Wednesday, July 26, 2017

The Moon Today


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Which fault ruptured in the M=6.6 Kos-Bodrum earthquake?


Last week, there were large earthquakes along the Greece-Turkey border near the tourist hotspots of Kos and Bodrum, and just north of the Commander Islands on the Aleutian Arc. Now that several days have passed, we have been able to further analyze these quakes and their aftershock sequences, in order to better understand the dynamics of these earthquakes.
In the five days since the M=6.6 Kos-Bodrum earthquake, there have been approximately 400 M=2+ aftershocks. Based on the magnitude of the mainshock, this quake likely had a rupture length of 20 km. In the figure below, we show how the aftershock sequence looked mere hours after the earthquake, four days later, and coulomb stress changes associated with the mainshock. This figure highlights several earthquake characteristics. First, when the top two panels are compared, one can see that while the top figure does not contain many aftershocks, it does an excellent job encompassing the future aftershock zone shown in panel two, where the area just filled in.
greece-earthquake-map-turkey-earthquake-map
From top to bottom, this figure shows, aftershocks approximately 
1.5 hours after the M=6.6 mainshock, aftershocks in the 3.5 days after 
the mainshock, and coulomb stress changes imparted by the mainshock. 
What is important to note is that the aftershocks in the 1.5 hours after the 
mainshock did a very good job encompassing the area of future aftershocks. 
Additionally, the barbell shape seen in the coulomb figure is accurately represented 
in the actual aftershocks seen.
 
It is also important to note that this aftershock sequence has a rough barbell shape, which matches the coulomb stress changes imparted by the mainshock. It should be pointed out that the coulomb calculation assumes a compact source and that the earthquake occurred on a north-dipping structure, possibly an extension of the Datca Fault. Initially, we stated that the Gokova Fault was the likely culprit, but because the aftershock sequence aligned better with the strike of the north-dipping structure, it was chosen for coulomb. However, there is still great uncertainty as to which fault ruptured. Nonetheless, this could help explain why there was more damage reported in Kos, as the fault is closer to Greece, and the earthquake would have ruptured towards Kos. However, discrepancies in damage could also be due to a variety of other factors.
 
A second look at the M=7.7 Commander Islands earthquake
In the Commander Islands, along the western extent of the Aleutian Arc, we can now say that the M=7.7 earthquake a little over a week ago likely ruptured the Bering Fault Zone, a right-lateral strike-slip system separating the Aleutian Ridge from the Commander Basin (Gaedicke et al., 2000). This fault zone is part of the larger Komandorsky fracture system, which comprises the North American-Pacific plate boundary. Based on the lack of many large historic earthquakes, the Bering Fault Zone was thought to have a lower seismic potential than the fault zones to the south, Pikezh, Steller, and Aleutian, which are believed to take up the majority of displacement along the plate boundary.
Commander Is M=7.7 as of 23 Jul
This Temblor map shows the location of the M=7.7 earthquake along the Commander Islands on the western extent of the Aleutian Arc. We now know that this earthquake likely occurred on the Bering Fault Zone, which is part of the Komandorsky fracture system.
 
In the week since the mainshock, there have been 46 M=4+ aftershocks, the largest of which was a M=5.3, stretching for a distance of over 600 km. While the aftershock sequence from the Kos-Bodrum earthquake just became more dense, along the Commander Islands, it not only became more dense but lengthened by about 10-15%. This suggests very strong end lobes of stress. Gavin Hayes of the USGS is also producing an updated Finite Fault model today, and when that comes out we will know more about this earthquake and will update this post.
 
References
European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC)
USGS
Christoph Gaedicke, Boris Baranov, Nokolay Seliverstov, Dmitry Alexeiev, Nikolay Tsukanov, and Ralf Freitag, Structure of an active arc-continent collision area: the Aleutian-Kamchatka junction, Tectonophysics 325 (2000) 63-85
Huseyin Tur, Cenk Yaltırak, Irem Elitez, Kerim Tuncer Sarıkavak, Pliocene-Quaternary tectonic evolution of the Gulf of Gokova, southwest Turkey, Tectonophysics 638 (2015) 158-176

SOURCE:http://temblor.net/earthquake-insights/which-fault-ruptured-in-the-m6-6-kos-bodrum-earthquake-4693/
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Tuesday, July 25, 2017

'Quake-Weather 27th July 2017': A Global Earthquake Review.

