle Center.
Stafford said a committee thought an experiential center could be "a terrific national demonstration" of how to motivate people to be better prepared.
"So we started pursuing conversations with the Homeland Security people on this,” he said. “But it just could not get traction with them and also then the 2008 recession hit which dampened things locally."
For now, the closest corollaries in the Northwest include a California-based company that makes and rents out mobile earthquake simulators. The "Big Shaker," as it is called, mimics the first 8-15 seconds of a major earthquake in a trailer kitted out to resemble a living room.
The hydraulically-driven ride traveled to Seattle and the University of Washington-Bothell last October in conjunction with the regional ShakeOut earthquake drill.
"These things are booked solid. We have two of them, one in the Bay Area and one based in Southern California," said Tom Woertz, Northwest regional manager for QuakeHold, the preparedness supplies company that operates the Big Shaker. He said the Big Shaker is tentatively slotted to return again to the Pacific Northwest this coming fall.
Separately, the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry in Portland is currently refurbishing its longstanding "Shake House" display which imparts earthquake info in a playhouse-like structure that rocks.

"It's a mild little rock," OMSI spokesman John Farmer said Thursday. "We're not out to give our guests dizzy spells. Really what we want to do is offer people the opportunity to explore why things happen."



http://spokanepublicradio.org/post/japanese-earthquake-simulators-shake-you-out-complacency
Read more..

Chinese minister visits earthquake-hit Basantapur Durbar Square

KATHMANDU: Chinese Defence Minister and State Councilor, General Chang Wanquan, today visited the Basantapur Durbar Square, a World Heritage site badly damaged in the 2015 earthquake.
On the occasion, General Chang showed his keen interest in the site. He took several photographs and raised several concerns for its timely reconstruction, during the visit.
Following the visit, General Chang shared that he was inspired by the Nepali artecraft.
Chang had arrived Kathmandu this Thursday, on a three-day official visit to Nepal.
He leads  a 19-member delegation at the invitation of Nepali Defence Minister Bal Krishna Khand.

https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/chinese-minister-visits-earthquake-hit-basantapur-durbar-square/
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'It was an ideal place for Māori to occupy'

The human remains, or koiwi tangata, were discovered by an abseiling team working with the Transport Authority just north of Kaikōura.
The bones were found under a rock that, because of its shape, the workers had coincidentally called Tombstone Rock.
The authority's earthquake recovery manager, Steve Mutton, said there was a process to follow after a discovery like this, which included consultation with Ngāi Tahu - the local iwi - and NZ Heritage.
NZTA earthquake recovery manager Steve Mutton.
NZTA earthquake recovery manager Steve Mutton Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King
"We're very aware of the sensitivity from a cultural perspective," Mr Mutton said.
"It's a beautiful coastline - a lot of seafood there, a lot of berries and fruit in the valleys behind the hills so it was an ideal place for Māori to occupy," he said.
Ngāi Tahu said it was the first significant find in years.
Its director for earthquake response and recovery, Robyn Wallace, said there were cultural monitors at the sites and the iwi was working closely with the Transport Authority.
"For Ngāi Tahu ... and Te Rūnanga o Kaikōura as well ... we always anticipated there was a high probability of finding koiwi tangata, or human remains, given that this area saw one of the largest migrations of Ngāi Tahu south."
Any reburial ceremony would be decided by Te Rūnanga o Kaikōura - the iwi's tribal council for Kaikōura, Ms Wallace said.
The work crew would continue to clear eight of the other nice slips they have access to, while the area where the bones were found was examined.
The discovery would not affect the timeline for re-opening the roads and rail, Mr Mutton said.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/327468/%27it-was-an-ideal-place-for-maori-to-occupy%27
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Researchers have dramatically underestimated the risk of earthquakes: Shocking new study finds ruptures travel far further than thought

The main trunk railway line north of Kaikoura, New Zealand after the November 14, 2016 earthquake. The 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck 20km south-east of Hanmer Springs at 12.02am and triggered tsunami warnings for many coastal areas
  • In 2016 New Zealand experienced a deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake 
  • It ripped through the South Island, with the main rupture close to Kaikoura town 
  • Research shows a single rupture can jump across large gaps between segments
  • Segments are discrete areas of faults, tens to hundreds of kilometres long, that typically rupture on their own during large quakes
  • In earthquake scenarios where fault segments link up, there is a bigger area available to rupture, ramping up the quake's energy 
No one could have expected what was to hit New Zealand in 2016. 
The country is certainly no stranger to being shaken up by moving tectonic plates. 
Yet on November 14 2016, it was struck by what may be the most complex rupture ever recorded, overshadowing even the highly destructive sequence of earthquakes that hit Christchurch in 2010 and 2011. 

