Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Irkutsk Neutron monitor fires up.

Irkutsk Neutron monitor fires up, in Russia.





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Tuesday, April 25, 2017

'Quake-Weather 26th April 2017': A Global Earthquake Review.




In this and similar reports we will be examining the global "earthquake weather", and we will be reporting where on the world our technique shows higher probability of siesmic vulnerability. Although we can do this for each and every one country by now, due to time contraints, the nature of the research, (we will be testing variant ideas), we will be listing out a few across the world. We hope this is useful to you, and certainly it will help us improve our techniques.

Using our methods we can deduce that for 26th April 2017, the following quakeweather and the following regions appear to be vulnerable to siesmic activity. Our experience shows that the time event tolerance can be +-1 day, and therefore it is worth keeping the list for 2 days as an event in the list could sometimes materialise the next day and sometimes the late hours of the previous day.

GLOBAL QUAKEWEATHER OVERVIEW: 
April 26th is a fair strong day as far as eartquake activity.  5R to 6R events are possible. Geocentric notable todayis that we have a New Moon.
The following are some coordinates we produced using our methods.

AMERICAS:
  •  California (37.3N, 120.2W)
  •  Mexico,  (15.7N, 96.3W),  (20N, 106.2W)
  •  Chile   (33S,72.6W)
  • Ecuador (1.3S, 81.3W)
  • Oklahoma (36.4N, 96.3W) 
  • British Columbia (52.3N, 127.3W)
EUROPE:
  • Italy (38.3N, 16.2N) Peaks on 27th

ASIA/AUSTRALIA:   The possible countries which could come up are shown below. Not all of them I expect to fire up as we use a mix of predictive methods.

  • Fiji  (16.3S, 20.2S, 178.2E) 
  • Indonesia (6.3S, 127.3E, 112.2E, 119.2E)
  • Japan (37.3N, 141.3E)
  • New Zealand (38.3S, 178.4E) if it comes.
  • Philippines  (16.3N, 121.3E)
  • Taiwan (23.2N, 121.3E)
  • Nepal (28.4N, 83.3E) small possibility
  • Tonga (22.3S, 178.4W)  possibly
AFRICA
  • Botswana (23.3S, 23.4E)




You can read about our methodology here.

Diclaimer



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Antarctica is melting faster than originally thought, new study finds

Researchers at Columbia University's Earth Institute have discovered that the melting of the Antarctic ice is happening at a much faster rate than previously believed.

The researchers, who published in the journal Nature, found enormous amounts of meltwater in places where they didn't expect it, including a 400-foot-wide waterfall on the Nansen ice shelf.

Previously, meltwater was believed to have been confined to the northernmost reaches of Antarctica, the parts that are warming the fastest. The extensiveness of the ice melting could cause sea levels to raise much faster than previously projected, particularly as they increase the likelihood of chunks of the ice shelf breaking off entirely.

"This is not in the future - this is widespread now, and has been for decades," said lead author Jonathan Kingslake, a glaciologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "I think most polar scientists have considered water moving across the surface of Antarctica to be extremely rare. But we found a lot of it, over very large areas."

Melt streams were discovered in Antarctica during the early 20th century, and since then a network of 700 seasonal systems of ponds, channels, and streams have been discovered. "Now, looking forward, it will be really important to work out how these systems will change in response to warming, and how this will affect the ice sheets."

"This study tells us there's already a lot more melting going on than we thought," said coauthor Robin Bell, also with Lamont-Doherty. "When you turn up the temperature, it's only going to increase."

Meltwater typically refreezes in the winter, meaning that the ice shelf should remain stable for the moment. However, this isn't expected to continue forever — if too much of the ice melts, the land-bound glaciers will be allowed to escape into the ocean.

For instance, the Larsen Ice Shelf has lost two large pieces into the ocean as a result of warming, with a third on the verge of cracking off.

