Monday, January 16, 2017

Which Country Today? (17th January 2017)

Today, Geocentrically, Mercury Trines the Node, Moon Squares Saturn. Using our methods we can deduce that for tomorrow, 17th January 2017 we have the following countries/regions of vulnerability for strong earthquake event.

  • Japan  (35.2N, 140.2E), (39.1N,141.3E) (39.4N, 142.4E) ( 35.5N,140.5E)
  • Mexico (24.3N,112.2W, 111.4W)
  • New Zealand (39.24S, 174.6E) (35.4S, 174.6E)
  • Oklahoma peaks tomorrow, but could come with (35.3N,97.8W) or (35.3N,95.3W)
  • Pakistan/Afghanisan (35.3N, 66.3E, 73.3E)
  • Tonga (8.04N,174.5W)
  • Vanuatu, possbly (22.8N,172E)
  • Philippines (5.38N,125.38E)


 You can read our methodology here.

Disclaimer
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PERU: Earthquake Predictions for January 2017!

It is the first time to our knowledge that a published research-based technique is used as a systematic predicting tool for earthquakes. Our methods are experimental hence we test them in real time and we will be publishing our predictions regularly. Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day. 
In the following diagram we can see PERU Earthquake predictions for January 2017.
For this period we observe in the following diagram that there is a HIGH* probability to have an earthquake >4R in PERU on 7th 14th 18th 27th January 2017 Other dates of smaller probability are shown on the map.
 The probability Scales are as follows: *SMALL (<40%) MEDIUM (40-60%) and HIGH (>60%)








For more details


You can read our methodology here
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Romania: Earthquake Predictions for January 2017

It is the first time to our knowledge that a published research-based technique is used as a systematic predicting tool for earthquakes. Our methods are experimental hence we test them in real time and we will be publishing our predictions regularly. Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the peak dates in the charts

In the following diagram we can see Romania Earthquake predictions for the period of
January 2017.
For this period we observe that there is a Small-Medium* probability to have an earthquake >4R in the region of Romania. The only blips are on 10th-11th, 16th-17th January 2017, according to our methods.
 
Note that the data are sparse for Romania and the accuracy here is not as good as we wish for.

The probability Scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%) MEDIUM (40-60%) and HIGH (>60%)







You can read our methodology here.

Disclaimer
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5.5R in Sumatra, Indonesia!

A 5.5R in Sumatra has just been reported as shown on the map. It is 19km from Binjai.

Magnitude

mb 5.5
RegionNORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Date time2017-01-16 12:42:12.3 UTC
Location3.43 N ; 98.44 E
Depth10 km
Distances30 km SW of Medan, Indonesia / pop: 1,751,000 / local time: 19:42:12.3 2017-01-16
19 km S of Binjai, Indonesia / pop: 229,000 / local time: 19:42:12.3 2017-01-16
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SWC to investigate Nepal Red Cross activities