In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.
Using our methods we can deduce that for 27th July 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
Geocentically: We have the following aspects coming up tomorrow 27th July. SATURN Greatet Northern Declination, Mercury semi-square Jupiter,
Heliocentrically: Mercury Trine Black Moon



The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

  • Peru (16.2S, 73.3W)
  • Ecuador (4.4S, 81.5W)
  • California  (40.2N, 124.4W), (37.3N, 121.4W)
EUROPE
  • Turkey (40.2N, 31.3E)
  • Bosphorus  (43.3N, 31.3E)
    AFRICA: 
    • S. Africa  (25.2S, 25.2E) 

     ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.
    • Kamchatka (52.3N, 157.3E)
    • Indonesia (4.4S, 121.4E)
    • Philippines (16.3N, 121.3E),  (7.3N, 124.4E)
    • Tonga (22.2S, 175.3W)
    • Afghanistan (31.2N, 63.4E)

    You can read about our methodology here.

    Disclaimer

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    'Quake-Weather 26th July 2017': A Global Earthquake Review.

    In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

    Using our methods we can deduce that for 26th July 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

    GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
    Geocentically: We have the following aspects coming up tomorrow 26th July. Earth-Sun Mars Conjunction, Venus sextile Node.
    Heliocentrically: The new aspect is Mars-Sun_Earth alignment.

    The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

    AMERICAS:
    • Chile (38.1S, 73.4W)
    • California  (41.2N, 123.4W), (37.3N, 123.4W)
    • Ecuador ( 3.4S, 79W)
    EUROPE
    • Italy (41.2N, 16.2E), (43.4N, 13.4E)
    • Romania (46.2N, 23.1E, 26.2E)
    • Turkey (41.2N, 33.4E, 31.2E)(41.2N, 41.2E)
      AFRICA:

       ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.
      • China (31.2N, 116.2E)
      • Japan (38.1N, 141.4E), (33.4N, 131.2E)
      • Kamchatka (58.3N, 163.3E), (51.4N, 156.4E)
      • N. Zealand (41.2S, 38.1S, 176.2E)
      • PNG  (3.4S, 153.3E)
      • Philippines (16.3N, 121.3E, 123.4E), (13.4N, 123.4E)
      • Taiwan (23.2 N, 26.2N, 121.3E) ***
      • Vanuatu (16.3S, 166E)
      • Tonga (23.2S, 176.3W)
      • Afghanistan (31.2N, 63.4E)
      • Pakistan (31.2N, 73.4E)

      You can read about our methodology here.

      Disclaimer

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      Unprecedented deluge in Burma: 100,000 evacuated, water level in rivers several feet above danger level, temples flooded

      Heavy rains and floods have forced thousands of people to leave from their homes to relief camps in Irrawaddy Region of Burma.

      The water level of the Irrawaddy River is several feet above its danger level flooding villages and temples along its banks.

      The situation is under control, but what happens now will depend on the weather,” Ko Ko Naing, director general of the Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, told Reuters.
      Flooding across large parts of Burma has displaced more than 100,000 people, causing two deaths, while dramatic riverbank erosion has washed away a Buddhist pagoda, officials, residents and state media said on Monday.
      burma floods july 2017, burma floods temple july 2017 video, Severe floods in Burma in July 2017, Severe floods in Burma in July 2017 video
      Severe floods in Burma in July 2017
      Water levels have risen steadily since unrelenting monsoon rain began to lash the heart of the Southeast Asian country in early July, driving some people to higher land or seek shelter in Buddhist monasteries, a disaster relief official said.
      One man drowned in the floods in the Sagaing region and another was swept away while crossing a stream in Chin State.
      burma floods july 2017, burma floods temple july 2017 video, Severe floods in Burma in July 2017, Severe floods in Burma in July 2017 video
      2 dead and 100000 displaced after apocalyptical floods in Burma.
      On Saturday, images of the Buddha’s footprint that draw pilgrims to a pagoda in Magwe Division were submerged by the rising waters, although no damage was immediately apparent. A small dam also collapsed in Pegu Division.

