Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Thousands of Birds Mysteriously Die In India

Thousands of migratory birds of about ten species were found dead around Sambhar Lake, India’s largest inland saltwater lake near Jaipur.

Officials suspect water contamination as one of the reasons for the deaths.

Officials report 1,500 carcasses while locals say there are more than 5,000 dead birds.
We have never seen anything like that. Over 5,000 birds died mysteriously all over the place,” said 25-year-old Abhinav Vaishnav, a local bird-watcher as he discovered with some of his friends the bodies of hundreds of lifeless migratory birds last Sunday.
Officials said they suspect water contamination as one of the reasons for the deaths but were awaiting viscera test reports.

Hailstorm? Bird Flu? Water Contamination? Increased Salinity?

Carcasses of thousands of dead birds including plovers, common coot, black winged stilt, northern shovelers, ruddy shelduck, and pied avocet were scattered on the edge of 12-13 km of the catchment area of the lake.

Thousands of birds found dead near lake in India, birds die mysteriously in India video, birds die mysteriously in India pictures
The dead birds were collected and dumped in a massive pit. Picture PTI via The Hindu
Forest ranger Rajendra Jakhar said a possible reason could be a hailstorm that hit the area a few days back, as recently reported in Montana, South Africa or India again.
We estimate about 1,500 birds of about 10 species have died. We are also looking at other possibilities like toxicity of the water, bacterial or viral infection,” he said.

Thousands of birds found dead near lake in India, birds die mysteriously in India video, birds die mysteriously in India pictures
housands of birds found dead on the shore of the largest salt lake in India. Picture via Youtube video
Bird flu has already been ruled out by veterinarians: “At initial examination we did not find any sort of secretion from the birds, which is a giveaway in the cases of bird flu. However, the water may have been contaminated.
Increased salinity of the water could also be another reason, as enhanced salt concentration in the blood can slow down the blood flow sometimes leading to a collapse of internal organs and of the brain.
A medical team from Jaipur has collected a few carcasses and water samples have been sent to Bhopal for further toxicological examination.

Mysterious Bird Mass Die-Off Perplexes Locals and Officials

Every year, the lake hosts approximately 50,000 flamingos and 1,000,000 waders.
The strange mass die-off event has left villagers and officials baffled for the lack of a sensible explanation.

Thousands of birds found dead near lake in India, birds die mysteriously in India video, birds die mysteriously in India pictures
One of the thousand birds found dead in India. Picture PTI via The Hindu
I have never seen such a thing in 40 years of loyal service for the forest department. First I thought it could be because the result of hail, but that occurs every year. There is no chemical waste in this water either,” said Ramesh Chandra Daroga, a local working with the forest department.
This is the second such unexplained incident in the state within a week after 37 demoiselle cranes were found dead in Jodhpur’s Khinchan area last Thursday.
Meanwhile, the carcasses are being collected and buried in a ditch. What is the reason behind this horrifying bird mass die-off?
Read more..

Southeastern France rocked by 5.4-magnitude earthquake

An unusually strong earthquake hit southeastern France on Monday, (11th Nov) seriously injuring at least one person, authorities said.
The quake, with a magnitude of 5.4, was felt in a vast area between the cities of Lyon and Montelimar which are about 150 kilometers (93 miles) apart, the the national seismological office said.
“I was leaning against the oven in my mother’s bakery when I felt the tremor,” said Victoria Brielle, a resident in Privas, some 25 kilometres from the quake’s epicentre.
“A customer’s crockery toppled over and everything broke,” she said.
Another resident in the area, Didier Levy, who lives in a 15th century castle, told AFP that “chandeliers were still trembling” several minutes after the quake.
Levy, who said his dog starting barked even before humans felt the tremors, added: “I have never experienced anything like it, I could feel the trembling even though these walls are one metre thick.”
One person was seriously hurt when a scaffolding collapsed, the regional governor’s office said.
Three other people in the neighbouring Ardeche region were slightly injured, AFP reported.
The regional governor’s office added that there was no serious damage recorded in any nearby buildings — and no damage at all at the nearby nuclear power plant of Tricastin.
According to messages posted on social networks, a slight jolt was felt in Montpellier, Lyon, St Etienne, Grenoble, Avignon and Marseille.
Read more..

