Sunday, March 4, 2018

6.0R in Papua New Guinea

A 6.0R earthquake looks like a powerful aftershock was registered in PNG this afternoon, in the region where we had a major 7.5R recently. We were expecting today and tomorrow some strong events globally, as can be seen by the calendar below. Could this be the one? Time will tell.


Mw 6.0
Date time2018-03-04 14:33:24.0 UTC
Location6.02 S ; 142.81 E
Depth30 km
Distances613 km NW of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 00:33:24.0 2018-03-05
95 km W of Mendi, Papua New Guinea / pop: 26,300 / local time: 00:33:24.0 2018-03-05
75 km SW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea / pop: 1,600 / local time: 00:33:24.0 2018-03-05
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Saturday, March 3, 2018

Global:FDL- Method, March 2018.

Based on our published reseach technique, we here apply it as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of earthquakes.
In the following diagram we can see Global Earthquake predictions for March 2018. This means earthquakes of >6R somewhere in the world. No specific location. ....Note that you should also cross check this chart with our LOCAL PREDICTIONS if you wish to home in further on the earthquake location. Furthermore you also must consider the planetary alignment posts we do We do many countries and if there is enough requests we may do others too.   Finally we will also issue soon the Monthly EarthquakePrediction Bulletin.
For this period we observe that there is a HIGH* probability to have an earthquake >6R somewhere in the world on 4th, 11th, 16th and 27th and 30th March 2018  and smaller in other dates as shown below:  (Note the scales are not Richeter nor logarithmic).

The probability Scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%) MEDIUM (40-60%) and HIGH (>60%)

You can read our methodology here
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Friday, March 2, 2018

'People are slowly dying': PNG earthquake sparks state of emergency

Nearly five days after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck Papua New Guinea, the worst-hit regions remained largely cut off on Friday, with aid only just starting to arrive in some affected areas and the government declaring a state of emergency.
The Red Cross estimated an initial 2000 people were in urgent need of emergency supplies, while Reuters reported that the death toll had climbed to 31 and would probably rise further.

A state of emergency was declared in the provinces of Southern and Western Highlands, Hela and Enga, allowing extra funding to be released by neighbouring countries and aid organisations including the Red Cross.
While the region has no major urban centres, around 670,000 people live within 100km of the epicentre, according to the Red Cross.

Most of the other confirmed fatalities were in or around the provincial capital of Mendi and the town of Tari, 40km from the epicentre, where airports were closed and relief workers were yet to arrive on Friday.
“Our people live in scattered hamlets and people are dying slowly – the only means of rescue is through helicopters and they are hardly coming,” Hela province’s administrator, William Bando, said from his office in a shipping container in Tari.
The PNG prime minister, Peter O’Neill, called the earthquake “an unprecedented disaster” and said his government had released funding to restore essential public services such as healthcare, schools, roads, airports, power and communications.
Damage to a road near Mendi in Papua New Guinea’s highlands region.
Damage to a road near Mendi in Papua New Guinea’s highlands region. Photograph: Melvin Levongo/AFP/Getty Images

“Cabinet has further approved the establishment of a restoration authority that will manage long-term reconstruction efforts over a four-year period to fully restore normalcy,” O’Neill said.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said it had recorded large landslips between Mount Hagen and Mendi, and the two main health facilities in the region had sustained quake damage.
Access to clean water was scarce, and power and communications damage was widespread, with aftershocks expected to continue for weeks.
“The strong, shallow earthquake damaged or destroyed communication networks and infrastructure, so there is limited information on how people were affected and what they need,” said Udaya Regmi, head of the Red Cross in PNG.
“The situation is risky for people in need as well as for staff and volunteers. We are ... working to get more clarity on the situation on the ground.”
Read more..

NEPAL: March 2018 --- FDL Method

Based on our published FDL research techniques, we here apply them as a systematic predicting tool for determining the dates of earthquakes. Our methods are experimental and we test them in real time.
Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the dates shown in the charts.

In the following diagram we can see Nepal Earthquake Predictions for the period of March 2018.

For this period we observe that there is a High* probability to have an earthquake of about 4R in Nepal on 16th, 25th and 29th March  2018 other dates are possible and you can see their relative significance from the calendar below:

The probability scales are as follows:
*SMALL (<40%), MEDIUM (40-60%), and HIGH (>60%)

You can read about our methodology here.