      In Rakhine State, roads and residential areas in Ann and Taungup townships were inundated with water up to five feet in some places as of Sunday.
      burma floods july 2017, burma floods temple july 2017 video, Severe floods in Burma in July 2017, Severe floods in Burma in July 2017 video
      Severe flooding in Burma
      Video provided to Reuters by a Buddhist monk near Pakokku, 520 km (323 miles) north of the commercial hub of Rangoon, showed a gold-leaf-covered pagoda slipping into the raging waters of the Irrawaddy River on Thursday.

      Some riverside villages have been washed away entirely. The villagers are now scared to live here. The flooding has now decreased, but erosion continues. A meteorologist has warned of possible upcoming torrential rains in Myanmar due to a strong monsoon in the Bay of Bengal.

       SOURCE: ¨http://strangesounds.org/2017/07/burma-floods-temple-flooded-video-pictures-july-2017.html

       

       

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      Two strong eruptions of Sheveluch and Klyuchevskoy rattle Kamchatka, Russia

      Two volcanoes – Sheveluch and Klyuchevskoy – erupted strongly within 12 hours in Kamchatka, Russia.

      After the Sheveluch volcano sent a plume of ash and gas 12 km in the air on July 23rd, Klyuchevskaya Sopka set itself on fire on 24th ejecting ash 5.5 km above its summit.

      video

      The Sheveluch volcano exploded on July 23, 2017 at 17:40 UTC rumbling for over 480 minutes. The plume of ash and gas rose 11,500-12,000 meters above sea level while strong pyroclastic flows came down the hillslopes.Sheveluch eruption kamchatka july 24 2017, Sheveluch eruption kamchatka july 24 2017 video 

       

      Ash drifted in the ENE direction over 205 km, towards the Gulf of Ozernaya, bypassing populated areas.
      Red aviation alert was issued for a short time before returning to orange a ew minutes later. Tourist organizations are advised not to drive towers in the volcano area.
      Sheveluch eruption kamchatka july 24 2017, Sheveluch eruption kamchatka july 24 2017 video

       

      On July 24, 2017, the Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted aout 12 hours after the Sheveluch’s explosion, sending ash 5.5 kilometers above sea level. The episode lasted 300 minutes.

      Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017, Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017 photo, Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017 video
      Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017. via Twitter
      The ash plume spread 45 kilometers east-north-east of the volcano toward the Ozernaya Bay. There are no settlements in this direction. No ashfall in the villages of the Ust-Kamchatka region has reported.

      Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017, Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017 photo, Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017 video
      Klyuchevskoy eruption july 24 2017 picture. via Twitter
      The volcano is under an orange (elevated) aviation hazard code. Tourist organizations are advised not to conduct tours in the area of the volcano.

      SOURCE: http://strangesounds.org/2017/07/two-strong-eruptions-rattle-kamchatka-video-pictures-sheveluch-klyuchevskoy.html

       

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      Extreme rain: 108 mm (4.27 inches) within 1 hour floods Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

      Weather station located at Harrisburg International Airport in Middletown, Pennsylvania recorded a staggering 108 mm (4.27 inches) of rain within just one hour on Sunday, July 23, 2017. NWS reported visibility dropped to 800 m (0.5 miles) during the storm. Neighboring states across the Northeast are also experiencing extremely heavy rain and high water is threatening many homes.
      Within just 10 minutes, the same weather station recorded over 25.9 mm (1.02 inches) of rain, between 18:15 and 18:25 EDT Sunday. 108 mm (4.27 inches) of rain fell down between 18:00 and 19:00 EDT.
      Although this heavy rain was extremely localized, the amount shattered city's records for the date and ranked as one of the top five daily rain totals ever recorded in the Harrisburg area, Matthew Cappucci of Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang said.
      Meteorologist Alex Lamers said this was an exceptional rain rate for Harrisburg. "On average in a given year, the city has just 0.1% of receiving ~89 mm (~3.5 inches) of rain in an hour," Lamers said.
      "It was definitely impressive," said Paul Head, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in State College, Pennsylvania. "We got a report up north in Montour County from the city of Danville where a resident saw nearly 152.4 mm (6 inches)."
      "All of a sudden it was just downpouring and within 10 minutes the streets were flooded," eyewitness Crystal Holley told Fox 43. "You couldn’t go nowhere, at all. It came and flooded everyone’s basements, everyone’s houses. It was a mess."
      Another 14.5 mm (0.57 inches) fell over night Sunday into Monday.