KATHMANDU, Jan 14: The Social Welfare Council has said that it will investigate into the Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS)'s reconstruction and rehabilitation-related activities after the humanitarian organization was found spending millions meant for earthquake victims on administrative activities and the purchase of various luxury items. 
The council's vice-chairman, Nilmani Baral, said reports about NRCS's irregularities in earthquake reconstruction-related activities have drawn the council's attention and that the council will investigate the matter immediately and find out the reality.  
“We are concerned about the reports that have appeared in the media regarding the Nepal Red Cross. We will hold an in-depth investigation into the issue and find out whether those allegations are true or not,” Baral told Republica.  
He said that the council has formed a committee to monitor and study the NRCS activities being carried out in various parts of the country. “So, the committee under the council has already asked the organization to submit all the documents related to its activities to the council and they have agreed to cooperate with us. The committee will carry out investigation into the reported possible irregularities in the reconstruction and rehabilitation activities run by NRCS in the earthquake-hit districts and find out the reality,” he added. 
According to him, the committee will begin its study and investigation into the NRCS activities soon.  "We have planned to begin montioring in a district in each of the five development regions as soon as possible in the first phase," 
Documents obtained by Republica show that NRCS has already spent Rs 245 million given by various donors for the reconstruction activities on salaries and allowances for its officials, foreign trips, a sophisticated office, and the purchase of items like cars, motorbikes, scooters, computers, pen drives and other accessories.
The documents show that NRCS has already spent Rs 62.3 million on salaries, honorariums for steering committee meetings and allowances, purchased 200 motorbikes and scooters worth more than Rs 61 million, cars worth more than 49 million and over 200 laptops worth Rs 25.7 million, among other expenses. 
Earlier, Republica had found the NRCS spending more than Rs 7 million on a lavish meeting at a fancy hotel in Chitwan.
As per an advertisement published by NRCS on various media outlets on Friday, the organization has stated that it has spent Rs 2.195 billion in the last nineteen months since the devastating earthquakes. However, it has constructed only 118 earthquake victims houses, 4 health posts and 1 hospital even after over 19 months since the disaster as part of its earthquake response operation so far. It has stated that it constructed 280 latrines while 826 latrines are under construction. It has stated that it trained 68 engineers and sub-engineers and 4,053 masons on safe construction and building code compliance as part of its earthquake response operation so far. Similarly, it has stated that it has distributed Rs 291.75 million to 5,835 families whose houses were damaged by the 2015 earthquake as first tranche of Rs 50,000, among other reconstruction activities.   
However, the NRCS has mentioned nothing about its administrative expenses in the advertisement.  


http://www.myrepublica.com/news/13054
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Nepal Red Cross spends millions from quake funds on 'luxuries'

200 motorbikes and scooters worth more than Rs 61 million, cars worth more than 49 million, 25.7* million in laptops, 62.3* million for salaries 
KATHMANDU, Jan 11: Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS) has been found splurging millions meant for earthquake victims on administrative activities and the purchase of  various luxury items instead of channelizing the hefty amounts  into the real tasks of earthquake reconstruction and rehabilitation.  
Documents obtained by Republica show that NRCS has already spent Rs 245 million given by various donors for reconstruction activities on salaries and allowances for its officials, foreign trips, the setting up of a sophisticated office, and the purchase of items like cars, motorbikes, scooters, computers, pen drives and other accessories.

The documents show that NRCS has already spent Rs 62.3 million on salaries, honoriums for steering committee meetings and allowances. Sources say Nepal Red Cross spent much more than stated on a number of meetings and purchases. 
The humanitarian organization has been found paying hefty amounts and without any fixed criteria to its office bearers and staff working for its Emergency Response Operation (ERO) unit. The unit runs various post-earthquake projects in the 14 most quake-affected districts.   
Chairman of NRCS Sanjeev Thapa has been receiving Rs 125,000 as a monthly salary since the last one and half years while General Secretary Dev Ratna Dhakwa has been receiving Rs 98,349 per month and Treasurer Devendra Bahadur Pradhan Rs 63,249.

Interestingly, NRCS has been paying Rs 40,000 to Bhatka Khawas, a member of NRCS's high powered committee formed to oversee reconstruction activities of the ERO unit, as a monthly salary even though he has been living in Canada for the last few months, according to a highly placed source at NRCS.  
Likewise, other staff working for the unit at the central and district levels have also been receiving unusually high salaries. A program manager receives up to Rs 121,500 monthly while project coordinators are receiving Rs 101,500. The staffers have also been given Dashain and other allowances. Around 70 staffers are working at the central level of the ERO unit while more than five staffers have been deployed at the district levels.  
“Firstly, there is no salary standard for staffers in the unit and the monthly salaries are unusually high. NRCS officer bearers have been giving  out salaries arbitrarily as a majority of the staff are related to them one way or other,” an  NRCS official told Republic seeking anonymity, adding, “Chairman Thapa and other officer bearers have hired relatives to the unit.” 
Salary details obtained by Republica show that there is a discrepancy in salary among officials in the unit working in the same position.  
Likewise, the documents also show that Chairman Thapa has received Rs 250,000 as pocket money for his Geneva visit and Rs 72,735 for a visit to Thailand, among others.