Comment: Scientists have also discovered a large crack on the Larsen C ice shelf and thousands of blue lakes of melt water have formed on the surface of Antarctica's glaciers over the past decade. Yet a recent study indicates that the Antarctic peninsula has actually been cooling not warming. See also:

Antarctica, is it melting or not? Man-made global warming can't explain this climate paradox

https://www.sott.net/article/349126-Antarctica-is-melting-faster-than-originally-thought-new-study-finds
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Heavy Rain is causing Havoc in Ecuador!


video

Heavy Rain is causing Havoc in Ecuador!


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25th-26th April 2017

Hello to all my readers. I hope you are all safe and well. What I have here is todays geocentric view of our solar system. I have tried to extract from all this the most important aspects of today, and to see if this will give us some force for earthquakes. What we have here is our Saturn and Saturn is retrograde right now, still witin the range od being square with Venus. However this is a receeding aspect and therefore it has lost its sharpness which once had. More interesting is the Moon Saturn and the Uranus/Mercury combination for me. Mercury/Uranus Trine to Saturn has today the Moon to trigger. In about 7-8 hours (towards end of today the Moon will catch up with both and I think this will cause some unrest on earth. Moon will hit Uranus first and in no later than two hour it will tune to Mercury. So yes I expect some activity NOT strong like yesterday because the trine is not exact. Time will reveal all. Be Safe Be Good.



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Chile in Aftershocks.

A series of events accompany the major earthquake yesterday, of magnitude 6.9R in Chile.


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Two years since earthquake, reconstruction moves at snail’s pace.



NRA blames lack of trained workers, funding shortfall

Apr 25, 2017- On the eve of the second anniversary of the devastating April Earthquake, Asta Maya Dhoju, 45, was busy preparing cotton wicks for oil lamp before her makeshift shelter in Tekuchha, Bhaktapur on Monday.
Dhoju, who hails from Itachhe in the district, has been living in the hut with her family ever since her house was destroyed by the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015.
Though the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) claims that it is entirely focussed on expediting reconstruction, Dhoju’s family has yet to receive the first tranche for the house rebuilding aid.
The fate of the family of 65-year-old Krishna Laxmi Duwal at the Padma School area in Bhaktapur is no better. Despite frequently visiting municipal officials, her family has been unable to collect the first instalment of the reconstruction grants. “I don’t know how long we will have to wait to have our own house,” she told the Post in frustration.
The condition of the Dhoju and Duwal families depicts the sluggish pace of reconstruction of the earthquake-destroyed properties that leaves thousands of survivors homeless two years after the disaster.
According to the report made public by the NRA on Monday, the reconstruction of 22,234 houses has been over so far. It shows that out of the 626,695 families eligible for grants, only 543,606 have received the first tranche of Rs50,000. Among them, only 49,681 have started rebuilding their homes, which means 554,780 families who lost their houses in the quake have yet to begin construction works.
The Post Disaster Needs Assessment, prepared shortly after the disaster, had planned to complete the entire reconstruction works in five years. Health facilities, schools and individual houses were targeted to be rebuilt within two and three years, respectively. Though the deadline for reconstruction of the health facilities is nearly over, hardly 162 of the 628 facilities destroyed in the disaster have been rebuilt. The scenario of school rebuilding is even more pathetic. Out of the 7,923 schools that needed reconstruction, hardly 1,141, including those with temporary pre-fabricated structures, have been readied-- 85 percent school buildings await to be rebuilt.
The works at heritage sites, which are the major attraction for foreign tourists, have not gone much further too. Among the 750 structures of historical importance, 20 have been rebuilt while the reconstruction process for 90 others has just begun.
As many as 363 drinking water projects, among the 9,941 destroyed, have been repaired while the reconstruction of police posts, Army barracks and other government properties is negligible. Besides, the process to relocate 475 settlements that are vulnerable to disasters has yet to begin.
“We must admit that reconstruction has been slow,” Govind Raj Pokharel, chief executive officer of the NRA, told journalists on Monday. “We are learning by doing and trying to do our best.”
NRA officials blame the lack of trained human resource to be the main reason for the delay. Frequent protests, and resignation, by technicians are other factors that the Authority points to. It also claims that coordination between different government agencies and the need to revise various legal and procedural documents also contributed to the delays. The authority also complains of a funding shortfall.


