Saturday, July 9, 2016

NEPAL thoughts for the near term

The purpose of this brief note is to say a few words to my readers who are interested in NEPAL events over the next few days up to the 11th July. As those who follow know, my method expects some event in Nepal on July 11th. See Nepal earthquake calendar. In order to quantify this further, extra work needs to be done to try to find ways to 'home in the events'. In doing so this time I find this to be very unusual. The reason is that it seems it would like to give 2 to 3 events for this day!! It is not very clear yet as this is unusual but I will cover my thoughts and try to be as precise as I can. Before I do so, it seems to me reasonable from experience the more events we get in a day it means that the magnitude of the earthquakes is smaller. If you get one it maybe stronger than if you get 2 or 3. So it seems in this case we should get what I call dispersion of the energy, which is good provided the smaller events are not in populated areas.
  • So I expect 2 and possible 3 events.
  • The events should be WEST and NORTH of Kathmandu. 
  • They should occur in the morning of the 11th July.

So let us now try to unfold the details for the 11th July.

WHERE &WHEN: Location coordinates

1) (28.42N 83.56E)  When: 02:00 GMT (Region Beni)  (BLUE on the map)
2) (28.42N 83.56E)  When: 02:15 GMT   (Region Chharka)  (REDon the map)
Possibly also a third at
3)  (28.42N 84E) When: 02:31 GMT  (Region Pokara)  (GREENon the map)

HOW STRONG: I exprect 4-4.4R if we get multiples...

Last time I posted for Nepal it came late and if this happens again, it could happen on 12th July in the same locations, in the morning hours. So...

Be Safe Be Good!

You can read our methodology here.

You may also like:


  1. Small earthquakes, there's nothing to be afraid of small earthquakes. A bigger one is due, that's what we are afraid of