      While Pennsylvania continues to be doused in persistent, heavy rain, and water rescues are underway, neighboring states are experiencing pretty much the same and high water is threatening homes across the region.



      According to AccuWeather, 24-hour totals in the Northeast are reaching extreme levels. Winterthur, Delaware, reported 187.9 mm (7.44 inches) of rain as of 16:00 EDT Monday. Ship Bottom, New Jersey, in Ocean County reported 110.5 mm (4.35 inches) in a day, with as much as 39.8 mm (1.57 inches) falling over the course of an hour.

      SOURCE: https://watchers.news/2017/07/24/extreme-rain-flood-harrisburg-pennsylvania-july-2017/
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      Earth Likes Schumann's Music


      Schumann Resonances seem to be triggered again! Not as sharp this time but strong enough!. Lets see if we have some activity later on tonight.
      [Note: The Schumann resonances (SR) are a set of spectrum peaks in the extremely low frequency (ELF) portion of the Earth's electromagnetic field spectrum. Schumann resonances are global electromagnetic resonances, generated and excited by lightning discharges in the cavity formed by the Earth's surface and the ionosphere.]

      Be Safe Be Good!


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      Rare Planetary Alignments Today 25th July 2017.


      We have created this solar system chart for today's planets and we show you the heliocentric view of the planets today. We see tight alignments between
      • Uranus-Venus-Sun-Jupiter  (Mercury is not aligned really although some include it)
      • Earth-Sun-Mars and the less wel known
      • Ceres-Sun-Saturn
      The last time these planets were in tight alignment which is visible diagonally from Earth in the sky, was 29th october 1910,  over 100 years back. Similar alignments we had in 1915, 1955 and 1966.

      I will leave it to you to see if those dates were significant enough or not.
      Be Safe, Be Good!






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      5.0R near Tonga! <--Spot on



      A strong 5.0R earthquake was registered this morning in the Tonga Region. Our coordinates were Tonga (22.3S, 177.2E) and the actual as per below (24.1N, 176.5W)

      Magnitude

      mb 5.0
      RegionSOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
      Date time2017-07-25 01:11:33.8 UTC
      Location24.14 S ; 176.51 W
      Depth57 km
      Distances359 km S of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 14:11:33.8 2017-07-25
      350 km SW of ‘Ohonua, Tonga / pop: 1,300 / local time: 14:11:33.8 2017-07-25
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      Monday, July 24, 2017

      Philippines: Two precursor animations.

      clouds over Philippines during 10-7-17 to 24-7-17

      Below the OLR anomalies over the last few days.



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      Taiwan: Daily Two precursors (Animations)

      Clouds over Taiwan from 10th July to 24th July.

      Below is the OLR anomalies over Taiwan over the last few days.





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      'Quake-Weather 25th July 2017': A Global Earthquake Review.


      In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

      Using our methods we can deduce that for 25th July 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

      GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
      Geocentically: We have the following aspects coming up tomorrow 25th July. Moon conjunct Node, Moon conjunct Mercury and finally Vesta.
      Heliocentrically: The new aspect is Mars-Sun_Earth alignment.

      The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

      AMERICAS:
      • Chile (36.6S, 73.3W)
      • Mexico (23N, 106W) (16N, 96W) weaker peak on 24th.
      • Peru (16.4S, 73.1W)  26th is peak
      • California  (37.3N, 121.4W)
      • British Columbia (53N, 126.3W) 
      • Alaska (58.3N, 148.3W)
      • Ecuador ( 0, 76W)
      • Oklahoma (37.3N, 36.3N, 96.3W)
      EUROPE
      • Italy (43N, 13E)
      • Romania (46N, 28E)
        AFRICA:

         ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.
        • Iran (31.8N, 58.3E)
        • Japan (37.3N, 142.3E)
        • Kamchatka (58.3N, 163.3E)
        • N. Zealand (43.4S, 37.3S, 168E)
        • SOlomon Is. (6.3S, 156.4E) (13.3S, 163.3E)
        • Philippines (16.3N, 121.3E) 
        • Taiwan (23.2 N, 121.3E) ***
        • Vanuatu (16.3S, 166E)
        • Tonga (23.2S, 173.3W)
        • NEPAL (27.3N, 83.2E)

        You can read about our methodology here.