France extends nuclear reactors outage after earthquake

French utility EDF on Tuesday extended outages at three nuclear reactors at its Cruas plant until Nov. 15 following a 5.1 magnitude earthquake in southeast France that forced it to temporarily suspend electricity generation at the site.
A sensor at the plant was activated during the earthquake in the region on Monday, requiring the state-controlled utility to carry out further checks for potential damage.
A spokesman for EDF said the outage extension would allow enough time for thorough visual and advanced checks across the plant, including in the nuclear buildings to ascertain that the units could function properly when they restarted.
France’s ASN nuclear safety agency on Monday said it was monitoring the situation and would decide when the reactors could restart.
The outage at the three reactors reduced French power generation by 2,700 megawatts (MW).
European wholesale power prices for day-ahead delivery surged to their highest level in 9-1/2 months on Tuesday on tight supply concerns following EDF’s decision to halt the reactors.
France’s day-ahead spot power price soared 24.3% in early trade to 60 euros ($66) a megawatt hour (MWh), due to the reactor outage.
A spokeswoman for French electricity grid operator RTE, said France had enough generation capacity to cover demand on Tuesday despite the sudden outage.
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Research sheds new light on earthquake that killed 9,000 people

A new understanding of a fault that caused a deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake can help scientists better understand where and when the next big one will hit.
For decades, scientists have debated the structure of the Main Himalayan Thrust—the fault responsible for a 2015 earthquake that killed nearly 9,000 people, injured 22,000, and destroyed 600,000 homes in Gorkha, Nepal. This fault is a direct result of ongoing collision between two tectonic plates—the Indian and Eurasian—that gives rise to the Himalayas.
Led by UC Riverside, a team of researchers has determined a new geometric model for the fault that will allow officials to better prepare for future shakers. The team's work is detailed in a paper published today in Nature Geoscience.
"This is the most high-resolution model of this fault structure to date," said Abhijit Ghosh, a UCR associate professor of geophysics. "With this knowledge we can better explain why the quake happened the way it happened, and better estimate the stress points along the fault that may act as birthplaces for future large damaging earthquakes."
Following the quake, Ghosh and his collaborators rushed to Nepal to operate a network of 45 seismometers in the ground. Their journey was complicated by the difficulty of traveling in that high-altitude, rocky region as well as the timing of the quake during monsoon season.
Despite the difficulties, the team pushed through because the existing network of aftershock-measuring devices, known as seismic stations, was very limited. Without data on the aftershocks, such as their locations and magnitude, it would not have been possible to develop a more detailed understanding of the fault.
"The geometry of the fault also matters," Ghosh said. "It's critical to look at smaller earthquakes and aftershocks to determine where the stress points are in a fault. Fault geometry plays a major role in earthquake generation."
It is also critical to learn the shape of a fault, as well as earthquake "style," meaning the ways in which a block of rock moves relative to other rocks during an earthquake.
The team found that the Himalayan Thrust, which runs more than 1,000 kilometers from Pakistan to Myanmar, is built in a shape known as a duplex in the area where the magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred in 2015.
"It consists of two horizontal planes connected by a complex structure bounded by many not-quite-horizontal faults," Ghosh explained.
This study was funded by the National Science Foundation. The first author of the paper is Matt Mendoza, a Ph.D. student in the Ghosh Earthquake Seismology lab at UCR. Partners included the Government of Nepal's Department of Mining and Geology, as well as researchers from Stanford University, the University of Texas, El Paso, and the University of Oregon.
The team concluded the fault is still accumulating stress, and that the 2015 event may have increased the likelihood of another big earthquake nearby. This last point may be of interest to Californians.
Accumulated stress from the Nepalese earthquake may be adding stress to parts of the underlying fault that haven't ruptured yet, and the same may be true of faults in Southern California.
In particular, Ghosh is interested in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake that hit Ridgecrest, Calif., on July 5. The 150-mile-long Garlock fault lies perpendicular to the one that caused the Ridgecrest quake and could produce an even larger and more damaging earthquake.
Those residing anywhere near major fault lines should always have an emergency plan and supplies on hand because earthquakes are inevitable.
"The moral of this story is if you live anywhere near a fault, get your earthquake kit ready," Ghosh said. "That is always the moral of the story."
Read more..

