Saturday, July 23, 2016

NEPAL: Thoughts for 28th July 2016

NEPAL is due for an earthquake on 28th July, according to the Nepal July Earthquake Calendar. The peak on the calendar on that date is strong indicating a stroner possibility for a larger earthquake.

In an effort to clarify this we have to go deeper as follows:

1. Our analysis for this day shows that 2 or even 3 (very unusual) events are possible.
This time we did an extra check using anotherresearchers work, Leonid Doda, on clouds. So we have what we think a kind of affirmation, but of course nothing is certain and I am trying to restrain as I have been wrong before. So we have to be careful.

 The map above shows ALL possible locations from which I filter out the more likely ones. (ONE DAY IT WILL BE AUTOMATIC, but for now it is manual :(  ).
When I see a map like this, and we see a clustering of data and we can see threes there, then chances are higher that something will give in there.

 When we do some  of the filtering we get...

In this map we get three goups A, B and C.
We expect therefore 2 or 3 events. not so easy to choose I am afraid. Not yet.
However, possible event A is strong, events B cluster, as well as C. So at this stage as I am short of time, I will leave them all, time them and let the earth moan and grown and tell us what she wants to let us have.

OK So we have:
DATE: 28th July 2016
CO-ORDINATES:         A:  (28.57N, 81.25E) ,   B: (28.07N, 84.12E) or (28.07N, 84.3E) or
                                         (28.07N, 84.5E)
                                         C: (27.4N, 86.23E) or (27.4N, 86.35E)

They correpond to the nearby regions of: For A-->Chisapani, B-->Thaprek, Satiswara, and Amppipal,  and for C--->Duragaun and Khiji Chandeshwori

TIMES: For A; 03:44 GMT,  B: 09:00GMT or 09:35GMT or 23:00GMT  and for C: 12:14GMT or

I would repeat that the times can go wrong especially if the event triggers are wrongly chosen by me.

SO.... finally the magnitude.

MAGNITUDE: I expect at least TWO 5.0R or less a little if we have doubles. 4.5-5.0R

 Finally I include my friends Leonid Doda's method which also shows to me a possible double event. We can event try to work out the magnitudes, but I dont want to scare you, just to show you how hard it is to do what we do, it takes time, and often we are wrong before we improve.

Time will tell, I hope nothing happens that I am wrong and you are all safe. Just in case, if you can be a little just a little more careful on the day, as you people live in plates junction and the earth moves a lot.
No need to panic, a little caution and life goes on.

Be Safe, Be Good, God Bless!

You can read our methodology here

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