Similarly, NRCS has been found spenting Rs 49,084,100 for the purchase of cars, spare parts and insurance and also for hiring cars and vans during district visits by office bearers from the capital. The documents show that NRCS purchased over 10 cars. NRCS has purchased cars worth up to Rs 6,080,000. The documents shows that NRCS purchased two cars worth Rs 56,75,000, four cars worth Rs 3,395,000, 1 car worth Rs 3,065,000 and another worth Rs 1,065,000. 
Similarly, NRCS has purchased over 200 motorbikes and scooters worth Rs 61,251,281 and Rs 429,219 worlth  of bicycles, and  Rs 36,285,589 for purchasing trucks. The documents show that the humanitarian organization has purchased motorbikes worth up to Rs 480,000 for staffers. 
NRCS has also spent Rs 25,766,138 for laptop computers, Rs 4,032,122 for desktop computers, Rs 3,583,550 for computer printers and Rs 373,816 for flash drivers, pen drives and power backups. 
Similarly, NRCS has spent Rs 998,338 for purchasing multimedia optima projectors, Rs 423,217 for overhead projectors and Rs 209,744 for various computer accessories.
“A huge amount of money issued in the name of NRCS is being spent on salaries and various luxurious items. Facilitates and salaries given to staffers overseeing reconstruction are no less than for I/NGOs officials. It is unfortunate that the office bearers are taking money meant for quake affected victims,” an official said. 
The official said that various donors have provided Rs 9 billion to NRCS for reconstruction and rehabilitation activities. “There hasn't been any real work on the ground. Red Cross is busy buying expensive items for its headquarters in Kathmandu,” said a highly placed official source. 
Earlier, Republica had found Nepal Red Cross spending more than Rs. 7 million for a lavish meeting at a fancy hotel in Chitwan. 
*Corrected

 http://www.myrepublica.com/news/12891
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Earthquake Safety Day marked amid growing fears of quake


Rss Students display placards at Sankhu on the occasion of the 19th Earthquake Safety Day on Sunday.

Govt backtracks from its earlier commitment on imposing strict building code

KATHMANDU, Jan 16: With memories of pain and devastations caused by the 2015 earthquakes still fresh in the minds of the people, Nepal marked the 19th Earthquake Safety Day on Sunday and resolved to be better prepared to cope with such disasters in the coming days.

The day is observed every year on Magh 2 as per the Bikram Sambat calendar to mark the great earthquake of Nepal in 1934, which had killed around 8,000 people. The Earthquake Safety Day this year commemorates the 82nd anniversary of the quake.

With the slogan 'Earthquake Resistant Buildings and Infrastructures for Community Resilience,' the day was observed nationwide to 'reaffirm the national commitment toward saving lives and lessening potential losses from future earthquakes' as well as to form strategies for Earthquake Risk Management. Awareness rallies were organized in all 75 districts to raise awareness about the risks of earthquakes and safety measures.

However, merely celebrating Earthquake Safety Day will not make the country safe from earthquakes, said the participants. The day was marked even before the Gorkha earthquake of 2015, yet the quake's aftermath turned out to be quite deadly. The recent quake alone had claimed about 9,000 lives and injured at least 22,000.

Immediately after the devastation in 2015, the government had indicated to take stern measures to minimize loss of lives and properties. It had temporarily banned construction of houses above two stories along with other tougher provisions for building construction. The government, however, has now backtracked from enforcing the strict provisions.

Asked about the government's failure to enforce tougher provisions while constructing new buildings, Gopi Krishna Khanal, joint-secretary at the Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local Development, admitted that the government has now allowed construction of buildings above two stories provided that the house owners can ensure 30 percent of open space around the premises of their house.