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Can dogs detect earthquakes?

On a wonderful, run-of-the-mill Fourth of July holiday with fireworks earlier this month, Southern California was hit with two consecutive, horrible earthquakes. Just before the first earthquake, being a SoCal resident, our pets began to bark, squack, and whimper. My dog immediately jumped up, only to begin barking at us with a ferocity and sense of urgency that worried us, running in circles. Seconds later, it was clear that his barking was a warning, an indication of the incoming 6.9 earthquake. Our house shook, as any furniture not earthquake-strapped was thrown across the room as if an invisible hand was reaching into a toy home.
My family and I grabbed our pets and ran, seeking shelter in doorways, underneath tables, slowly making our way outside as advised since we were in grade school. After about 20 seconds, the earthquake was over, but the shock wasn’t. My dog’s indications before the earthquake gave our family a couple seconds more than we would have had. And the next earthquake, just a day later, he acted agitated once again – this time saving our family from a 7.1 earthquake on the Richter Scale. But it led me to the question I had been ruminating over in my mind – did my dog really sense earthquakes before they hit?
Earthquakes often follow fault lines and can cause fatalities, which is why any ability to be given extra time to prepare is crucial.  

The Science

As a prolific scientist and soon-to-be doctor, this mystery was right up my alley way. I dove into research studies on animal behavior to find that Unusual Animal Behaviors, or UABs, were found before the destructive Japanese earthquake of 2011 as well. As it turns out, about 20% of dog owners noted their dogs acting agitated or restless minutes or seconds before the earthquake hit. While scientists and researchers haven’t been able to conclusively state exactly why some animals, dogs included, are indeed able to sense earthquakes, many postulate it has to do with their hearing and olfactory capabilities.
In fact, before an earthquake hits, many animals have been seen to move away days before from the epicenter of the earthquake. Cows have even stopped producing milk in anticipation of earthquakes. For dogs, most agitated behavior appears between approximately 24 hours to the seconds before the earthquake itself hits. Some dogs will work themselves up to the point where they may run or try to even escape.
Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 3
Agitated behavior before an earthquake has been documented in all kinds of animals, from dogs to cows. 
Scientifically, the hearing range for dogs is from 67 Hz to 44,000 Hz. The greater the number of Hertz (Hz), the higher pitch the sound takes on. On the other hand, studies have shown that humans have no where near the hearing abilities of a dog – ranging from 31 to 17,000 Hertz. While this allows us to hear marginally lower noises, it does prevent us from seeing or hearing higher noises which may alert dogs to the incoming earthquake due to the vibrations from the shifting of the tectonic plates.
Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 4
Dogs rely on their hearing and smelling capabilities much more than humans do.
In a similar line of thinking, the olfactory senses of dogs are also much superior than that of humans. We all love and know that our dogs rely on their noses more than they do their eyes, in comparison with our human senses. Better smell in animals is dependent on the number of olfactory cells in the nose. In this competition, our dogs beat us by over 270 million cells. Humans are known to have anywhere between 5-10 million cells, while dogs have, on average, 280 million, varying depending on the breed.
These senses, when disturbed, may lead dogs to exhibit this worrisome UAB behavior, serving as a potential warning for owners of a serious incoming earthquake. Changes in the environment such as a change in atm (atmospheric pressure), changes in balance, due to alterations in the gravitational force of the earth, tilts from the tectonic plates, and vibrations from the building pressures and gases are minuscule and undetectable to humans, but may be detected by our dogs: a way of mother nature warning us before the Big One hits.
Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 5
Some dogs will display agitated behavior during the buildup to an earthquake, even acting aggressively and howling.
Agitated behavior and warning signs vary from dog to dog, but some “tells” include sniffing frantically, whining, running in circles, acting generally restless, pacing, running outside, howling, and jumping. While these behaviors may be uncommon for some dogs, they are plenty common for other breeds – take the way your dog is behaving with a grain of salt in context with their surroundings. Oftentimes, you’ll be able to tell the difference between agitated behaviors due to seismic movement and a dog excited to play fetch.

