Friday, December 9, 2016

Some statistics of 8R earthquakes

Since there is a lot of talk about strong earthquakes, let me give you some basics based purely on numbers, on what has happened before, which of course is what we have seen and observed.

  • We have had about 89 earthquakes of magnitude greater than 8R since year 1900.

In above plot we have the magnitude of the earthquakes against time, from 1900 to today.
  • We have been getting one every year since 2004 missing only one in 2010, and only in 2009 and 2012 we got a double recently.
  • In all 89 earthquakes, the time difference between successive 8R+ earthquakes we have had was less than month ONLY for 10% of the events. IF we look at it from a chance point of view, and (if we consider the Solomon Island one 8R which it turned out to be smaller), the chance is only 10% to get a second in one month period, somehwere in the globe provided a 8R event took place..
  • We have had 450 days since the last 8R earthquake, (Today=9th-Dec-2016)

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