MINOR SOLAR STORM today

Kp index rose suddenly to 5 and Solar Wind Speed rose to 533km/s leading to minor solar storm warning...

Solar Wind now:  533.0 km/s, Kp=5
IMF Bz: -15.2 nT South

Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Nov 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 03-Nov 05 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 03-Nov 05 2015

            Nov 03     Nov 04     Nov 05
00-03UT        6 (G2)     6 (G2)     4     
03-06UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     3     
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          2     
09-12UT        6 (G2)     3          2     
12-15UT        6 (G2)     3          3     
15-18UT        7 (G3)     2          3     
18-21UT        6 (G2)     2          3     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     2          3     

Rationale: Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) level,
with an isolated period G3 (Strong) storming, are likely on day one (3
Nov) due to the expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) and subsequent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1-G2 level are likely on day two (4
Nov) as CH HSS effects continue. Day three (5 Nov) is expected to see a
return to active or less conditions.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2015

              Nov 03  Nov 04  Nov 05
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm all three days (03-05 Nov) due to the flare potential and more
favorable, Earth-connected position of Region 2445.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 03-Nov 05 2015

              Nov 03        Nov 04        Nov 05
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts all three days (03-05 Nov)
due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 2443 and 2445.

G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Impacts
Power systems: Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: Surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.).



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