Preparing For An Earthquake

In case an earthquake hits where you and your lovely pup live, be aware of what to do. Understand that while it is a possibility that your dog may alert you, there is also a possibility that your dog may not sense anything before the earthquake hits either. Some dogs who are hard-of-hearing, or have ears not conducive to hearing high-pitched noises may not be able to sense it or give you a warning.
Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 6
Be sure your dog has dog tags with his name and essential contact info! 
However, always have a plan regardless. Keep pictures of your pup and registration paperwork digitally saved as well as secured in a safe location in your home. Always have extra snacks, canned and dry food, and water available for your dog in your first aid/emergency kit in an accessible location after a potential earthquake. Ensure your dog has an ID tag hooked around his or her collar, with two different phone numbers to reach in case of emergency. An address, or even your own or the official owner’s name is a good idea to stencil on to the dog tag if possible. Ensure you have your dog chipped early on, which can come in handy not just in case of an earthquake, but in any scary scenario.
Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 7
Our hero-puppies can get scared by quakes too. Be sure to keep an eye on their behavior after the quake too. 
While our dogs are wonderful heroes in our hearts, it is only natural that they get scared. Dogs, when frightened, will often search for a place to run to our hide in. During an earthquake, they may attempt to run underneath something to stay safe, or run outside, away from what they perceive as the source of the danger. For preemptive measures, keep an eye on where your dog like to hide, and be aware that they may seek safety there. Check to ensure that hiding location is safe and structurally solid.
If an earthquake does hit, take cover and take note of your dog’s behavior. It might just save your life!

Here’s a video of a dog realizing an earthquake’s about to happen!

During An Earthquake 

When an earthquake hits, be sure to follow protocol. Run outside or in a doorway, hide under a secure table, protect your neck, and brace. However, while it may seem counterintuitive, try not to shield your dog. Dogs are great at protecting themselves. They will instinctively run for safety, and are oftentimes very good at staying safe – more so than humans. Shielding and grabbing your dog when it is not needed can lead to greater stress on your dog, which can cause them to advertently injure you. Unless your dog is unable or unwilling to run or take cover, be aware that they will take care of themselves when the shaking commences.

After The “Big One” Hits 

1. Standard Protocol

Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 8
Always have a first aid kit handy in case of a quake. Keep items in it for your dog too! 

After the shaking stops, take note of any injuries and account for your pet and family members first. If everyone is safe, grab that first aid/earthquake preparedness kit out if accessible and feed your dog some treats to reassure them of their safety and surroundings. Keep your dog (and yourself, of course) well-hydrated and treat any wounds that are open as soon as possible to prevent infection. If you or neighbors are unable to reach your earthquake kits, share and help one another!

2. Running Away

Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 9
Dogs may inadvertently run away during a quake, and be too scared to find their way home.

As during any natural disaster, some things do go awry. People may be injured, and dogs are not immune to the power of earthquakes either. Some dogs may run away in trying to reach safety. This is a reaction to the fight-or-flight mechanism that is in all animals, even humans. In this heightened state of awareness, your dog may become too stressed or mentally distressed to find its way back home on its own. In this scenario, the best option is to first contact neighbors, animal control, and local dog shelters. Ensure that you have searched around every bit of your home and nearby neighborhood, putting up flyers and alerts on lost dog pages online. Your dog may hide and be scared to come out of hiding.
If your dog is lost and scared, a good idea is to leave familiar items around the neighborhood that your dog interacts with. They may just find their way to those items and find comfort in them, helping you bring your dog back home!