New research into the event shows we may have to rethink our understanding of how far earthquake ruptures can travel.
Around midnight, without warning, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake ripped through the country's South Island, with the main rupture lying close to the coastal town of Kaikoura. 
As the rupture advanced to the north-east, it left a trail of devastation.
Submerged rocky plateaus beneath the coast rose up from the ocean and became new reefs, suddenly releasing thousands of tonnes of gushing seawater. 
This deafening cascade lasted minutes. 
Houses were sheared from their foundations and deposited into adjacent fields. 
Railway lines were dragged from their beds and re-routed.
Tens of thousands of landslides roared down slopes as mountains, hills, and cliffs could not stand up to the shaking.
Huge volumes of mud, sand, and gravel rushed onto the abyssal plains of the Pacific Ocean. 
Within minutes, a three-metre-high tsunami inundated local coastlines. 
Two people were killed, although far more deaths could have been expected for an event of this size. 
Satellite radar data of the quake – each coloured fringe represents around 12 cm of ground movement 
Satellite radar data of the quake – each coloured fringe represents around 12 cm of ground movement 
This earthquake had everything.
New research, published in the journal Science, used evidence from satellites, ground sensors and field maps to show that the 2016 quake ruptured at least 12 major fault-lines. 
Like dominoes tumbling and crashing against each other, each fault unzipped and shifted blocks of the crust by more than 20 metres, the height of a four-storey building. 
Many quake records also tumbled.
Never before has such a cascading rupture across so many faults been observed in such detail.
ALOS-2 satellite image showing ground displacements from the November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake as colors proportional to the surface motion in two directions. The purple areas in the image moved up and east 13 feet (4 meters)
ALOS-2 satellite image showing ground displacements from the November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake as colors proportional to the surface motion in two directions. The purple areas in the image moved up and east 13 feet (4 meters)
ALOS-2 satellite image showing ground displacements from the November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake as colors proportional to the surface motion in two directions. Purple areas in this image moved north up to 30 feet (9 meters)
ALOS-2 satellite image showing ground displacements from the November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake as colors proportional to the surface motion in two directions. Purple areas in this image moved north up to 30 feet (9 meters)
Dr Ian Hamling, the lead author on the study, is an earthquake scientist based at GNS Science in New Zealand. 
Based in nearby Wellington, Hamling experienced the shaking. 
'I've lived in New Zealand for four years and have felt a few earthquakes,' he told me.
 'I didn't expect this one to be as complex as it was.' 
Within hours, the data coming into GNS told a unique story, leaving Hamling 'stunned'. 
For earthquake scientists around the globe, the events of New Zealand raise key questions. 
Large crack seen on Highway 7 following a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on November 14, 2016 near Hanmer Springs, New Zealand. The 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck 20km south-east of Hanmer Springs at 12.02am and triggered tsunami warnings for many coastal areas
Large crack seen on Highway 7 following a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on November 14, 2016 near Hanmer Springs, New Zealand. The 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck 20km south-east of Hanmer Springs at 12.02am and triggered tsunami warnings for many coastal areas
How often does this type of quake occur and could it happen elsewhere?
The geology of this part of New Zealand is a labyrinth. 
It is the pivot point between two plate boundaries. 
To the north, one tectonic plate dives beneath the other. 
Further south, two plates slide alongside each other, forming the country's Southern Alps. 
As a result, the crust in the Kaikoura region is highly broken up and fractured. 
Similar mazes of fractured rock can be found in many of the world's earthquake-prone regions.
Rescue workers search for survivors through debris on February 22, 2011 in Christchurch, New Zealand. The 6.3 magnitude earthquake - an aftershock of the 7.1 magnitude quake on September 4 - struck 20km southeast of Christchurch at around 1pm local time, with initial reports suggesting damage and fatalities far exceeding the initial quake
Rescue workers search for survivors through debris on February 22, 2011 in Christchurch, New Zealand. The 6.3 magnitude earthquake - an aftershock of the 7.1 magnitude quake on September 4 - struck 20km southeast of Christchurch at around 1pm local time, with initial reports suggesting damage and fatalities far exceeding the initial quake
For areas around the world that host large earthquakes, scientists use a model they call 'segmentation'. 
Segments are discrete areas of faults, tens to hundreds of kilometres long, that typically rupture on their own during large quakes. 

WHAT IS A FAULT LINE? 

A fault is a fracture in the rocks of the Earth's crust.
Compressional or tensional forces can cause displacement of the rocks on the opposite sides of the fracture. 
Faults range in length from a few centimetres for hundreds of kilometres. 
The geographic distribution of faults varies. 
Some large areas have very few, whereas other area can have many fault lines. 
All faults are related to the Earth's tectonic plates moving. 
The biggest faults tend to mark the boundary between two tectonic plates. 
Source: Britannica.com  
his concept comes from recent recordings of seismic shocks and descriptions of ancient quakes in historical records.
When excavating evidence left by past earthquakes, scientists have often assumed geological scars running across multiple segments were caused by separate events. 
The new research into the 2016 quake shows that a single rupture can even jump across large gaps between segments, which do not necessarily need a clear physical connection.
With advances in satellite imaging, scientists are now able to dissect complex quakes. 
The New Zealand quake occurred partly on land, where it could be easily monitored. 
Satellites were poised to detect tiny changes in ground movement, networks of monitoring instruments were in place, and dedicated teams were rapidly deployed to map out the plethora of faults. 
In this case, the complexity of the rupture was clear.
But what if an earthquake were to strike in the remotest parts of the planet, such as in the deserts of central Asia, or below the deepest oceans? 
In isolated areas, complex events may remain undetected and could occur more often than previously assumed.
Maps showing the estimated hazard posed by quakes in different regions are generally based on the assumption of single segment ruptures. 
In earthquake scenarios where fault segments link up, there is a bigger area available to rupture, ramping up the quake's energy.
Magnitude seven quakes become magnitude eight; eights become nines.
Hamling said: 'This event will definitely start to feed into our hazard models.' 


