Saturday, September 2, 2017

Kp Index 5


Over the past 24 hours solar activity remained low. A fourth sunspot region
has emerged and did not show any signature of flaring activity. The other
regions are relatively stable, Catania group 43 (NOAA region 2672) and
Catania group 47 (NOAA region 2674) produced only B-class flares and narrow
not earth-directed CMEs. We expect the solar activity to remain low with a
probability of very few sporadic C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the
available coronagraph imagery and the solar protons remains at background

Since yesterday, August 31 around 5:00 UT, the Earth is inside the fast
solar wind with the speed ranging between 500 and 700 km/s. Over the past
24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 11 nT
with the Bz component fluctuating between -5 and 5 nT.

The geomagnetic conditions were active with a moderate storm (K-Dourbes=6,
Kp-NOAA = 5) on August 31 around 10:00 UT, following shortly after by
unsettled conditions (K-Dourbes=3) to even lower level (K-Dourbes=2)
between September 1, 5:00 and 9:00 UT. Currently, K-Dourbes has raised to
level 4. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to fluctuated between
unsettled to active conditions for the next 48 h and until the high speed
stream has finished. 
A CME was directed to the west and a glancing blow at the Earth on
September 2 without important geomagnetic consequences is possible,
although not likely. The faint and slow CME was observed on August 28
(first seen at 17:12 UT on LASCO-C2), originating from Catania group 43
(NOAA region 2672), which was located at 30 degrees west from central
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