Read more..

4.6R in NEPAL

A 4.6R earthequake was registered this morning in Nepal, 40km from Mamche Bazar. We have no other news about it.


M 4.6
Date time2018-03-02 05:06:30.0 UTC
Location27.70 N ; 86.33 E
Depth10 km
Distances100 km E of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,443,000 / local time: 10:51:30.0 2018-03-02
40 km W of Nāmche Bāzār, Nepal / pop: 2,400 / local time: 10:51:30.0 2018-03-02
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Sunday, February 25, 2018

6R+ events this year

The chart above shows the location of >6R events this year and some simple relations between them

Read more..

5.0R in Taiwan

Just reported a 5.0R in Taiwan. No further news about this event yet.


mb 5.0
Date time2018-02-25 18:28:39.5 UTC
Location24.41 N ; 122.09 E
Depth15 km
Distances90 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 7,872,000 / local time: 02:28:39.5 2018-02-26
51 km SE of Yilan, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 94,200 / local time: 02:28:39.5 2018-02-26
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7.5R in Papua New GUINEA --- As expected

A powerful punch of 7.5R has just struck in Papua New Guinea. As we can see from the Global Calendar below today is a hot day, as Mars is square Venus.
The 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck the heart of the island near the near the Southern Highlands area, with tremors felt across the nearby region.
The phenomenon hit at a depth of 10km at roughly 4am local time (6pm GMT).
It is currently unclea rif any damage or injuries were cause by the substantial siesmic event.
Papua New Ginuea rests on the so-called 'Ring of Fire' – a hotbed of seismic activity surrounding a tectonic plate that spans the pacific.
The quake follows another seismic event in Japan, where a 5.5 magintude earthquake struck just hours before.
Despite the magintude of the huge quake, officials have confirmed there is no risk of a resultant tsunami.
A statement from the US’ Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said: “An Earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.6 occurred in New Guinea, Papua New Guinea at 1745 UTC on Sunday February 25, 2018.
“Based on all available data, there is no Tsunami threat from this earthquake."


Mw 7.5
Date time2018-02-25 17:44:44.2 UTC
Location6.08 S ; 142.79 E
Depth30 km
Distances611 km NW of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea / pop: 284,000 / local time: 03:44:44.2 2018-02-26
96 km W of Mendi, Papua New Guinea / pop: 26,300 / local time: 03:44:44.2 2018-02-26
82 km SW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea / pop: 1,600 / local time: 03:44:44.2 2018-02-26
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4.8R in Southern IRAN --As Predicted

A 4.8R earthquake has struck Southern Iran just minutes ago. The calendar below shows clearly the peak for today's event in Iran.


mb 4.8
Date time2018-02-25 16:36:01.0 UTC
Location27.55 N ; 52.46 E
Depth5 km
Distances228 km S of Shīrāz, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 1,250,000 / local time: 20:06:01.0 2018-02-25
144 km S of Fīrūzābād, Iran, Islamic Republic of / pop: 66,600 / local time: 20:06:01.0 2018-02-25

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5.6R in Honshu, Japan!

A 5.6R earthquake has just been reported near the East Coast of Honshu, JAPAN


mb 5.6
Date time2018-02-25 16:28:42.9 UTC
Location37.59 N ; 141.66 E
Depth60 km
Distances102 km SE of Sendai-shi, Japan / pop: 1,038,000 / local time: 01:28:42.9 2018-02-26
60 km E of Namie, Japan / pop: 21,900 / local time: 01:28:42.9 2018-02-26
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4.5R in Greece

As predicted  we expected this increase in activity in the Greece Region over this period. Sure enough here it comes this 4.5R earthquake near the island of Chios in the Aegean Sea.


mb 4.5
Date time2018-02-25 15:21:13.9 UTC
Location38.59 N ; 25.59 E
Depth8 km
Distances136 km W of İzmir, Turkey / pop: 2,501,000 / local time: 18:21:13.9 2018-02-25
102 km SW of Mytilíni, Greece / pop: 28,400 / local time: 17:21:13.9 2018-02-25
54 km NW of Chíos, Greece / pop: 24,000 / local time: 17:21:13.9 2018-02-25
48 km W of Lagkáda, Greece / pop: 1,100 / local time: 17:21:13.9 2018-02-25
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Saturday, February 24, 2018