http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2017-04-25/reconstruction-moves-at-snails-pace.html
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Chile earthquake: major quake strikes off coast but no tsunami expected

Authorities initially ordered a preventative evacuation of the coastal area near Valparaíso before quake of magnitude 7.1 hit 22 miles off of the west coast
A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.1 has struck off the west coast of Chile, rocking the capital Santiago and generating at least two significant aftershocks.
No major damage was immediately apparent, according to an assessment by Chile’s emergency services. The Chilean Navy and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said the quake was not expected to cause a tsunami.
The quake was centered 22 miles (35 km) west of the coastal city of Valparaíso at a shallow depth of 6.2 miles (10 km) below the seabed, the US Geological Survey said.
Chilean authorities initially ordered a preventative evacuation of the coastal area near Valparaiso, some 60 miles (97 km) west of Santiago, in case of a tsunami, but canceled it shortly afterward. Local residents reported panic on the streets of Valparaíso.
A magnitude 7.1 quake is considered major and is capable of causing widespread and heavy damage, but the effects of this one would have been tempered because it was offshore.
At least two aftershocks of magnitudes 5.0 and 5.4 were recorded in the same spot and could be felt in Santiago.
Chile, located on the so-called “Pacific Ring of Fire”, has a long history of deadly quakes, including a 8.8 magnitude quake in 2010 off the south-central coast, which also triggered a tsunami that devastated coastal towns.
That was the sixth-largest earthquake ever recorded, according to the USGS. The largest recorded temblor in history was also in Chile, a 9.5-magnitude quake in 1960.
A major 7.6 magnitude earthquake jolted southern Chile on Christmas Day 2016, prompting thousands to evacuate coastal areas, but no fatalities or major damage were reported in the tourism and salmon farming region.
The long, slender country runs along the border of two tectonic plates, with the Nazca Plate beneath the South Pacific Ocean pushing into the South America Plate, a phenomenon that also formed the Andes Mountains. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/24/major-earthquake-strikes-west-coast-chile)




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Monday, April 24, 2017

A 6.8R in Chile!


A very strong 6.8R has just been reported in Chile 128 km NW of Santiago, Chile / pop: 4,838,000 / local time: 18:38:27.5 2017-04-24 , 26 km NW of Valparaíso, Chile / pop: 283,000 / local time: 18:38:27.5 2017-04-24
No other news yet.



Magnitude

ML 6.8
RegionOFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Date time2017-04-24 21:38:27.5 UTC
Location32.91 S ; 71.86 W
Depth14 km
Distances128 km NW of Santiago, Chile / pop: 4,838,000 / local time: 18:38:27.5 2017-04-24
26 km NW of Valparaíso, Chile / pop: 283,000 / local time: 18:38:27.5 2017-04-24
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3.9R in Greece!

A  3.9R was registered in the location indicated in the map. The prediction seems to agree well as we can see below.


Magnitude

ML 3.9
RegionSOUTHERN GREECE
Date time2017-04-24 14:45:13.7 UTC
Location37.87 N ; 21.10 E
Depth19 km
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4.2R in NEPAL!!






A 4.2R came today in NEPAL. Below see our prediction calendar.

Magnitude


ML 4.2
RegionNEPAL
Date time2017-04-24 11:19:30.0 UTC
Location27.86 N ; 85.77 E
Depth10 km
Distances48 km E of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,443,000 / local time: 17:04:30.0 2017-04-24
20 km SW of Kodāri, Nepal / pop: 1,600 / local time: 17:04:30.0 2017-04-24
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Sun Today


Visible Sunspots facing Earth today.


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Neward neutron Monitor Triggers








The Newark Neutron Monitor Got excited today! I wonder....