As a part of ensuring safer construction of buildings, the ministry has instructed all 217 municipalities to implement the building by-laws introduced after the earthquake. The by-laws mandate the local authorities not to approve housing designs unless they have 30 percent of open space and walls not more than 4 feet tall.  
"The main reason for such large extent of causalities is because the building code introduced in 2002 was not implemented effectively," added Khanal, claiming that about 95 percent of lives would have been saved in the recent earthquake if the building code was strictly followed.

Krishna Bahadur Raut, disaster focal person and joint secretary at the Ministry of Home Affairs, stressed the need of staying vigilant to reduce the risks of disaster.

Nepal ranks 11th in the world in terms of earthquake risk and witnesses minor and major earthquakes on regular intervals. Seismological studies have clearly indicated that the entire country, especially along the major active faults in east-west alignment, is prone to the disaster. The country lies in the active seismic zone V (very severe intensity zone).

Currently, the country follows the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030), which aims to achieve 'substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries.'

http://www.myrepublica.com/news/13155
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Free healthcare services to Nepal quake survivors

Kathmandu, Jan 16 (IANS) Nepal's Health Ministry and the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) will conduct free healthcare programmes for the 2015 earthquake survivors.
A meeting between NRA Chief Executive Officer Govindaraj Pokharel and Health Secretary Senendraraj Upreti on Sunday decided to run the free programmes in the quake-hit districts, The Kathmandu Post reported on Monday.
Coordination would be made with the Institute of Medicine (IoM), Kathmandu University, National Academy of Medical Sciences and Patan Academy of Health Sciences to deploy specialists in the health camps, Pokharel said.
The quake that jolted Nepal on April 25, 2015 killed about 9,000 people.
The worst hit districts included Rasuwa, Sindhupalchowk, Gorkha, Dolakha and Dhading.

http://ianslive.in/index.php?param=news/Free_healthcare_services_to_Nepal_quake_survivors-539189/INTERNATIONAL/13
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Inspired by Nepalese, UK architect rebuilds ancient temple

In this Nov. 22, 2016 photo, a Nepalese policeman rests in front of Changu Narayan, a temple dedicated to Lord Vishnu, at Changu Village, 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) east of Kathmandu, Nepal. Less than two years after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake damaged the 5th century temple, the community is cleaning up their World Heritage site themselves and British architect John Sanday, who led the World Monuments Fund restoration of Cambodia’s Angkor Wat, has taken on the recovery as his pet project. Changu Narayan is architect John Sanday, who led the World Monuments Fund restoration of Cambodia’s Angkor Wat, has taken on the recovery as his pet project. Changu Narayan is believed to be the oldest Hindu place of worship in the country

CHANGU NARAYAN, Nepal (AP) — When a 7.8 magnitude earthquake rocked Nepal last year, villagers in Changu Narayan ran up the steep rocky path that cuts through their town to their renowned temple. Seeing the piles of rubble, they figured their lives were over.

Less than two years later, the community is cleaning up their World Heritage Site themselves, and one of the world's leading architects has taken on the recovery as his pet project.

"I see now our world coming back alive," said Gyan Bahadur Bhadal, 61, one of many villagers who share responsibility for the temple's upkeep.

In a country where locals say there are more gods than people and more temples than houses, Changu Narayan still manages to stand out among the ancient holy places. It's believed to be the oldest Hindu place of worship in the country, its wooden walls intricately carved with hundreds of deities, perched atop a steep hill overlooking the Kathmandu Valley.

The 5th century temple is dedicated to Lord Vishnu, who locals say appeared there once. His image, in about a dozen incarnations, is carved into struts that hold up the roof. Stone lions with eagle heads guard the doors. Inside has long been a mystery: Only priests enter the two-tiered pagoda, and they don't explore.