2. Home Alone

If you are away at the time of the earthquake, always have someone check on your pets immediately. Not only can an earthquake be scary for dogs, but aside from the physical danger, the isolation may cause them to panic and become severely stressed. Have someone stay with your pets or take them to a safe place if you cannot reach them first. Ensure that whoever is going to check up on your pets is someone who your pet will trust in a familiar environment and has met before to reduce anxiety levels. New environments and new people may not be the best combination at the time.

3. Trauma

Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 10
Dogs can be traumatised by loud noises, ranging from something as severe as an earthquake to even the rumbling of a truck running on by.

As with any traumatic event, your dog’s mental and physical health may decline. Some dogs, in a hyper-stressed environment will begin to vomit, refuse to eat or drink, or disturb their GI tract (gastrointestinal tract). Over the next few days, they may become lethargic due to the lack of sustenance, causing worry.
My dog was unable to cope with two earthquakes hitting in a row. The stress of the earthquakes built up to cause him to vomit repeatedly and cease eating for two days. His symptoms after the quake escalated to the point where he was put on antibiotics for approximately 10 days and given IV fluid to replenish his water supply by the veterinarian.
Can Dogs Detect Earthquakes? How to Prepare and Help Your Dog Cope After an Earthquake 11
Canned pumpkin is a common remedy for upset stomach due to its high fiber content. 
On the physical side, my dog found it easier to eat reduced quantities multiple times a day instead of larger sizes once or twice a day. To help with a distressed digestive system, your veterinarian may place dog on a bland diet, such as canned pumpkin, to help reset their tract. If medical attention seems necessary, your vet may take additional steps based on their discretion and analysis of the situation.
If your pup is clearly declining in health due to the stress of the earthquake, having some calming aids handy and helping restore a sense of familiarity may help. If you are worried about your pet, or he/she is exhibiting these symptoms, the best bet is to call a veterinarian’s office and ask to speak with a medical professional, and perhaps take an appointment.
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4.0R in South California

A 4.0R has been reported in S California near Mexicali. The location of the epicenter is shown in the map shown above.
Below shows the calculated stress points and the arrow the epicenter.

MagnitudeMw 4.0
Date time2019-11-12 02:13:52.2 UTC
Location32.79 N ; 115.55 W
Depth19 km
Distances140 km E of Tijuana, Mexico / pop: 1,377,000 / local time: 18:13:52.2 2019-11-11
17 km NW of Mexicali, Mexico / pop: 598,000 / local time: 18:13:52.2 2019-11-11
1 km E of El Centro, United States / pop: 42,600 / local time: 18:13:52.2 2019-11-11
7 km S of Imperial, United States / pop: 14,800 / local time: 18:13:52.2 2019-11-11

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6.3R in Tonga <--As predicted

A 6.3R earthquake has been reported late last night in Tonga at the epicenter location shown in the map above.
Below we see our predictive date for Tonga and clearlly we see the peak is there. Always remember +-1 day for our data. Therefore we see this 6.3R as a Mercury - Sun alignment as we discussed.

Below we see the calculated by our methods ste stress poits of the Tonga islands and the arrow shows the epicenter in the middle.

MagnitudeMw 6.3
Date time2019-11-11 23:03:27.9 UTC
Location19.01 S ; 175.56 W
Depth10 km

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Monday, November 11, 2019

4.9 R in France

A 4.9R downgraded from 5.3R earthquake has been reported this afternoon only 4km North from Malataverne in France. The French earthquake detection agency says a moderate tremor measuring 5.4 in magnitude has struck southern France in a remote area of the Drome department between Lyon and Marseille.
The agency said the quake occurred before noon Monday and its epicenter was situated near the town of Montelimar in the Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes region.
According to messages posted on social networks, a slight jolt was felt in Montpellier, Lyon, St Etienne, Grenoble, Avignon and Marseille.

