Sunday, September 25, 2016

NEPAL: Analysis Report for 27th September 2016.

To all my dear friends and readers from Nepal, it is this time of month again to release another brief report about possible vulnerability in your region covering 26-28th September 2016. The prediction date is for 27th September, but as you know it is possible to have +or - one day so we cover from 26th to 28th for safety. I would also like to remind my readers that predicting Nepal has not been easy and often it is not turning out as predicted. Last time we got the location right but the date was off by a day. So this is not a cause to panic but to be cautious JUST IN CASE things turn up as our method instructs us. So having said this, let us proceed.
The map above is the master map, and all maps below are illustrative of what is going on above. You can see eight regions encircled, the possible regions our method has isolated. Again I remind you this is using JUST our method and others may disagree. So, You can see Regions A to H. The region probably most vulnerable is A in my understanding near Kathmandu.
The following map shows TWO regions with the approx. coordinates for possible most vulnerable locations near Kathmandu, (that is  label Region A -slightly South of Kathmandu-in the master map). This region A is in my humble opinion the most dangerous and likely for the day. The other regions perhaps not so likely. We will see.

Below we see Regions B,C, and D, with their coordinates and they are further West of Kathmandu.

Below is the map around Region E, East of Kathmandu with co-ordinates (27.59N, 86.08E), another possible location.

Also location F, East of kathmandu,  is shown below (27.59N, 86.52E)
Also locations G and H, North West of Kathmandu,  is shown below (29.56N, 82.22E) and (29.56N, 83.13E)

So let us summarise:

WHEN: 27th September 2016 (Note +-1 day)
1) 27.59N, 85.15E    Region A on map
2) 27.59N, 85.2E      Region A on map
3)  27.59N, 84.21E   Region B on map
4) 27.59N, 83.38E   Region C on map
5) 27.59N, 83.13E   Region D on map
6)  27.59N, 86.08E   Region E on map
7) 27.59N, 86.52E   Region F on map
8) 29.56N, 82.22E   Region G on map
9) 29.56N, 83.13E   Region H on map

TIME: The question is, if it happens on 27th, what time would it be possible?
Region A, events 1) and 2) above, we estimate 02:38 GMT OR 20:13GMT
Region B event 3) we have no estimate for this, but it is less likely.
Region C event 4) estimated at  10:38 GMT
Region D event 5) estimated at  09:52 GMT
Region E event 6) estimated at  01:30 GMT
Region F event 7) probably not going to happen we have no specific time.
Region G event 8) probably not going to happen we have no specific time.
Region H event 9) estimated at  09:52 GMT

MAGNITUDE: Again we think about 5R is possible.

Be Safe Be Good!

FIRST: Cloud evedence.
Below we see the clouds scene near Kathmandu on 15th September, a clear day with cloud abnormalities along and around Kathmandu.

SECOND: TEC Rate swings. If we see the animation below which we posted here on 15th September, we see a huge negative over NEPAL at 12:30GMT

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1 comment :

  1. Its 29th now nothing is going here. Except the weather its too cloudy(rain as well) here. Which was not supposed to be at this season.