New Zealand is now showing the world that calculations of earthquake hazard need a rethink.
These lessons will also affect early-warning systems for earthquakes. 
These systems rapidly assess the first few seconds of an incoming seismic signal to estimate the degree of shaking when potentially damaging waves arrive. 
Initial seismic waves during the Kaikoura earthquake probably gave no indication that the quake could develop into a magnitude 7.8 rupture due to the domino effect. 
So understanding the cascading process during the New Zealand rupture could improve our abilities to warn whether a quake is destined for 'greatness'.
The Kaikoura quake will likely remain unparalleled for some time. 
Yet as our models better simulate the true complexity of Earth and new observations illuminate hidden parts of the planet, we may find that the 2016 events and the wisdom gained could be overshadowed in the not so distant future.
Coastal uplift at Half Moon Bay, Canterbury caused by the November 2016 earthquake. During the earthquake, huge volumes of mud, sand, and gravel rushed onto the abyssal plains of the Pacific Ocean, and a three-metre-high tsunami inundated local coastlines
Coastal uplift at Half Moon Bay, Canterbury caused by the November 2016 earthquake. During the earthquake, huge volumes of mud, sand, and gravel rushed onto the abyssal plains of the Pacific Ocean, and a three-metre-high tsunami inundated local coastlines
Stephen Hicks, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Seismology, University of Southampton
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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5.0R in Tarapaca, Chile! <---Spot on Prediction!!


This strong 5.0R earthquake arrived this morning in Tarapaca, Chile, has put once more the stamp of confidence in our prediction methods. This earthquake arrived at location (19.86S, 69.04W) while our prediction was at .........Chile, shows a  peak on 26th March. This could  be so but early arrivals are possible at locations  (19.3S, 69.5W), (24.1S, 70.3W) This is a superb prediction considering the accuracy of the data we use. 
 


Magnitude

mb 5.0
RegionTARAPACA, CHILE
Date time2017-03-25 06:59:22.3 UTC
Location19.86 S ; 69.04 W
Depth113 km
Distances384 km S of La Paz, Bolivia, Plurinational State of / pop: 813,000 / local time: 02:59:22.3 2017-03-25
122 km E of Iquique, Chile / pop: 228,000 / local time: 03:59:22.3 2017-03-25
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Friday, March 24, 2017

'Quake-Weather 25th March 2017': A Global Earthquake Review

In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

Using our methods we can deduce that for 25th March 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
March 25th is supposed to be a strong day as far as eartquake activity likely to be of  increased intensity compared to 24th March.   Notable Geocentric Aspects are Sun conjunct Venus, Venus Perigee, Moon conj S Node.
The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

AMERICAS:

  • Ecuador: Seems to be peaking on 26th march but a fair chance there for a small event.Possible places here are (4S, 79W) (5.1S, 79W)
  •  California, . This could show on (39.9N, 124W) 
  • Chile, shows a  peak on 26th March. This could  be so but early arrivals are possible at locations  (19.3S, 69.5W), (24.1S, 70.3W)
  • Oklahoma: Another possible place here is at (35N, 99.9W), (35N, 95.2W)
EUROPE:
  • Greece: No surprise if we see some activity South of Crete (36N, 25E).
  • Italy:(46N, 10.1E), (46N, 7.9E)

ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.

  • Fiji: Fiji should enter a period of increased activity peaking on 24th, so it is of no surprise if we see an early event there. (18.8S, 179E)
  •  Indonesia: Expecting on 24th and as usual early events are possible in this active part of the world. (2S, 121.5E)
  • Japan: Japan enters a period which according to our methods peaks on 26th, but this gradual increase is likely to show a series of events before the 26th. (38.1N, 141E)
  • New Zealand: (40S, 174.8E), (35S, 174.8E)
  • Bangladesh: Possible location (22.96N, 91E)
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3.0R in France


Another great prediction, as we discussed in our recent report, France was due today and this is small by other countries but normal for France. This 3.0R came in at (47.2N, 2.4W). The predicted location was (45.9N, 1W ) .  Not bad!

Magnitude

ML 3.0
RegionFRANCE
Date time2017-03-24 15:55:39.8 UTC
Location47.25 N ; 2.43 W
Depth1 km
Distances217 km S of Saint Helier, Jersey / pop: 28,000 / local time: 15:55:39.8 2017-03-24
66 km W of Nantes, France / pop: 278,000 / local time: 16:55:39.8 2017-03-24
2 km S of Le Pouliguen, France / pop: 5,500 / local time: 16:55:39.8 2017-03-24
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