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4.1R in the Gulf of CALIFORNIA<--As predicted

Early this morning we saw this 4.1R in the Gulf of California. See also the Events Calendar.



Magnitude

M 4.1
RegionGULF OF CALIFORNIA
Date time2017-04-24 00:15:50.0 UTC
Location26.65 N ; 110.96 W
Depth13 km
Distances712 km SW of Ciudad Juárez, Mexico / pop: 1,513,000 / local time: 18:15:50.0 2017-04-23
268 km S of Hermosillo, Mexico / pop: 596,000 / local time: 17:15:50.0 2017-04-23
80 km NE of Loreto, Mexico / pop: 11,300 / local time: 18:15:50.0 2017-04-23
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3.3R in Italy awakes past memories.



Raising concerns with the locals this small but felt eathquake of 3.3R came in just in Central Italy near Aquila.

Magnitude

ML 3.3
RegionCENTRAL ITALY
Date time2017-04-24 02:19:08.8 UTC
Location42.46 N ; 13.33 E
Depth12 km
Distances94 km NE of Roma, Italy / pop: 2,564,000 / local time: 04:19:08.8 2017-04-24
13 km NW of L’Aquila, Italy / pop: 68,600 / local time: 04:19:08.8 2017-04-24
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Sunday, April 23, 2017

6.0R in Chile!


This has come a day earlier than expected from the Chile prediction Calendars. A very strong 6.0R in Chile!

Magnitude

Mw 6.0
RegionOFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Date time2017-04-23 02:36:07.2 UTC
Location33.02 S ; 71.95 W
Depth20 km
Distances131 km W of Santiago, Chile / pop: 4,838,000 / local time: 23:36:07.2 2017-04-22
30 km W of Valparaíso, Chile / pop: 283,000 / local time: 23:36:07.2 2017-04-22
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Saturday, April 22, 2017

Moon Phase today


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Schumann Resonances today.





Schumann resonance slowly rise, but the spikes indicate that we may get some medium earthquakes by late tonight.


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Solar Wind today.


Since yesterday, solar winds have risen to over 750km/s, amazing highs. with a drop in density.


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Sunspots and Kp Index


The sun today, 22April 2017, where we can see the Sunspot regions 2651 and 2653.
:Solar_Region_Summary: 2017 Apr 21
# Region   Location         Sunspot Characteristics
#           Helio                      Spot  Spot  Mag.
# Num   Lat.,CMD  Long.  Area  Extent  class count class
 2651    N12E30     71    130     5     CAO    7      B
 2652    N13E45     56     10     1     HRX    1      A
 2653    S09E82     19     40     2     HAX    1      A
A - Alpha (single polarity spot).

B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).

G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).

BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).

D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).

BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.

BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration. 



A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm is currently in progress thanks to a high speed solar wind stream above 700 km/s. More storming is expected over the next several days as a coronal hole stream rattles our geomagnetic field. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visible aurora during the next several nights.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2017 Apr 22 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate






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GOES Magnetometer falls from highs.


Todays Magnetic disturbances are shown in the behaviour of the GOES Magnetometer which has registered a fall from 150 to below 50nT. This should trigger some nice events within days.

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Friday, April 21, 2017

5.0R in Turkey!


Two 5.0R events this afternoon in Western Turkey. Those events are late, as we were expecting them two days ago. See our post here. Our expected coordinates were Turkey (37.2N, 28.6E) not bad !

Magnitude

mb 5.0
RegionWESTERN TURKEY
Date time2017-04-21 13:09:21.4 UTC
Location38.79 N ; 29.05 E
Depth6 km
Distances156 km S of Bursa, Turkey / pop: 1,413,000 / local time: 16:09:21.4 2017-04-21
34 km NW of Uşak, Turkey / pop: 153,000 / local time: 16:09:21.4 2017-04-21
17 km E of Selendi, Turkey / pop: 8,800 / local time: 16:09:21.4 2017-04-21
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