        Disclaimer

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        4.0R in NEPAL!

        A small 4.0R earthquake came in this morning some 30km East of Kathmandu, in Nepal.
        Our calculations came up with the following diagram, explaining tht a pop up situation was being set up and it seems it did. The good thing is this was very weak event. Be Safe Be Good!




        Magnitude

        ML 4.0
        RegionNEPAL
        Date time2017-07-24 04:44:30.0 UTC
        Location27.56 N ; 85.96 E
        Depth10 km
        Distances65 km E of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,443,000 / local time: 10:29:30.0 2017-07-24
        44 km S of Kodāri, Nepal / pop: 1,600 / local time: 10:29:30.0 2017-07-24
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        4.4R in the Gulf of California <--Spot on



        Very early this morning there was a 4.4R in the Gulf of Mexico as shown in the map above. We have been expecting this event and it came 30 minutes later. Our cordinates were  (25.5N, 110.3W) just very good.

        Magnitude

        M 4.4
        RegionGULF OF CALIFORNIA
        Date time2017-07-24 00:27:20.0 UTC
        Location24.89 N ; 109.35 W
        Depth10 km
        Distances775 km NW of Guadalajara, Mexico / pop: 1,641,000 / local time: 19:27:20.0 2017-07-23
        125 km NE of La Paz, Mexico / pop: 172,000 / local time: 18:27:20.0 2017-07-23
        84 km S of Topolobampo, Mexico / pop: 7,600 / local time: 18:27:20.0 2017-07-23
        Read more..

        Sunday, July 23, 2017

        5.2R in E. Iran <--Spot on!


        A 5.2R earthquake came just in 67km off Kerman in Iran. We predicted this and expected it today.


        Magnitude

        Mw 5.2
        RegionEASTERN IRAN
        Date time2017-07-23 17:32:18.4 UTC
        Location30.10 N ; 57.74 E
        Depth49 km
        Distances506 km E of Shīrāz, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 1,250,000 / local time: 22:02:18.4 2017-07-23
        67 km E of Kermān, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 578,000 / local time: 22:02:18.4 2017-07-23
        Read more..

        5.7R in Japan!


        A 5.7R event has just been reported in Japan! Spot on
        Did we get this right? See previous posts!



        Magnitude

        Mw 5.7
        RegionOFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
        Date time2017-07-23 15:35:42.2 UTC
        Location40.18 N ; 143.26 E
        Depth10 km
        Distances296 km NE of Sendai-shi, Japan / pop: 1,038,000 / local time: 00:35:42.2 2017-07-24
        188 km E of Morioka-shi, Japan / pop: 296,000 / local time: 00:35:42.2 2017-07-24
        127 km NE of Miyako, Japan / pop: 51,800 / local time: 00:35:42.2 2017-07-24
        Read more..

        Iran: Soon to be Activated

        Clouds over Iran since 10th July.
        IRAN OLR anomaly data is hsown below over the last few days.


        Read more..

        Med. Region Activity






        Read more..

        Japan: Two Precursor animation

        Expecting in Japan on 24-25th July, hence lets look at two easy to use precursors.
        1)Daily Clouds over Japan from 10th July to 21st July 2017.
        2) Below we see the OLR anomalies for the last few days over Japan.

        This year's earthquake activity for Japan is shown below, (>5R)





        Read more..

        Med.Region, Two Precursor Animations

        4 day animation of OLR anomalies of the Med Region below.

        Below we see the clouds indicator daily from 10th July to 21st July for the Med Region.
        I will not interpret it, I think most by now can see through it.









        Read more..

        PLANETS TODAY, 23rd July 2017.

        NEW MOON Today and at Max Declination, as shown in a post yesterday, we can just see the Moon in the above chart between Earth and the Sun, aligned to Mars. The other aspects are shown also for clarity. Make the most of it today, Be Safe Be Good!

        Read more..