An April 2015 temblor that killed 9,000 people in Nepal also damaged details in Changu Narayan's wood, stone and metal. A sharp aftershock one day later twisted the entire structure, knocking piles of bricks out of the walls, filling the courtyard.

Anish Bhatta's family has been living and leading worship at the temple for 10 generations — some 325 years. After the earthquake, Anish did the unthinkable: He went all the way inside.

"We saw things we never imagined," he said. "Statues as big as me, swords, so many sculptures, gold plated with big gems."

Today the temple is guarded by military police, and propped up with questionable temporary beams.

British architect John Sanday, who led the World Monuments Fund restoration of Cambodia's Angkor Wat, the largest religious monument in the world, fell in love with the place decades ago. After the earthquake, he came up the Changu path with trepidation.

"I was very emotional walking into this place. The whole of the courtyard was littered with rubble. I thought, 'Come on, John, you've got to pull yourself together,'" he recalled.

But then Sanday noticed wooden supports exposed by the missing brick. He saw what looked like a bedrock foundation. And he decided that of the 600 historical temples, monuments and palaces damaged by the earthquake in Nepal, this one would be his project.

"Sure, it's peanuts, a little temple, so why is it so special?" said Sanday. "The detail. The grace. It's one of the few World Heritage Sites that hasn't been completely destroyed by development."

But what really drew him to step in as technical adviser were the people of this village.

Among tourists and pilgrims, Changu Narayan's residents pray there at dusk, kneel at the deities, bow to the gods, offer alms to the priests who stand duty at the door.

Three people died and 100 homes were damaged in Changu Village, a 30-minute drive from downtown Kathmandu, during the earthquake. Like families in the city 12.5 miles (20 kilometers) away, the Changu community grieved, cried and cleaned up rubble.

But in the hilltop village the community did something else: With rags and water, little picks and brushes, they cleaned the ancient and exotic carved brackets and facades, cleaning and repairing, bit by bit, so they could resume their worship. Now Sanday says their dedication is his inspiration. He will not allow their culture to disappear with the damaged building.

Conserving an ancient building means solving a series of incredibly complicated puzzles. Rotted or mice-chewed timbers must be replaced. An unstable and stretched government bureaucracy must remain in charge. And there's $300,000 to raise.

For starters, with $30,000 of German support, he helped the community rebuild one of Changu's shrines, the size of a little guardhouse. Now he's looking at the larger temple a few yards away.

"This is a place we can save, no doubt," said Sanday. "The people here will make sure of that."


http://www.readingeagle.com/article/20170116/AP/301169872
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NRNA building model village in quake-hit Laprak

KATHMANDU: The Non-Resident Nepali Association said it was actively working to construct a model village in Gupsipakha, Laprak, near the epicentre of the 2015 April earthquake in Gorkha district.
The government has issued a permission to the NRNA to build 573 earthquake-resistant houses in the village.
The NRNA is set to mobilise its volunteers globally from February to October for the reconstruction campaign.
It is preparing basic facilities for volunteers to stay during the project period in Laprak.
The NRNA International Coordination Committee President Shesh Ghale himself was in Gorkha in December last week and January first week along with his team members to set up the model village, the organisation said.
Ghale was accompanied by NRNA members including NRNA Regional Coordinator Americas Sonam Lama, NRNA ICC Member Australia Jamuna Gurung, NRNA Deputy Regional Coordinator Americas AC Sherpa, NRNA Advisor TB Karki, and Foreign Employment Relief Fund Task Force Co-Chair Shyam Tamang among others.
Ghale and the volunteer team together celebrated the Lhosar and the New Year 2017 with the local community of Laprak in a bid to bridge the gap between the local community and NRNA, according to an NRNA statement.
Recently, the government had managed to supply electricity to the remote village to assist in the reconstruction works.

http://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/nrna-building-model-village-in-quake-hit-laprak/
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Earthquakes in Canada: The impact of climate change on seismic activity


Natural disasters are expected to increase as climate change pushes global temperatures higher, and some scientists believe earthquakes will also become more frequent.