MagnitudeML 5.3
Date time2019-11-11 10:52:44.8 UTC
Location44.52 N ; 4.75 E
Depth2 km
Distances231 km NW of Monaco, Monaco / pop: 33,000 / local time: 11:52:44.8 2019-11-11
123 km NE of Montpellier, France / pop: 249,000 / local time: 11:52:44.8 2019-11-11
27 km SE of Privas, France / pop: 9,600 / local time: 11:52:44.8 2019-11-11
4 km N of Malataverne, France / pop: 1,600 / local time: 11:52:44.8 2019-11-11

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Sunday, November 10, 2019

4.8R in NW Iran

A strong 4.8R was reported this morning in NW Iran as shown in the location in the above map.
This is the same location region as in the previous strong fatal earthquake on 7th November.
Below shows the expected event of today as can be seen by the peak of the Iran calendar below. This is only a day early from the expected date. (within our tolerance).

Magnitudemb 4.8
Date time2019-11-10 02:13:46.5 UTC
Location37.71 N ; 47.44 E
Depth2 km
Distances109 km E of Tabrīz, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 1,425,000 / local time: 05:43:46.5 2019-11-10
96 km SW of Ardabīl, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 411,000 / local time: 05:43:46.5 2019-11-10
43 km NE of Hashtrūd, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 16,900 / local time: 05:43:46.5 2019-11-10

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Friday, November 8, 2019

6.6R in Fiji

A 6.6R earthquake has just been reported in the location shown in the map above. This event is far away from Fiji and therefore the limits of our boundaries of Fiji. However, the calendar below shows a decent peak anyway for a fair prediction as can be seen below.

MagnitudeMw 6.6
Date time2019-11-08 10:44:44.4 UTC
Location21.98 S ; 179.56 W
Depth574 km
Distances461 km W of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 23:44:44.4 2019-11-08
459 km W of Havelu, Tonga / pop: 3,500 / local time: 23:44:44.4 2019-11-08

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5.9R in Tonga --->Expected

5.9R earthquake has been reported in Tonga, at the location shown in the map above. This was at a depth 10km. Below is the calendar we have published for November. This shows a peak tomorrow and shows increasing activity from tomorrow. Consider we state +-1 day this is good.

MagnitudeMw 5.9
Date time2019-11-08 09:41:11.1 UTC
Location15.90 S ; 173.00 W
Depth10 km
Distances264 km SW of Apia, Samoa / pop: 40,500 / local time: 23:41:11.1 2019-11-08
244 km S of Gataivai, Samoa / pop: 1,200 / local time: 23:41:11.1 2019-11-08

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5.2R in Papua New Guinea--->predicted

A 5.2R has just been reported in Papua New Guinea at the location shown in the above map. Below we also see the clear expectation today for the PNG region as the calendar for the stresses shown in the calendar below. The peak on 8th Nov is there clear.

MagnitudeMw 5.2
Date time2019-11-08 05:52:06.5 UTC
Location2.85 S ; 147.58 E
Depth10 km
Distances730 km N of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 15:52:06.5 2019-11-08
98 km S of Lorengau, Papua New Guinea / pop: 5,900 / local time: 15:52:06.5 2019-11-08

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5.4R in Philippines--->Expected

A 5.4 R earthquake was felt today in Leyte, in the Philippines at the location shown in the map above. The depth was at 60km and it was 23km from Sulangan.
Below we see the stress calendar for November for the Philippines and it clearly shows the expectation of such activity.

Magnitudemb 5.4
Date time2019-11-08 05:31:46.2 UTC
Location10.83 N ; 125.65 E
Depth60 km
Distances416 km N of Davao, Philippines / pop: 1,213,000 / local time: 13:31:46.2 2019-11-08
201 km E of Cebu City, Philippines / pop: 799,000 / local time: 13:31:46.2 2019-11-08
23 km SW of Sulangan, Philippines / pop: 3,100 / local time: 13:31:46.2 2019-11-08

You can read about our methodology here.