4.2R in South of Greece

The expected rise in siesmic activity (according to FDL) is seen here below, peaking tomorrow. This 4.2R earthquake in the deep sea, seems to comply with the predictions.


mb 4.2
Date time2018-02-24 07:51:49.1 UTC
Location36.32 N ; 22.17 E
Depth62 km
Distances230 km SW of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 09:51:49.1 2018-02-24
133 km S of Trípoli, Greece / pop: 26,600 / local time: 09:51:49.1 2018-02-24
80 km S of Kalamáta, Greece / pop: 51,200 / local time: 09:51:49.1 2018-02-24
57 km S of Koróni, Greece / pop: 1,700 / local time: 09:51:49.1 2018-02-24
Read more..

All Shook Up: When Will the 'Big One' Strike Beijing?

On February 12, a small earthquake shook Beijing. Although quakes are far less common in northeastern China compared to the southwest, the tremor has once again raised the question: How likely is it that the 'Big One' could strike China’s capital?
The epicenter of the recent earthquake was in Langfang City in Hebei, roughly 60km from Beijing. It measured a mere 4.3 on the Richter scale, meaning it went unnoticed by many in downtown Beijing and caused no damage. Even still, it was significant enough to be felt in the capital and cause some of the city's high rises to sway.
Although the Langfang earthquake seems inconsequential, it is a reminder that Beijing is located on an active seismic zone. As history shows, the capital – and nearby cities like Tianjin – is definitely not immune from the Big One.
History shows that both Beijing and Tianjin have been rocked by major quakes
In 1679, the Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake struck 50km east of the Forbidden City, in what is now Hebei. The estimated 8.0-magnitude quake leveled numerous cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and is believed to have killed 45,500 people in the region, according to a study by Risk Management Solutions, Inc (RMS). In the capital, Pinggu and Tongzhou were in ruins, and historical landmarks such as the White Pagoda and Desheng Gate were either damaged or reduced to rubble.
In 1976, the Tangshan earthquake (in Hebei) killed over 240,000 people and destroyed more than two million houses (exact numbers are still unknown). The 7.8-magnitude earthquake remains the third deadliest in history, Los Angeles Times reports. Its epicenter was just 140km east of Beijing – close enough to rattle the capital.
Tangshan in ruins
In the aftermath of what has become dubbed ‘The Great Tangshan Earthquake,’ many wondered whether Beijing was susceptible to a similar disaster.
After all, Beijing does sit on one of the most highly active seismic zones in the world. The Xiadian Fault – which begins in northern Beijing and passes right by Pinggu and Sanhe in Hebei – does pose a direct threat to the Greater Beijing area. This is the same fault that ruptured during the deadly Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake in 1679. 
Because China is so prone to devastating earthquakes, the nation established the Chinese Earthquake Administration in 1971 to monitor seismic activity, create warning systems and improve response and recovery operations in case of disaster. Chinese scientists have also spent decades attempting to figure out how to predict earthquakes – though this has yet to be achieved.
Some earthquake-prone cities in China – like Beijing – have taken drastic measures to prepare for major earthquakes. Old buildings have been retrofitted, new buildings have been forced to comply with building codes and warning systems have been put in place. Yet other Chinese cities haven't been quite as proactive, which is part of the reason earthquakes in China have been so damaging, The Atlantic reports.

When it comes to earthquake preparedness, China still has a long way to go. In Beijing and its surrounding regions, an earthquake warning system wasn’t established until 2015. And an official national building code won’t be finalized until 2020, Los Angeles Times reports. Even then, many wonder if these codes will be properly implemented to effectively reduce the destruction and casualties of a major earthquake.
As far as the Big One goes, Beijing is likely in the clear for now. Because of the seismic cycle of the Xiadian Fault, on which the capital lies, an earthquake of the caliber of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu quake is estimated to occur every 6,500 years. That being said, there’s no way to actually predict when or if the Big One will ever strike Beijing.
Read more..

Thursday, February 22, 2018

5.0R in Taiwan

A 5.0R earthquake was reported in Taiwan at the location shown in the map above.

