Saturday, August 19, 2017

Solar Data Today

Our planet is under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) which is causing isolated periods of G1 - Minor geomagnetic storming over the past 2 days, August 17 and 18, 2017. Meanwhile, solar activity is very low. There is only one numbered active region on the Earth-side of the Sun and it's only showing B-class activity.
Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels due to electron redistribution associated with CIR arrival and CH HSS onset. It is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on August 18 and increase to moderate to high levels due to continued CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain like that over the next three days.
Solar wind parameters were indicative of CH HSS influences. Solar wind speeds increased to maximum speeds averaging near 600 km/s. Total field strength underwent a steady decreasing trend, from values near 10 nT to 6 nT. The Bz component settled to +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was positive.
Solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced during the next three days (August 18 - 20).

Below we see the Kp indices data in the G1/G2 levels.

 The GOES Magnetometer data shown below, shows another dive to under 50nT, showing the unsettled next few dwe should be experiencing here.
Below is the 3-day forecast from SWPC NOAA
:Product: 3-Day Forecast from swpc.noaa
:Issued: 2017 Aug 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

            Aug 19     Aug 20     Aug 21
00-03UT        4          4          4     
03-06UT        4          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          3          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Unsettled to active levels are expected for the forecast period (19-21
Aug) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

              Aug 19  Aug 20  Aug 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

              Aug 19        Aug 20        Aug 21
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the forecast period (19-21 Aug).

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