Friday, June 3, 2016

4.4R in NEPAL --->Postmortem

Here is what we said, and here is what came, and how well and how badly we did.

We said                                                                         Result
NEPAL                                                                         OK
4) (28N  85.16)   (Red on the map far right)                  27.96N 85.62E    the difference is less than 0.5 degrees in one coordinate
There is plenty to say about this but it gets too technical. Not too bad for now....

We said                                                                         Result
no more than 4.5R                                                          4.4R
This is acceptable.

We said                                                                         Result
2nd June 2016 10:15GMT                                            2nd June 2016 23:30 GMT  the difference is 13 hours late!

Not pleased with the time of the day result. I think we should be pleased with the prediction, but here is what the reality is/was. The timing was off by 13 hours this is poor timing. However, we must understand the reasons. Once our prediction date is fixed, we look for triggers within that date to force the event. Yesterday, I spoke to someone in facebook called Umang Sthapit in the post 'Tracking Conditions on the Ground in Post-Earthquake Nepal', having realised the event did not happen on the trigger time, I looked for a second trigger at night and warned him. 
I said to him to be careful tonight that the danger window is not over yet. You can check it is still there. So We did not get the prediction time right, but I tried to correct it.

Overall this was a good prediction. The event is the first of this month and obviously we will see more. The important thing is 'improvement improvement and progress' to try to avoid losses to people.
We thank the people who suport us, and encourage us to continue. We need your moral support to try to sort things out for the sake of everybody who may suffer from such catastrophic events.
Be Safe Be Good!

MagnitudeML 4.4
Date time2016-06-02 23:25:30.0 UTC
Location27.96 N ; 85.62 E
Depth10 km
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  1. I've been following this website for a few months now. I didn't use to give much importance to the EQ predictions as I thought EQs are natural and cannot be predicted. But your predictions have turned out to be quite accurate for Nepal in recent weeks. Keep up the good work!

  2. Earthquake Predict team, congrats to your techniques....your predictions are right bang on time...for Nepal quakes

  3. Hello, your predictions are not bad at all, at least we can take some precaution as even +1 or _1day. As these are very small earthquakes so they don't sound big thing for now but when there are bigger and life taking quakes,your prediction can saver millions of life.
    So you must keep up predicting, slowing in due time you will be able to predict exact time as well. All the best