Wednesday, November 2, 2016

TONGA: Earthquake Predictions for November 2016

It is the first time to our knowledge that a published research-based technique is used as a systematic predicting tool for earthquakes. Our methods are experimental hence we test them in real time and we will be publishing our predictions regularly. Please note the disclaimer at the end. We expect an accuracy for the prediction of +-1 day from the peak dates in the charts

In the following diagram we can see for TONGA the Earthquake predictions for November 2016.

For this period we observe that there is a MEDIUM*- probability to have an earthquake about >4.5 R in the region of TONGA on 2nd, 11th, 19th 25th and 30th November and smaller on other dates as shown below:

The probability Scales are as follows: *SMALL (<40%) MEDIUM (40-60%) and HIGH (>60%)

You can read our methodology here

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1 comment :

  1. Magnitude mb 4.8
    Date time 2016-11-02 09:02:10.6 UTC
    Location 18.63 S ; 172.89 W
    Depth 35 km
    Distances 368 km NE of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga / pop: 22,400 / local time: 22:02:10.6 2016-11-02
    115 km E of Neiafu, Tonga / pop: 4,400 / local time: 22:02:10.6 2016-11-02