“An earthquake fault that is primed and ready to go is like a coiled spring … all that is needed to set it off is – quite literally – the pressure of a handshake,” scientist Bill McGuire, author of Waking the Giant: How a changing climate triggers earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, wrote in the Guardian last fall.

A warmer world prompting heavy masses of ice to melt, and heavier rains to fall, could trigger that activity, the theory goes.
“The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth’s surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults,” said Shimon Wdowinski, lead researcher of a 2011 study that found earthquakes tend to follow tropical cyclones.
Already in 2017 a 5.8-magnitude earthquake rattled Nunavut, a 5.1-magnitude earthquake was recorded off the coast of B.C, and a 2.7 magnitude quake shook Nova Scotia.
While many parts of the country are prone to seismic activity, experts say Canadians shouldn’t worry about their city or town suddenly becoming a earthquake hot spot due to a warmer atmosphere.

Thousands of earthquakes annually

Earthquakes rattle Canada thousands of times every year — there are an estimated 2,500 annually in Western Canada alone. Thanks to the Internet, social media and apps, we’re now more aware of the activity that has always commonly occurred.
“A lot of people think there’s suddenly an increase but it’s just that they’re getting a lot more coverage than they used to,” said Alison Bird, earthquake seismologist with the Geological Survey of Canada.
Climate change, “won’t generally cause more earthquakes to happen,” Bird said.
A map showing all the earthquakes to strike Canada over a month-long period – Dec. 15, 2016 to Jan. 15, 2017.


A map showing all the earthquakes to strike Canada over a month-long period – Dec. 15, 2016 to Jan. 15, 2017.
Natural Resources Canada
“No, climate change will not result in increased earthquake activity,” agreed Gail Atkinson, professor of earth sciences at Western University, in an email to Global News.
However, in the North adjustments to the changing landscape has prompted some seismic activity, Bird said.
“The glaciers receded from the last ice age, which was considerable time ago — we’re talking about thousands of years,” said Bird. “Because the weight of those glaciers receding has been lifted, the ground is slowly moving up after having that weight removed from it, and you can have earthquakes because of that sort of thing. They tend to be quite small.”



While there may be more small events, Canada’s sparsely-populated Arctic is unlikely to suddenly see massive seismic activity.
“Climate change is not something that just started,” noted Christie Rowe, assistant professor in earth and planetary sciences at McGill University.

“All the earthquake patterns that we know of are basically [from] the last century. So the patterns that we know of are already happening in the climate changing world.”

Drop, cover and hold on

Because of a subduction zone along the coast, British Columbia is prone to “the largest earthquakes in the world, the mega-stress earthquakes with tsunami,” said Bird.
Those massive earthquakes, often called “the big one”, happen every few hundred years. The last one to strike along the B.C. coast was on Jan. 26, 1700.

Earthquakes on the smaller scale — 4.5 or 5 in magnitude — can cause some damage, particularly in areas where infrastructure was not designed with quakes in mind. The “big one” would be a 9.
While Canada is seldom struck by catastrophic earthquakes, experts agree Canadians from coast to coast should be prepared.
“You can argue that it’s very unlikely that someone in Saskatchewan is going to experience a damaging earthquake in their lifetime, but it’s not just for where they live, but where they play,” said Bird.

Bird encourages drill exercises in all provinces and territories — drop, cover and hold on.
“When you’re in a stressful situation your brain doesn’t function properly, and your instinct is to run. Running is one of the worst things you can do in an earthquake.”
Earthquakes are pretty much impossible to predict, Simon Fraser University earth sciences department chair Brent Ward told Global News last month.
“All we can do is prepare. People should have a plan, because they’re not going to be able to use their cellphones. Have a plan about where to meet and what to do in this situation, and have an earthquake kit,” Ward said.

