Sunday, September 9, 2018

NEPAL A Review

We have had a number of readers requesting to produce a review of the earthquake events in Nepal. In response to this we post this brief, which we hope to throw a bit of light on the situation.Without further ado here is our brief account.

How many earthquakes we have had over the last few months? According to the National Siesmological Center  of Nepal? Only ONE 5R earthquake was reported this year, on 2018-06-28 Local:09:52 in Dhading. This means so far Nepal has had an easy time, just as well. The last earthquake recorded was on  2018-08-29 in Sankhuwasabha, of magnitude 4.2R, that is about 11 days ago. We have had no earthquakes yet in September.  Over the last 2 months we can see the earthquakes recored on the map below, According to the National Siesmological Center  of Nepal.



Note that we normally keep an eye on EMSC, an excellent web site for real time events, but we have observed that on many occasions they do not report some events in Nepal. I do not know the reason, I simply state that sometimes people from Nepal inform me of an event, when EMSC does not and when we do not have time to check daily on the web site of the National Siesmological Center  of Nepal. Just as well, and please keep an eye so as we register the events.
 The events this year according to EMSC are shown on the next map below.



So this is the history of events this year. Now let us look at some of the Plot of Daily Mean Composite Anomalies of variables from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and other datasets. We have created an animation of them dated from 30th August 2018 to the last data we can get hold of, 5th September 2018. This can be seen below. It helps us see stress areas and for example on 4th September we see a lot of changes in short space over Nepal. When the lines are dense there we expect to be stressy and therefore more likely to give in. So, it has been since the 4th Sept. only 5 days without an event.


Finally let us look at FDL, our method. Well you have already the results published in the blog. Below is a copy, where we see the 'suspect' period is from 10th-13th September according to FDL.
 
In my experience it ties well with the measurements displayed in the Anomalies animation chart above. So we still think that there is a good possibility of an event between 10th and 13th September, probably a small event, less than 5R. Time will tell.


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