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Deadly 5.7R in Iran ---->Predicted

An earthquake was reported last night in NorthWestern Iran at the location reported by the map above of the epicenter. Below we can see the published since the beginning of the month of November for the stress activity we expect daily according to our own method.
It is, unfortunately, five people die, 120 injured when the shallow quake struck near the town of Hastrud, 500km north-west of Tehran just before 2.30am on Friday.
The earthquake was shallow, 5.7-5.9-magnitude the earthquake struck north-western Iran early on Friday, the United States Geological Survey has said, killing five people and injuring 120.
The quake struck around 60km (35 miles) from the town of Hastrud, in East Azerbaijan Province, shortly before 2.30am (2300 GMT).
It was 8km (5 miles) deep and described as “moderate” by Iran’s Seismological Centre. There were five aftershocks.
Provincial governor, Mohammad-Reza Pourmohammadi, told local media that at least 30 houses had been destroyed.
Rescue operations were underway in 41 rural villages, but the damage was largely concentrated in two areas.
The USGS issued an alert warning that “significant casualties are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread”.
Iran sits where two major tectonic plates meet and sees frequent seismic activity.
The country has suffered a number of major disasters in recent decades, including at the ancient city of Bam, which was decimated by a catastrophic earthquake in 2003 that killed at least 31,000 people.
In 1990, a 7.4-magnitude quake in northern Iran killed 40,000 people, injured 300,000 and left half a million homeless, reducing dozens of towns and nearly 2,000 villages to rubble.
Iran has experienced at least two other significant quakes in recent years – one in 2005 that killed more than 600 people and another in 2012 that left some 300 dead.

MagnitudeMw 5.7
Date time2019-11-07 22:47:06.2 UTC
Location37.81 N ; 47.59 E
Depth10 km
Distances118 km E of Tabrīz, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 1,425,000 / local time: 02:17:06.2 2019-11-08
79 km SW of Ardabīl, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 411,000 / local time: 02:17:06.2 2019-11-08
60 km NE of Hashtrūd, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 16,900 / local time: 02:17:06.2 2019-11-08

You can read about our methodology here.


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Thursday, November 7, 2019

4.8R in South of Italy

A 4.8R earthquake has been reported in South Italy at the location of the epicenter shown in the above map. This came 10km from Balsorano, and the earthquake was only 5km depth. We have no other news but it is 35km from Frosinone. We expected this as can be seen from the calendar of Italy, for November as can be seen in our blog. Spot on...

Magnitudemb 4.8
Date time2019-11-07 17:35:23.0 UTC
Location41.85 N ; 13.67 E
Depth5 km
Distances99 km E of Roma, Italy / pop: 2,564,000 / local time: 18:35:23.0 2019-11-07
60 km S of L’Aquila, Italy / pop: 68,600 / local time: 18:35:23.0 2019-11-07
36 km NE of Frosinone, Italy / pop: 48,700 / local time: 18:35:23.0 2019-11-07
10 km NE of Balsorano Vecchio, Italy / pop: 3,800 / local time: 18:35:23.0 2019-11-07

You can read about our methodology here.


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Wednesday, November 6, 2019

5.9R in Vanuatu <--As expected

A 5.9R earthquake has been reported late last night, and a 5.8R this morning forming a double earthquake at the epicenter shown in the map above. The Vanuatu calendar below is shown below where we see the expected peak a day later on the 7th.