Many parts of Canada are prone to seismic activity.
According to the Geological Survey of Canada and Natural Resources Canada, there is a 30 per cent chance that B.C. will see an earthquake strong enough to cause significant damage in the next 50 years.
Ground shake, landslides, tsunami and fire would ensue.
The region spanning from the St. Lawrence River in Quebec to the Ottawa Valley — which includes Quebec City, Montreal and Ottawa — has a five to 15 per cent chance of a major earthquake over the next half century.
With a file from Jill Slattery


 
 http://globalnews.ca/news/3169214/earthquakes-climate-change-canada/

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3.8R in Greece


As soon as they realised we got it perfectly right it was downgraded to 3.8R this morning. LOL.
Another very good prediction!
Magnitude

ML 3.8
RegionCRETE, GREECE
Date time2017-01-16 02:45:42.8 UTC
Location34.87 N ; 23.81 E
Depth10 km
Distances345 km S of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 04:45:42.8 2017-01-16
132 km W of Irákleion, Greece / pop: 138,000 / local time: 04:45:42.8 2017-01-16
74 km S of Chaniá, Greece / pop: 54,600 / local time: 04:45:42.8 2017-01-16
42 km S of Palaiochóra, Greece / pop: 2,400 / local time: 04:45:42.8 2017-01-16
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Sunday, January 15, 2017

Which country tomorrow? (16th January 2017)

On a day where Geocentrically Mercury is Trine the Node, and Moon is Square Saturn, using our methods we can deduce that for tomorrow, 16th January 2017 we have the following countries/regions of vulnerability for some good earthquake event.

Our method derives a few possible countries which are in the following list. Not necessarily all of them are likely to appear.
  • IRAN  (35.2N,56.4E) (33.23N,56.4E)
  • ITALY
  • PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN  (35.3N, 73.3E)  (35.3N, 66.3E)
  • TAIWAN  (23.23N, 121.3E) or (24.2N, 121.3E)
  • TONGA (21.4S, 174.3 or 174.7W)
  • GREECE  (35.28N, 23.3E)
  • JAPAN   (35.3N, 140.2E) (38.3N, 39.3N, 140.2E)
  • PHILIPPINES  (18.2N, 121.2E) (8.4N, 123.2E or 125.24E)
The location of those events we estimate to be as shown on the map below:




Read more..

Taiwan Today?

It is possible that we get some activity in Taiwan today, and we estimate a location  on (24.19N, 121.3E)

You can read our methodology here.

Disclaimer



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Iran-Dubai Today?

It is possible to get some activity in Iran today as follows:
(34.5N, 50.3E)   (34.5N, 54.3E)
There is a possibility also that the Dubai area to be a vulnerable.
(25.1N,54.33E)  (24.3N,54.33)

You can read our methodology here.

Disclaimer
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4.8R in TONGA yesterday as expected!!!

Well, we were expecting this event yesterday and it did come exactly as expected. I am pleased also the coordinates were good! It is gratifying that lately those earthquakes that arrive are pretty well spot on on coordinates. :)

Tonga (21.5S, 174.4W)

Magnitude

mb 4.8
RegionTONGA
Date time2017-01-14 22:00:11.6 UTC
Location19.89 S ; 173.12 W
Depth35 km
Distances257 km NE of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 11:00:11.6 2017-01-15
129 km E of Pangai, Tonga / pop: 1,800 / local time: 11:00:11.6 2017-01-15
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3.0R in Oklahoma

This normal magnitude Oklahoma earthquake which we were expecting yesterday did come in the end at 21:36hrs. Our predicted coordinates were  Oklahoma: (35.35N,97.5W). What we got is shown below....not bad.