MagnitudeMw 5.0
Date time2018-02-21 23:10:40.5 UTC
Location23.40 N ; 121.65 E
Depth30 km
Distances129 km SE of Taichung, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 1,041,000 / local time: 07:10:40.5 2018-02-22
64 km S of Hualian, Taiwan, Province of China / pop: 351,000 / local time: 07:10:40.5

Read more..

5.0R in Ionian Sea, Greece

A 5.0R earthquake was reported in Greece, in the Ionian Sea, 40km from Argostolion

Magnitudemb 5.0
Date time2018-02-21 23:44:56.5 UTC
Location37.83 N ; 20.38 E
Depth14 km
Distances294 km W of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 01:44:56.5 2018-02-22
127 km W of Pátra, Greece / pop: 164,000 / local time: 01:44:56.5 2018-02-22
40 km S of Argostólion, Greece / pop: 9,900 / local time: 01:44:56.5 2018-02-22
34 km W of Katastárion, Greece / pop: 1,400 / local time: 01:44:56.5 2018-02-22

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4.8R in Bulgaria

A strong 4.8 R earthquake has been reported a few minutes ago in Bulgaria.

Magnitudemb 4.8
Date time2018-02-21 23:41:59.4 UTC
Location42.03 N ; 24.88 E
Depth10 km
Distances148 km SE of Sofia, Bulgaria / pop: 1,153,000 / local time: 01:41:59.4 2018-02-22
17 km SE of Plovdiv, Bulgaria / pop: 341,000 / local time: 01:41:59.4 2018-02-22
2 km NE of Asenovgrad, Bulgaria / pop: 52,200 / local time: 01:41:59.4 2018-02-22

Read more..

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

4.3R in Greece

A 4.3R in Aegean Sea close to the land as can be seen from the map.

Magnitudemb 4.3
Date time2018-02-20 03:52:53.3 UTC
Location39.27 N ; 23.89 E
Depth12 km
Distances144 km N of Athens, Greece / pop: 730,000 / local time: 05:52:53.3 2018-02-20
82 km E of Vólos, Greece / pop: 84,500 / local time: 05:52:53.3 2018-02-20
13 km N of Patitírion, Greece / pop: 1,700 / local time: 05:52:53.3 2018-02-20

Read more..

Sunday, February 18, 2018

13 killed as helicopter on earthquake mission flips, crashes on them

Mexico City – A military helicopter carrying officials who were assessing damage from a powerful earthquake flipped as it was attempting to land in southern Mexico, crashing on top of people who had fled their homes and were spending the night outside.
Thirteen people were killed – the only known fatalities related to the quake – and 16 were injured.
No one aboard the helicopter, including Interior Secretary Alfonso Navarrete and Oaxaca Gov. Alejandro Murat, was seriously hurt.
Jorge Morales, a local reporter who was aboard the helicopter when it crashed on Friday night, described harrowing moments as the pilot lost control and the helicopter attempted to touch down in a swirl of dust in Jamiltepec, a city in Oaxaca state close to the epicentre of the earthquake that struck earlier on Friday.
"The moment the helicopter touched down it lost control, it slid – like it skidded – and it hit some vehicles that were parked alongside the area that had been defined for the landing," Morales told a Mexican television news program.
"In that moment, you couldn't see anything, nothing else was heard beside the sound that iron makes when it scrapes the earth."
Victims were waiting for helicopter
Navarrete told local media that "as the army helicopter we were travelling in tried to land, the pilot lost control, the helicopter fell and flipped".
A state government official, who was not authorised to be quoted by name, said the chopper crashed into a group of people who had been spending the night outside after the 7.2 magnitude earthquake hit the area.
Aftershocks, including one of 5.8 magnitude that struck about an hour after the first, had caused people to flee their homes for fear they would collapse.
The Oaxaca state prosecutor's office said in a statement that five women, four men and three children were killed at the crash site and another person died later at a hospital.
The defence department said the Blackhawk helicopter crashed as it was preparing to land in a vacant lot. The department said the victims had been waiting for the helicopter, but did not provide more details.
Navarrete and the defence department said they regretted the loss of life.
Minimal quake damage
The quake damaged about 50 homes in Jamiltepec, as well as the town hall and church, according to the Interior Department. It also rocked buildings in Mexico City, and many other parts of the country.
But the damage was minimal compared to a massive 8.2 quake that struck in the same general area on September 7, and a 7.1 magnitude quake on September 19, which killed a total of 471 people between the two of them and damaged over 180 000 houses in eight states, including Mexico City.
The US Geological Survey said Friday's quake was centred 53km northeast of Pinotepa in southern Oaxaca state and had a depth of 24km.
Two people suffered fractures caused by the quake and were treated in Pinotepa Nacional. Their lives were not in danger.
Navarrete has led the Interior Department, which oversees most political and security issues, for little over a month.
Earlier this month, an intelligence agent from an agency overseen by Navarrete's department was caught tailing an opposition presidential candidate.
Read more..