MagnitudeMw 5.9
Date time2019-11-05 23:17:27.9 UTC
Location13.70 S ; 167.77 E
Depth30 km
Distances450 km N of Port-Vila, Vanuatu / pop: 36,000 / local time: 10:17:27.9 2019-11-06
213 km N of Luganville, Vanuatu / pop: 13,400 / local time: 10:17:27.9 2019-11-06
31 km NE of Sola, Vanuatu / pop: 1,200 / local time: 10:17:27.9 2019-11-06

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Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Southern Germany rattled by earthquake

The epicenter of the earthquake, which had a magnitude of 3.8, was north of Albstadt in the Zollernalbkreis district, halfway between Stuttgart and Lake Constance, the southwest earthquake service reported.
The tremors happened at 1.59am on Monday and were felt within a radius of about 30 kilometers.
The police in Tuttlingen reported that several residents called them during the night about the earthquake.  So far, no damage has been reported to the police.
Earthquakes with a magnitude between 2.5 and 5.4 on the Richter scale can often be felt and if they cause damage, it is usually only minor.
This summer a series of minor earthquakes have happened around the Lake Constance region. The strongest earthquake reached a magnitude of 3.7 and happened at the end of July.
Germany is situated in the middle of the Eurasian Plate and isn't particularly prone to huge earthquakes, but there are still some tremors recorded here. The country is transected by parts of the European Cenozoic Rift System, particularly in the Upper and Lower Rhine areas and these remain active today.
Most of the quakes occur in this area but there are also zones around the northern edge of the Alps, Lake Constance and in the Leipzig plain.
The map below shows the most at-risk zones in Germany. The red zones have the highest risk of earthquakes.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons
However, earthquakes can also cause major damage in Germany. That was demonstrated by the tremors registered in April 1992 in the border region between Germany and the Netherlands. The so-called Roermond earthquake had a magnitude of 5.3 and caused damage costing millions.
An earthquake in Albstadt in September 1978 was similar –- at that time the magnitude 5.7 was registered on the Richter scale.
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6.6R in Tonga <--As expected

A 6.6R earthquake has been reported in TONGA. The epicenter is shown in the map above. Below we have the expectation calendar where we see the peak on the 3rd, and this was expected within a day. Be Safe Be Good.

MagnitudeMw 6.6
Date time2019-11-04 22:43:32.1 UTC
Location18.53 S ; 175.31 W
Depth10 km
Distances288 km N of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 11:43:32.1 2019-11-05
141 km W of Neiafu, Tonga / pop: 4,400 / local time: 11:43:32.1 2019-11-05

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Monday, November 4, 2019

6.0R in Chile <---as predicted

A 6.0R earthquake has been reported half an hour ago in Chile. The epicenter is 25km South West of Illapel.  The strong earthquake has caused buildings to sway in Chile’s capital as thousands of people marched in the city’s center to demand better social services and less economic inequality.
There were no immediate reports of damages from Monday’s earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey put its preliminary magnitude at 6.0 and said its epicenter was located 17.4 miles (28 kilometers) southwest of Illapel, Chile near the country’s central coast. It had a depth of 49 kilometers.
 We have already posted the November calendar for Chile and we can see it below where we have been expecting it since yesterday, as can be seen by the peak.

Authorities in Chile said the quake was felt in the country’s capital and central cities.
Chile is located in the so-called “Ring of Fire,” which makes it one of the most seismic countries in the world. An 8.8-magnitude earthquake and ensuing tsunami in 2010 killed 525 people and left 26 missing.

MagnitudeMw 6.0
Date time2019-11-04 21:53:24.7 UTC
Location31.81 S ; 71.32 W
Depth51 km
Distances193 km N of Santiago, Chile / pop: 4,838,000 / local time: 18:53:24.7 2019-11-04
139 km N of Valparaíso, Chile / pop: 283,000 / local time: 18:53:24.7 2019-11-04
25 km SW of Illapel, Chile / pop: 22,900 / local time: 18:53:24.7 2019-11-04

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Friday, November 1, 2019

NEPAL: November 2019 --- FDL Method

Using our published FDL method, we use it as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of additional stresses exerted in a region which may lead to earthquakes or not. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real-time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram, we can see Nepal  Stress Calendar for the period of November 2019. For this period we can observe that there is a Higher* probability to have an earthquake >4R in Nepal on  4th, 8-10th, 22nd, and 30th November 2019 are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

(Note the scales are not Richter nor logarithmic).
The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)

You can read about our methodology here.


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