Magnitude

mb 3.0
RegionOKLAHOMA
Date time2017-01-14 21:36:33.0 UTC
Location36.26 N ; 97.33 W
Depth3 km
Distances389 km N of Dallas, United States / pop: 1,198,000 / local time: 15:36:33.0 2017-01-14
90 km N of Oklahoma City, United States / pop: 580,000 / local time: 15:36:33.0 2017-01-14
5 km SW of Perry, United States / pop: 5,200 / local time: 15:36:33.0 2017-01-14
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4.5R in Crete <----As predicted

A day later but within the +-1 day window we have for our methods.
Our prediction was for (35.1N, 24.3E)
Just spot on coordinates.

mb 4.5

RegionCRETE, GREECE
Date time2017-01-15 03:37:23.3 UTC
Location35.04 N ; 23.08 E
Depth40 km
Distances331 km S of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 05:37:23.3 2017-01-15
191 km W of Irákleion, Greece / pop: 138,000 / local time: 05:37:23.3 2017-01-15
100 km SW of Chaniá, Greece / pop: 54,600 / local time: 05:37:23.3 2017-01-15
59 km W of Palaiochóra, Greece / pop: 2,400 / local time: 05:37:23.3 2017-01-15
Read more..

Saturday, January 14, 2017

3.6R in Crete! Spot on!



As predicted the two events in Crete,  were very close to our suggestion for an event today. We predicted  (35.1N,23.26E)
 Spot on on one of the two.

MagnitudeML 3.3
RegionCRETE, GREECE
Date time2017-01-14 06:31:59.8 UTC
Location35.27 N ; 23.28 E
Depth1 km
Distances303 km S of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 08:31:59.8 2017-01-14
170 km W of Irákleion, Greece / pop: 138,000 / local time: 08:31:59.8 2017-01-14
72 km W of Chaniá, Greece / pop: 54,600 / local time: 08:31:59.8 2017-01-14
36 km SW of Plátanos, Greece / pop: 1,100 / local time: 08:31:59.8 2017-01-14


MagnitudeML 3.6
RegionCRETE, GREECE
Date time2017-01-14 06:28:48.8 UTC
Location34.53 N ; 24.98 E
Depth10 km
Distances399 km S of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 08:28:48.8 2017-01-14
90 km S of Irákleion, Greece / pop: 138,000 / local time: 08:28:48.8 2017-01-14
54 km S of Pýrgos, Greece / pop: 1,200 / local time: 08:28:48.8 2017-01-14


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4.3R in Philippines !





Another good prediction including coordinates! About a degree off on a day where there is dispersion and hard to predict.

MagnitudeML 4.3
RegionNEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
Date time2017-01-14 06:35:00.0 UTC
Location9.72 N ; 123.91 E
Depth19 km
Distances284 km N of Budta, Philippines / pop: 1,274,000 / local time: 14:35:00.0 2017-01-14
66 km S of Cebu City, Philippines / pop: 799,000 / local time: 14:35:00.0 2017-01-14
5 km NE of La Paz, Philippines / pop: 3,200 / local time: 14:35:00.0 2017-01-14
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5.6R in Indonesia!


A 5.6R event has just been reported in Molucca Sea Indonesia! We did say a breakout event is possible today and it has come!

Magnitudemb 5.6
RegionMOLUCCA SEA
Date time2017-01-14 11:41:22.5 UTC
Location1.23 N ; 126.39 E
Depth60 km
Distances652 km S of Davao, Philippines / pop: 1,213,000 / local time: 19:41:22.5 2017-01-14
174 km E of Manado, Indonesia / pop: 452,000 / local time: 19:41:22.5 2017-01-14
122 km NW of Ternate, Indonesia / pop: 102,000 / local time: 20:41:22.5 2017-01-14
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5.4R in Tonga!


5.4R in Tonga has just been reported. We were expecting Tonga but the wrong side of the island.

Magnitudemb 5.4
RegionTONGA
Date time2017-01-14 10:34:52.3 UTC
Location15.34 S ; 173.43 W
Depth10 km
Distances245 km SW of Apia, Samoa / pop: 40,500 / local time: 00:34:52.3 2017-01-15
207 km SW of Gataivai, Samoa / pop: 1,200 / local time: 00:34:52.3 2017-01-15
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