Saturday, February 17, 2018

GREAT BRITISH QUAKE OFF Where was the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the UK and are they very common?

People across the south-west of England and Wales say they felt tremors this afternoon - and earthquakes in Britain are more common than you'd think
BIG earthquakes in the UK are thankfully a pretty rare phenomenon, but they do happen.
Hundreds of tiny tremors - too minor to be felt or cause any damage - actually hit Britain every year- and people across the south-west of England and Wales say they felt tremors this afternoon.

When and where was the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the UK?

But some of the quakes have been much stronger, causing serious damage and even death.
The largest known British earthquake occurred in the North Sea, near the Dogger Bank in 1931, with a magnitude of 6.1.
It was 60 miles offshore but still powerful enough to cause minor damage to buildings on the east coast of England.

Getty Images5
An elderly woman is helped from her home through rubble after an earthquake in Folkestone in April 2007, measuring 4.3 on the Richter scale.

 An elderly woman is helped from her home through rubble after an earthquake in Folkestone in April 2007, measuring 4.3 on the Richter scale.
While many of the stronger quakes in the UK are under the sea, like the earthquake which has hit 100 miles off Scarborough in January, some do happen on land.
An earthquake hit Swansea this afternoon with early indications of a magnitude of 4.2.
The most damaging UK earthquake was in the Colchester area in 1884, in which several people were killed and shockwaves were felt as far away as the Houses of Parliament.

How often do earthquakes happen in the UK?

While hundreds of quakes actually happen here every year, only around 10 are strong enough to be felt at all - and many of these are very minor.

 Most of the stronger earthquakes in the UK cause minimal damage - like this chimney stack in the Folkestone quake in 2007
News Group Newspapers Ltd5
Most of the stronger earthquakes in the UK cause minimal damage - like this chimney stack in the Folkestone quake in 2007
A magnitude 4 earthquake - strong enough to be felt but causing minimal damage - happens in Britain roughly every two years.
We experience a magnitude 5 - which can damage buildings - roughly every 10–20 years.
Research estimate that the largest possible earthquake in the UK is around 6.5, strong enough to destroy homes.

How likely is an earthquake in the UK?

According to experts, there are "super deep" fault lines below the Home Counties linked to the San Andreas Fault which causes huge quakes in California.

 Damage to the roof in another bedroom in Wombwell, Barnsley, after the quake in February 2008
Damage to the roof in another bedroom in Wombwell, Barnsley, after the quake in February 2008
Some claim the UK is at an ever-growing risk of a big earthquake, with seismologists believing there may have been big quakes in Britain at some time.
Reports say the regions most at risk are Kent and the Home Counties, Essex, and Scotland - thanks to a major plate tectonic boundary between the Eurasian plate and the African plate.
In 2015, a quake measuring 4.2 hit Sandwich in Kent, with shockwaves felt as far away as Norwich 1oo miles away.

Where do quakes in the UK occur?

Most earthquakes occur on the western side of the British mainland, and there are hardly any in eastern Scotland and north east England or Ireland.

 Roof tiles torn off after the earthquake in Barnsley in 2008 - one of the strongest quakes in our recent history
Alamy 5
Roof tiles torn off after the earthquake in Barnsley in 2008 - one of the strongest quakes in our recent history
But the North Sea is an earthquake hot spot, as well as the Llyn peninsula in Gwynedd, North Wales.
Llyn was the location for the largest recorded onshore quake in the UK on July 19 1984, when a 5.4 magnitude tremor damaged buildings and injured several.
Two smaller quakes – measuring magnitudes of 4.0 and 4.3 – rocked the area in the following weeks.
According to the British Geological Survey, other areas hit by big tremors include Kintail in the north-west Highlands, Folkestone, Melton Mowbray and Longtown in Cumbria.
Read more..